JSRNew GDP projections from PWC are out, so it is time for updated military budget projections!
Using a 67/33 weighted average of MER/PPP GDP projections for 2030 from PWC, coupled with 5yr average of military spending as a proportion of GDP according to SIPRI, if current allocations are maintained we can project the following “effective” military budgets in 2030, in 2016 USD:
USA: $939bn
China: $576bn
India: $293bn
Russia: $128bn
UK: $78bnOf course there is uncertainty both with respect to the underlying economic projections, and an even greater level of uncertainty regarding future resource allocations (i.e. military spending as a proportion of GDP).
(Posted here so JSR would see it. Russia is doomed, doomed! :eek:)
yes Russia is waiting for India and China to get richer and US to be overpopulated.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-goes-food-shoppingto-russia-1484649046
China Goes Food Shopping—to Russia‘Everything that can be consumed by a human being in China is something they’re interested in,’ Russian official says
At some point Russia will introduce more weopons in Middleast. that will good for its exports, training and filling the banks. It is several step ahead in military power the rest can only dream.
https://sputniknews.com/military/201702141050676304-russia-israel-nuclear-weapons/
Global Security to Deteriorate Should Israel Obtain Nuclear Weapons – Moscow
JSRBest A-A: definitely something that employs the METEOR.
F-15? No chance..
That would be MIG31 and Su-35 they provide the highest top speed and altitude for missile launches. MIG35 is close second to them.
JSR. Other than that, why not include T-129, then?
This T-129 tell enough about rest of Turkish capabilities. It has been over 10 years in this project and how many in active combat with round the clock sorties. compared to more than 300 Russian made transport and attack choppers operating in Syria-Irak theatres.
It is not just MIG29K that got tested but Syrian MIG29s also.
https://sputniknews.com/military/201702141050672732-mig-general-director-interview-for-sputnik/
Trial by Fire: MiG Chief Tells Sputnik That MiG-29s Proved Themselves Over Syria
I’d like to add that the Syrian Air Force has also conducted operations using MiG-29s that were delivered to them earlier, and have also showed their high effectiveness,” the director added
Syria has an estimated 30 MiG-29A, MiG-29UB and MiG-29SM aircraft in its arsenal.
JSR.
With regards to licensed production of 300 F-16’s it shows that Turkey has an aerospace industry. Not many countries can produce entire combat aircraft under licence.
There is Su-30MKI being assembled in India and there is JF17 assembled in Pakistan. What is so special about F-16 assembly in Turkey except for assembling couple of decades ago.
JSRAccording to IAI, it is currently producing F-16 wings, fins, and conformal fuel tanks, F-15 conformal fuel tanks, F-35 wings, and T-38 wings. Boeing has given it manufacturing work on subassemblies of several airliner types.
it some contract work and we don’t know who are the people that outsourcing it there. there could be dual citizens.
According to my files, more than 1,500 early-model Merkavas have been built, and current production is 50-100 per year. By Western standards, that is a good production run. But why are you so obsessed with production numbers? Zeiss makes a small number of lenses in a year compared with the huge production runs by Nikon and Canon, yet Zeiss is still widely regarded as making the best.
rebuilt to what standard? the Turkish M60T standard? current production is 50 to 100?. without production numbers how can you maintain decent force in active duty. not like half backed Turkish invasion of Syria.
Like the wings of the F-35?
like doors of Boeing made in India. you have serious misunderstanding between subcontract work and actual new development.
JSRLet us be a bit more precise. They use imported engines and imported transmissions, as do the main battle tanks manufactured by India, Italy, South Korea, Taiwan, South Korea and Pakistan.
Pay attention it is a lot more than imported engines/transmission. I want to see you understand what I am writing. The word collaboration, alliances, free flow of skilled labor and financials etc. The weakness in engineering led to these countries to produce every thing in limited quantity any thing that is called advanced heavy engineering. they even run out of bombs after brief skirmishes.
https://studyinthestates.dhs.gov/2015/12/united-states-hosts-more-than-80000-south-korean-students
United States Hosts More Than 80,000 South Korean Students
how many tanks Israel or Turkey can produce per year and how many existing they can upgrade per year taken into current battles in the world and how many they can support across the world in active roles. New Russian tanks are every where from Algeria to Turkeminstan to India.
