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JSR

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  • in reply to: General Discussion #261967
    JSR
    Participant

    Russia also has to worry about beating India, which also surpassed the Russian economy

    what so called real economists know anything about India?. just look at water situation (unclean and deficient water increases health expenditure component of so called GDP), than look at non productive golds investment including imports, than look at dysfunctional labor market (only catering to lower cost for services to West than produce anything of substance}, than look at non productive investments in Dubai property which produce nothing.

    http://www.emirates247.com/business/expats-have-different-reasons-to-buy-a-dubai-home-2016-09-06-1.640244
    The DLD’s 2016 H1 report states that Indians after UAE locals were the second biggest segment of property investors contributing Dh7.27 billion worth of transactions.

    This thread is not about India/Brazil otherwise I would have explain in much more detail an open air toilet. There is no point in comparing Russia with basket cases like Brazil/India.

    but it will never catch up to China, look at the gdp growth rate. it is parallel. meaning, they will never intersect

    growth rate of what?

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-debt-soars-into-space-1473755429
    Chinese Debt Soars Into Space
    Astronomical credit binge exceeds 2009 stimulus; ‘financial Star Trek’

    I understand China want to become a world power but its educational system is not geared towards produce high tech military-industrial complex. the few bright Chinese are building social media or ecommerce sites. The military procurement system is complete flop. There was no need to produce single engine J-10 kind fighter that cant be used on Aircraft carrier and than recopy aflanker design for carrier. or twin engine JH-7. creating a draggier Y-20 on small engines that has no power projection ability and certainly not multifunctional like IL-476.

    Russia economic and military might is well respected.

    http://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/economy/2016/05/27/Libya-s-eastern-bank-to-issue-Russian-printed-banknotes.html
    Libya’s eastern bank to issue Russian-printed banknotes

    in reply to: General Discussion #262632
    JSR
    Participant

    doesn’t matter what kind of economy Russia is. its not growing. China is growing over 6% every year. even if you think its fake.

    It is debt and environmental pollution growing not quality of life growing that’s why every Chinese fleeing outside China along with money.

    in fact we shouldn’t even compare Russia to China, it is unfair. Russia’s economy isn’t even bigger than pearl river delta provinces in China. When Russia can surpass the pearl river delta economies, then we can talk about China vs Russian econmy.

    yup you cant compare real high tech economy based on scientific and heavy engineering foundation to economy on debt and assembly lines.

    look at the big difference between two border towns at Russia-China

    Russia
    http://static.panoramio.com/photos/large/12480595.jpg

    China
    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d9/Century_square_Manzhouli.jpg/800px-Century_square_Manzhouli.jpg

    these are old Wikipedia picture and Russia not interested in developing border towns. Its China responsibility to upgrade infrastructure towards border for increasing trade with Russia.
    Real wealth is in areas that are far away from Asian factories and overpopulation.

    http://s58.radikal.ru/i162/1601/82/f74fc3041377.jpg
    http://loveopium.ru/content/2015/10/sochi/02s.jpg
    http://loveopium.ru/content/2015/10/sochi/09s.jpg

    in reply to: General Discussion #262694
    JSR
    Participant

    Actually China is an exporter not an importer. Russia is an importer
    IMF knows a lot about GDP, but you can go to world bank or whatever site you want to use. Chinese economy is far larger than Russias and that is why Russia always comes to China for help

    As I mentioned to you before. China does not have real GDP. It is using its labor to assemble stuff based on world wide technology and in the process it has polluted air and water.

    Only Russia alone that can protect China from rest of the world. China has to give tourism, loans, investment to Russia. it has no choice.

    Russia far more imports Chinese stuff than the opposite

    Chinese airlines and tourists use Russian airspace far more than Russians use Chinese airspace.

    also Russia is a resource economy. a slave to whatever saudi arabia and the US decide to output for oil.
    If the US and Saudis decide to change oil prices, Russia can’t do nothing about it

    Russia is not resource economy. It is largest exporter of refined peteroleum products. Its Russia that is increasing oil/gas globally to keep the price lows and destroying every one else economics. How is Vancouver housing bust going for Chinese now?

    http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russian-Firm-Seals-1-Billion-Oil-Rig-Building-Deal-With-Iran.html
    Russian Firm Seals $1 Billion Oil Rig-Building Deal With Iran

    http://seekingalpha.com/news/3202594-reuters-bp-shell-lukoil-reach-deal-restart-iraq-oil-field-investments
    Reuters: BP, Shell, Lukoil reach deal to restart Iraq oil field investments

    https://sputniknews.com/russia/20160831/1044818976/russia-shale-oil-technology.html
    Gazprom Neft has become the first Russian company to apply the full cycle of technologies used worldwide for the exploration and production of shale oil, says the press-release on the company’s website.

