Well, since Brazil had denied it, it’s probably just academic.

From a strictly commercial-strategic standpoint, though, the supposed swap is more about the Embraers than the 12 Sukhois. Brazil doesn’t necessarily need the Sukhois as it faces little threat being as it is the dominant economy and political entity in South America.

But it would benefit Embraer to enter the Russian market. And not only enter a new market but to possibly short-circuit a potential competitor in the RRJ.

The Embraers are world-class commercial jets beyond anything Russia currently has to offer in the same categories. The ERJ145 alone has sold over 800 planes – to airlines operating on Western standards. If Aeroflot and Sibir and other are able to get ahold of them, this would open a floodgate for a best-selling product that is already on the market. The RRJ still has a way to go and if Russian airlines are given Embraers, the project could become a stillborn.

But all this is just academic analysis since Brazil has denied the swap.

“BRASILIA, Brazil, Oct 18 (Reuters) – The Brazilian government on Monday denied it was planning to buy 12 Russian Sukhoi fighter jets in exchange for 50 passenger aircraft built by Brazil’s Embraer (EMBR4.SA: Quote, Profile, Research) (ERJ.N: Quote, Profile, Research) .

It’s amazing how often this happens, even news coming from quasi-official sources like the Moscow Times.

BTW, Aeroflot have been operating B777 & Airbus A320’s for a number of years now – so the ‘buy Russian first’ policy has been relaxed for some time.

Ah, Flanker_man, there is a difference between “buy Russia first” and “buy Russia only.”

Aeroflot had used Airbus and Boeing on international routes since the early 1990s. The reason is that those are geared towards inbound travelers from the West that would be more comforatble on Western liners. For example, even Aeroflot’s routes to Finland (a short regional flight from St. Petersburg) use Airbus because the Finnish officials has gently suggested that Aeroflot would do better using western aircraft.

Aeroflot and other Russian airlines are asked to buy Russian first if there were no outside pressure, especially in the feeder lines and internal routes. The Embraers, though, would cut into exactly those internal routes which are to be the sole province of the RRJ project.

From the Moscow Times on the Su-35/Embraer “swap”:
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/10/19/041.html

Tuesday, October 19, 2004. Page 5.

Report: Russia, Brazil Plan to Swap Fighters, Airliners

…

But a senior aviation industry official said the move would contradict state efforts to make domestic airlines buy more Russian-made passenger jets — such as Sukhoi’s Russian Regional Jet, or RRJ, which is expected to sell by the hundreds after it goes into mass production in 2007.

“Swapping Sukhoi jets for Brazilian aircraft would further increase our companies’ dependence on Western plane makers. … That’s not what the government essentially wants to do,” a source in a large Russian aerospace company said

In fact, here is a recent news on the MiG-29 upgrade. It seems it had turned into a bit of a disaster.

http://www.eic.rousse.bg/en/news.htm
10.02.2004 – BULGARIA BREAKS UP WITH RUSSIA’S RSK OVER MIG-29 UPGRADE

“BULGARIA BREAKS UP WITH RUSSIA’S RSK OVER MIG-29 UPGRADE

The contract with Russia’s RSK MiG for the upgrade of Bulgaria’s MiG-29 fighter aircraft might be terminated by the end of the week, Bulgaria’s Defence Minister Nikolay Svinarov announced on February 9.

Bulgaria contracted RSK MiG in March 2002 to repair the MiG-29 fighter aircraft. Under the deal, RSK was to subcontract 45 percent of the upgrade works to the Plovdiv-based plant of Terem.

Russia’s RSK MiG agreed to grant all licenses to the joint venture based in Plovdiv for the upgrade of Bulgaria’s MiG-29 fighter jets, which was one of the reasons why Sofia preferred the Russian company to Germany’s EADS.

Bulgarian officials have repeatedly complained that the Russians are months behind schedule and have moved most of the works to Russia.”

Here we go
http://www.defense-aerospace.com/cgi-bin/client/modele.pl?prod=46327&session=dae.5418568.1098130356.QXQjtMOa9dUAAFR8Xw0&modele=jdc_1

“Deputy Minister of Defense Ilko Dimitrov signed today, September 23, a Memorandum of understanding with Gripen International and with BAE Systems Information and Electronic Systems International Inc.

The documents define the opportunities for cooperation between the Ministry of Defense and the two companies in the area of the modernization of the Bulgarian Armed Forces.

Partnership with Gripen International covers the modernization of the Air Forces, while the cooperation with BAE Systems – modernization of the information and communication systems, the command and control systems, as well as the IFF system, identification friend or foe.

Signed papers envisage the creation of working groups with representatives of the Ministry and the two companies, who will develop programs for joint activities. “