When country has advance capability they can upgrade the older stuff to be closer in effectiveness to the newer ones.
https://sputniknews.com/military/201701211049856690-t-90m-armata-cannon-russia/
The latest modernization of Russia’s main battle tank, the T-90, will embrace the firepower capabilities of the advanced T-14 Armata. The Uralvagonzavod machine building company recently published the tank’s photo for the first time. The T-90M will receive a modernized smoothbore 125mm 2A82-1M cannon, the one used in the Armata The tank is now protected from enemy fire with the Malakhit reactive armor and the Afghanit active protection system, which were designed for the Armata family of vehicles
To argue that this means that these nations are not tank manufacturers would be like trying to argue that the manufacturer of my camera is not a ‘real’ camera manufacturer because one of the specialised lenses that I use was a rebadged product that the company obtained from another well-known lens manufacturer. For tank and camera manufacturer the same rule applied – if the size of the production run does not make the creation of an indigenous subsystem economically viable and the suitable good-quality product is available elsewhere, use that existing product. As an engineer would say – “Don’t reinvent the wheel”.
they are mere assembler of yesterday technology. That’s why you never see Israeli or Turks adding there own composites to F-16 or enhancing its engine or increasing its payload. I have doubt even on effectiveness of radar enhancement. it takes them ages to build few modern tanks. and I am very generous in using the word modern with imported tech.
MIG can do it. look at MIG29SMT.
I will not digress into the subject of the Leopards – exactly what happened has been questioned, and this is an aviation form.
yup no clue.
JSRseriously?
Afghanistan, 2nd Iraq invasion, the drone wars under Bush and Obama, the wars in Libya and Syria, the war against ISIS…the US alone has 246 Predators and MQ-1C Grey Eagles; 126 MQ-9 Reapers; 491 RQ-7 Shadows; and 33 RQ-4 Global Hawk large systems
if UCAVs are so useless, then why is the Pentagon buying so many?
what kind of history you repeating?. Did Russia supported insurgents on same scale as US supported Afghanis in 1980s?. than you will find the true effectiveness of those limited payload UCAVs against unlimted supply of cannon fodder globally. Ruaf operations are designed in Syria assuming that Insurgents have airdefence or another airforce will intervene.
the only other new combat aircraft the USAF is buying is the F-35, which is a flying joke when deployed against insurgents, and a waste of money in any operation where the enemy doesn’t have first class air defences
It is not F35 its the whole USAF problem of shortage with pilots. once you invade another branch into airoperations it decrease its effectiveness.
there I do agree, notably the USAF insisted when it started to operate UCAVs that they would be flown by experienced pilots
unsurprisingly pilots hated this, wasting years of world class flight experience sitting in a container, and many quit because they signed up to fly, not to control toy aircraft
damage is already. unless they can boost recruitment efforts. USAF will get smaller and smaller with limited operational ability. Ruaf is sustaining 6 Tu-22M3 each time on Syria sorties. B-52 or B-1 fly one or two at atime.
meanwhile the USArmy used NCOs to fly its drones, and actually performed better than the USAF (notably because they chose to equip their UCAVs with autmoated take-off and landing equipment, something the USAF purposefully chose not to do and led to a lot of UAV crashes)
I did not say drones not important but it has secondary value at tactical level. at strategic level its satellites and big AWACS and JSTAR type planes.
yes, the Saudi’s where so desperate for UAVs in that theater that they bought Chinese ones
one of the wealthiest countries in the world needed them so bad that they bought Chinese knock offs, because 400 of the most advanced combat aircraft in the world were not enough
how many they bought and at how much price? Just look at F-15SA and EF2000 prices.
Predator Unit cost: $20 million (includes four aircraft with sensors, ground control station and Predator Primary satellite link) (fiscal 2009 dollars)
that 2009.
yes, and if the Russians had air combat capable UCAVs then everyone else would be even more scared of crossing them, because they’d be facing waves of cheap, expendable and super manouverable jets that’ll face down F-22’s without blinking
UCAV does not have AAM or radars nor big self protection pods. its waste of manpower.
unfortunately those fancy Sukhoi’s didn’t scare Turkey enough and cost the lives of two Su-24 pilots. if that had been a UCAV those kids would not have lost their fathers
It killed 50k Turkish backed insurgents and force a humiliating surrender plus Turkey accept all Russian economic terms on import and export.
the US is the biggest operator of UCAVs in the world, are you saying it doesn’t have any heavy engineering?
that’s why 50% of JSF and over 70% Boeing 787 is built from outside US skilled labor.