    JSR
    Participant

    The Iraqis are also the same guys who lost half their country to a bunch of ignorant fanatics mostly driving pickup trucks… so I can’t say I put a great deal of stock in their expertise where military matters are concerned.

    It has more to do with traitors. I am sure with Russia weopons , training and revamp government system, Irakis will be the most competenet arab military force.
    Look at arab history. IF soviet union hadn’t supported Egypt. would they have got Suez canal and camp david (land plus billions). would Iraq stand a chance against Iran.
    Arabs can only be respected if they 100% rely on Russian weopons and Russian banks.

    http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/sword-victory-presented-putin-bahraini-king-453188057
    Bahrain’s king hands ‘sword of victory’ to Putin after Syria talks

    in reply to: General Discussion #262819
    JSR
    Participant

    no, Russia cannot survive on isolation. doesn’t have enough resources or investment. thats why they were so desperate for Turkey to come back, and bending over for Chinese investment.

    Russia high technical level (Bangladesh.Myanamar, Pakistan, Iran all the big Chinese trade partners prefer Russian high tech stuff), supereme control over natural resources, biggest exporter of grains to Middleast, control over trade routes. Only Russia alone can close suez canal and northern route for ships. both bases in Crimea and Syria are at the most effective locations.
    Its Erdogan went to Stpetersburg and Turkey is willilng to go along with Russian interests. for Turkey Arabs are disposable to be used against Kurds but Russia is permanent.

    China is the world’s largest economy not by trading just western goods, but they trade everything. Everything is made in China, even most things in Russia.
    look at this graph. Russia is invisible

    China don’t own GDP. You import stuff, refine it based on Japanese/Korean/Western specifications and export it. You don’t control world wide airbases to control trade routes for trade. Chinese need to send mililons of students to West to get educated. it has no indigenous potential to create breakthrough technologies.
    Only Russia alone can provide the clean water and natural gas to China in required quantities otherwise coal and other pollution will destroy Chinese health system. it is unsustainable.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fc/World_share_of_nominal_GDP_IMF_WEO_2015.png/250px-World_share_of_nominal_GDP_IMF_WEO_2015.png

    what IMF knows anything about GDP?. how much is UAE GDP according to IMF? and that is very simple economy not complex like Russia. how UAE got over $2T worth of soverign wealth funds when GDP is so tiny.

    in reply to: General Discussion #262934
    JSR
    Participant

    no power difference is very clear

    the US and Europe easily stopped Russian banks after Ukraine
    the US and Europe wouldn’t dare do the same to Chinese banks.
    you can see who is the weaker country.

    Russia does not intend to do too much business with west so they not bother with banks. The western ideas can weaken the country. there is various bans on tourist travels. Chinese bankruptcy is sure thing. its a unnatural construct.

    Only Russia can provide fresh air and clean water at reasonable price.

    http://rbth.com/business/2016/07/28/hotel-occupancy-in-moscow-and-st-petersburg-soars-to-68_616047
    The Chinese are the absolute leaders among foreign tourists to Russia. According to the Federal Tourism Agency, in 2015, 1.35 million Chinese visited Russia, with 537,000 of them entering by the visa-free permission.

    “The tourist flow from China to Russia has increased threefold over the last four years,” said Svetlana Pyatikhatka, executive director of the Mir Bez Granits (World Without Borders) tourist association.

    With steadily growing demand for hospitality service, Chinese tourists are choosing luxury hotels more and more often

    lots of cartoons of Russia being China’s jr partner. you will not find one of the opposite.

    Russia can arm India/Vietnam/Myanmar/Indonesia/Thailand. China has very little to offer to the world and is no position in arms trade.

    no matter how much you want to deny. numbers do not lie
    world’s largest economy is bigger than an economy thats almost the same size as Brazil

    world largest economy made of dealing with western goods and trade does not give any confidence that it can fight wars. it can trade insults with west but it cant do anything practical. that’s why I put emphasis on word practical. Brazil is broke. Just on Olympic alones Russia spend 10 times more than Brarzil and that was a decade ago.

    in reply to: General Discussion #262985
    JSR
    Participant

    http://media.cagle.com/38/2014/05/25/148876_600.jpg

    Actually Russia is surviving only because of China.

    Actually its China that is solely surviving due to Russia. without Russian airspace how will Chinese people travels around the world for tourism and investments. Its Russian energy and Russian protected pipeline system that enable Chinese bargaining power with Middleast. otherwise it will have to stand in line like Japan/Korea.

    Russia foolishly invaded Ukraine instead of doing it through soft power. Got defeated by the west using economic power.

    it was demonstration of Russian land power to swiftly occupy a large area. West economic power is worthless as far as Russia is concerned as they don’t compete in same sectors.

    It is only staying afloat because of China, and it will be that way for the forseeable future.

    It is China that is keep afloat due to Russia otherwise West and Arabs will squeeze all the money from China. Only Russia alone can provide clean air to China.

    The two countries are allies, but its quite clear who is the junior partner.
    It is no wonder that for many of Russia’s new projects, they are always seeking Chinese assistance and cooperation

    Yup its quite clear who is practical leader and who is a follower. Russia demonstrated airpower in Syria with 20,000 sorties. China has neither the will nor the capacity to demonstrate such practical power.
    Moreover Russia is now using the former Brtish empire approach of empire building by using others. Turkey is big candidate due to its skills in doing large scale construction projects in Middleast heat and its ready to use military approach. China cant find such partner as its not a leader.

    http://www.dailysabah.com/energy/2016/09/02/turkish-russian-joint-fund-to-be-used-in-syrias-reconstruction-akkuyu-nuclear-plant
    A Turkish-Russian investment fund is to be established and used in the reconstruction of third world countries and particularly war-torn Syria, as well as in the construction of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant.

    in reply to: General Discussion #263111
    JSR
    Participant

    No, for reasons mentioned above by others, and that the US has a number of well-armed allies that have zero tolerance for China as the world’s hegemonic power.

    One must also realize that Russia really has no interest in a further rise-of-China. The conventional and economic balance of power between Russia and China has shifted so much already that further Chinese gains in power will be perceived as Russian losses. Direct Russian involvement in armed conflict over the SCS or ECS is out of the question. Russia wouldn’t do anything beyond sharing intelligence – if that.

    China is completely depended on Russia for critical elments of power. and its in Russia own interest to magnify China threat. The bigger China threat the more weopons Russia will be able to sell to various countries in Asia as most of these countries cant afford western weopons in quantities and speed of procurement. Korean/Japanese ship building is going towards bankruptcy. Russia interests is either in control of Middleast or complete dismantling of Middleast. China can greatly accelerate this process.

    Asia is extremely depended on Middleast.
    http://gulfbusiness.com/philippines-withdraws-welfare-officer-failing-help-saudi-workers/

    in reply to: General Discussion #263431
    JSR
    Participant

    Dubious. It definitely can’t beat the whole of NATO and the EU though and China is only made strong by the fact North America and Europe trade with them and create jobs for them, all that can disappear if China’s attitude persists.

    EU cannot assemble even 5000 soldiers for high intensity fight. The days of US fighting land battles across a continent are over. the logistics and economics are not there. that’s why the doctorine is leading from behind.

    We can beat them without even firing a bullet. The Soviet Union wasn’t defeated by trading with them and creating jobs for them, and that’s the approach we need to take with China.

    you did not beat them it is arabs put dollar as reserve currency but with diffusion of financial system it is less of importance. Russia new military power is designed to produce carrots and sticks at same time for West.

    http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/09/03/Russia-s-Putin-sees-Deputy-Crown-Prince-bin-Salman-as-a-very-reliable-partner-.html
    Russian President Vladimir Putin called Saudi’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman a “very reliable partner with whom you can reach agreements, and can be certain that those agreements will be honored,” in an interview with Bloomberg on Friday

    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2016-08/13/content_26459520.htm
    Chinese tourists spend $2b in Russia last year: federal tourism agency

    JSR
    Participant

    More excuses. What was wrong with using their fighters to shoot the planes down?