Israel has some of the most advanced aircraft and weapons on the planet, yet they still put a lot of money and time into UCAVs, which are also an integral part of their most important combat missions
what is advanced in them?
and the problem of Turkey right now in their offensive against ISIS isn’t that they don’t have enough F-16s, it’s that they don’t have enough UCAVs
they have 300 combat aircraft airforce and they fighting hardly 50km from the border not fighting 2000km from the border.
JSRI needed a good laugh in order to begin the week, and JSR has provided it!
Both Turkey and Israel have developed and manufactured main battle tanks (which can hardly be considered light engineering), and both have a well-developed aircraft industry.
I know what I am talking about. Those tanks are built with imported technology and at best match early 90s T-90s. Have you looked at those Germanic tanks in Syria cant handle 1960s technology ATGMs. Soviet union was 2 decade behind in implementing technology. Russia is one decade ahead in implementing technology.
JSRI think that’s true, Russia doesn’t have the industry or the experience to field advanced UAVs at this time
that said this is an obvious fault of their military leadership, UAVs have proven their value many times over by now, the failure of Russia to keep up is costing them now
how has UAV proven especially the large one proven there worth and at what cost?. just look at Irak chopper fleet both transport and attack. Look at Syria chopper and fighter fleet. I am sure 99% bombs/rockets/guns were dropped by choppers and attack fighters. It is pure nonsense that armed UCAV can change the course of war or any practical worth. It inhibits airforce capabilities to properly train pilots. take valuable manpower from critical tasks. if you still not understanding it than look at operation decisive storm in yemen with it 400 combat aircraft and 20,000 bombs dropped.
yeah but if an Su-30 averages at $50 million and Russia were to be able to buy Predator class UAVs at say $5 million then they’d be able to field 10 UAVs for the cost of one Sukhoi, probably costs about the same in fuel too
Predator at $5m? It is the Sukhoi that kept every one else out of Syrian theatre. If Russia brought those cheap uncapable UAV with no big self protection pods, no antiship/antiradiaton missiles, Turks/Saudi would have greatly expanded there war on Syria. UAVs are for country like Turkey and Israel with no heavy engineering background. for Russia UAVs are the side business not the main business.
JSRWell if Russia is going to be building more Il-96s they should try and flog a couple off to China for VIP service too. Looking at China’s current VIP transport arrangements is enough to make one think the CCP still believes in communism.
Chinese don’t believe in communism at all that’s why ARJ21 and C919 basically 90% external tech and built at places that will have rising cost of living as labor will have to compete. Aircraft manufacturing especially large one is very labor intensive work. one large assembly plant can easily have more than 15000 workers.
JSRThats again a sad after thought that they had to loose an entire group of military personal to make them realise these are old types.
I think SSJ-100 will be major benefactor of this order followed by Tu-214
The problem with SSJ100 is too short range for the tasks even the limited capacity business version. remember military planes need to fly in zig zag formation to avoid hostile airspace so range is very important.
Tu-214 equipped with PD14M will get about 14000km range in special versions.
http://rbth.com/news/2016/07/05/russias-defense-ministry-signs-contract-for-3rd-tu-214r-plane_608981
Russia’s Defense Ministry signs contract for 3rd Tu-214R plane
As Slyusar said, the Tu-214R plane has met the expectations of Russian servicemen.
JSR$300 mil is too much, $200 mil a pop is the typical figure with all options exercised.. (Iraq, Bahrain, Oman)
Those are either repeat orders or mostly old orders signed more than 5 years ago. new buyer for F-16 in 2017 with comparable system capability like Su-30 will be paying close $300m if not more. Even the so called Turkey cant upgrade F-16 with electronic scanning radars cheaply. Russia mid life upgrades are also cheaper and comprehensive.
JSRwhat is the total export values of those so called UAVs per year? and how much labor involved in there construction. not to mention designing and whole training mechanism to make it does not crash routinely. its costly investment for single role.
Pilots from various Tu-214 and IL-38/IL-20 you can switch among different roles. I doubt a UAV operator has multifunctional flight experience.
The same will be with loitering with Su-34 with 3000L tank.
JSRmsphere is hoping to prove that Su-30 is roughly same operational cost as f-16
Su-30 has much much lower operating costs. how a plane operates without properly train pilot and ground crews, maintainance parts. have you looked at those costs for new buyers of F-16. $300m per aircraft is realistic figure for initial operational capability for new buyer and close to $200m for repeat F-16 buyers. and those F-16 will not have IRST or big EW pods.
JSRNo, Russian companies just have yet to make a modern half decent one.
what is half decent UAVs? and what is purpose of Tu-214R.
Sign In