    Nothing wrong with fighters just soviets did not deploy there latest air to air systems. A more determined leadership with better systems could have changed the war sooner in such directions to drag rest of middleaat into it. Its not the weapon systems but political system that was incapable to conduct successful operation.

    in reply to: Chinese Air Power Thread 17 #2149414
    JSR
    Participant

    Trucks, tanks, pipelines, agriculture equipment. They were among the first to recognize shale potential in US. high intelligence.
    http://pipevalves.weebly.com/blog/russian-pipe-producer-tmk-benefits-from-shale-revolution

    JSR
    Participant

    When have Communists ever told the truth? Would you believe North Korean claims and the likes of our friend Kim Jong-un. Don’t you think if VPAF’s claimed kills were legitimate western media would have uncovered it by now, i.e. families who’d lost loved ones. These kinds of things can’t be hidden that easily. Whereas in Communist land you just threaten to shoot anyone who doesn’t follow the official line.

    Please watch the ‘Wings over Vietnam – Linebacker’ documentary on YouTube. By the second week of Linebacker II, they weren’t even sending up interceptor aircraft, so one would think there was a reason for that.

    Soviet didnot install S300 in Afghanistan border areas to create no fly zone nor they dropped same quantity of bombs that US dropped in Vietnam and Soviets were dealing with newer radars and SAMs like stingers at the time. Soviet didnot use the strong points of there power. It was dysfunctional effort from commies where equal representation in power desirable to republics than competence. Just look at the location of factories.

    JSR
    Participant

    Depends how you mean ‘intervened’. It certainly helped, but there was no official involvement, e.g. tanks on the ground, full scale air war. The Soviets fell behind when they didn’t seize on the importance of electronics and computing.

    By your definition even Soviet Union didnot officially intervene as more than 60℅ of troops were from centeral Asian republics not the too train and war was not fought with decisive determination of airpower like US in Vietnam. Soviet tried to seize importance in very narrow field but they could not implement computing on wide scale in society. No doubt most of tech companies where computing is core in 20 the century are from former Russian empire. where does the Oracle founder, Bloomberg and even nutinyaho coming from. There countless people like them.

    JSR
    Participant

    During the Cold War, the west wouldn’t have dared intervene in Syria.

    Well west already interfered in Afghanistan in 1980s and Pakistan airforce believe shot Soviet/Afghan airforce. Soviet Union was unable to force Warsaw pact to fight on its behalf in Afghanistan on large scale like NATO in afghanisran. The point I am making is Soviet Union was lost cause from 70s and those things are reflected in slow and inefficient military-industrial complex.

    in reply to: Russia moving tac air troops to Syria #2150273
    JSR
    Participant

    I get my S-400 information from various sources. For example, some is stuff that I was given by Almaz-Antey. while some comes from Almaz-Antey via a third party. Some is from various Western technical analyses I have seen or been given.

    These are unreliable source of information. I can write paragraph on it but for sake of clarity I will leave it there. There are others here write paragraphs without substance.

    By technology, I was referring to the system’s overall architecture. At the subsystem level, the technology was completely modernised wherever possible, while new software algorithms were developed for the missile-guidance functions. However, much of the basic system architecture – for example the use of a rear-illuminated passive electronically-scanned array in the 92N6 ‘Grave Stone’ radar – draws on that the S-300. (It is hardly surprising that the original designation of the S-400 system was S-300PMU-3.)

    You simply don’t understand technology. Simple example. When Irbis radar was flight tested a decade ago its performance was more than twice of Bars. Than bars radar took another decade worth of modernization and more than 500 produced and it still can’t reach IRBIS performance. This is called leap frogging in technology. S400 and S300 relationship more complicated than that.

    The shortage of defence funding in Russia during the 1990s and later, and its effect on various defence programmes has been well documented.

    Shortage of funds? The foundation of highly competitive military industrial complex was laid down based on 90s experience when Russia sold largest amount fighters, licenses, jet engines and missiles. The same happened to oil and gas industry. This another topic you have little understanding.

    And that is all I am going to say on this subject. I have no desire to get locked into another extended debate – retirement should mean no longer having to talk about, write about, or lecture about defence technology.

    I haven’t seen any such thing about defense technology in your writings.

Viewing 15 posts - 1,291 through 1,305 (of 4,319 total)