This is a common picture… Both Bell and Sikorsky failed to provide a larger offer for light and middle class. Bell still tries to sell the same old Huey in partially new clothes (and the same old Cobra) while Sikorsky (Boeing) concentrates on the S-70 which is far too heavy for many countires and especially for civilian market. Apache has a pretty bad reputation when it comes to survivalability and the Delta does not help much better with its tremendous costs and testing problems (Hellfire).
Sikorsky’s S-70 would probably be dominant in the Chinese market today if there were a steady source for spares. Sikorsky is still fighting to sell the S-92 to the Chinese civilian market (even though the S-92 has a Chinese partner.) The greatest fear is an American embargo since the S-92 could be considered dual use.
The European share of the Chinese market – and therefore the world market since China’s projected need is over 10,000(!!!!)* helos in the coming decades – is dominant today.
Eurocopter has a machine for every possible weight range current needed by both the Chinese military and civilian market:
Light: EC-120, Squirrel
Medium: Dauphin
Heavy: Super Frelon
So hundreds of Eurocopter-based machines from the above four and that doesn’t even include Eurocopter’s involvement in the biggest Chinese helo project, the 5/6 ton next generation program.
The Mi-17 has done well in China with over a 100 sold to the PLA but the last order was in 1996 or 1998 IIRC.
Kamovs would fill a niche as the onboard machines for the larger PLAN destroyers
But Eurocopter looks like it would dominate the vast majority of the Chinese market from top to bottom.
For the airliner market, Boeing has lost on 757, 767 and 777 series.. Except Japan you won’t really see many of these abroad the US, especially 757 and 767 are somehow inpopular. MDs are slowly fading away and no new models are coming, Airbus has really kicked a$$ with the A3x0 series. The 380 seems to become another Boeing’s funeral, this time for the heavy weight class, no idea if the Dreamliner will take the market shares back..
Boeing was once dominant in the Chinese market. In fact, there were years when Chinese orders constituted up to 1/3 of Boeing airliners sales. But in the last two years, Airbus simply took over the Chinese market which is projected to be the second largest in the world after the US.
The problem for Boeing in China is similar to Sikorsky’s problem. Boeing had the natural lead in China but has lost it mainly because of the possibility of embargo.
The Dreamliner is make or break for Boeing now. It doesn’t really have a line outside the 7E7 that can outsell Airbus in the coming years.
The ability of the 7E7 to sell in China** is crucial since nearly all growth in the carrier business is centered on new demand there, Europe and N. America being fully saturated.
I expect the same to happen in the fighter class. Eurocanards should prevail, F-16s are goners, Eagles are taking their very last chances in Korea and maybe Japan (or the F-2 should burry any chances for multirole Eagles?) but it won’t take long unless US get clever enough to set the stealth characteristics for the JSF free. Raptor will be unreachable for 99% of world’s economics and the inpopular US embargoing policy won’t help to create the image of US as stable and reliable partner, as well.. And, finally, who needs a specialized $200mil air superiority fighter today? The artificial F/A-22 coding won’t trick those who know the situation.
Actually, military aircraft is the one area where the US will continue its dominance in Asia. American military aircraft in China is not possible but US alliances with the richest nation in Asia (Japan, Korea and Taiwan) basically ensure that American planes (F-15K, JSF, new F-16s) will continue to be sold there.
Of course, western embargos on China’s military aircraft market means this is the one space where Russian products have a chance. But any lifting of the European embargo and you’ll see far more buying from Europe than Russia. Eurocopter and Airbus aren’t flukes in China.
I think the situtation of Loral and other US satellite makers will eventually affect other American aerospace companies like Boeing and Sikorsky.
American satellite makers once dominate 80 percent of the world’s satellite market. But in 1998 the ban on sales of American satellites to China began and American market shares had plummeted to around 30% today.
The embargo not only forced China to redouble its own satellite design and launch programs but forced it to adopt European standards and designs as well. The Gallileo and Double Star projects are direct consequences. The GPS system for China’s transportation network will be European based when by all rights it should American. The communications satellites for the 2008 Olympics will be Alcatel’s instead of Hughes.
Losing the standards battle is much worse than losing sales to direct competition. European standards will ensure a generation of Chinese civilian pilots, technicians and engineer to grow up on European equipment. It means the Chinese will look first to Europe for any new product, relegating American equivalents to secondary considerations.
It would be very interesting to see what happens in the coming years.
Notes:
* http://www.aviationweek.com/shownews/02asia1/topsto03.htm
“China could prove to be the world’s largest market for helicopters over the next two decades. The country will likely need more than 10,000 helicopters by 2020, with a market value of $84 billion”
** http://www.guardian.co.uk/airlines/story/0,1371,1237185,00.html
“The dogfight between Airbus and Boeing yesterday moved to China when the European plane-maker said it had won an order worth more than $2bn to supply 20 jets to China Eastern Airlines.
Airbus’s second Chinese order in as many months came less than 24 hours after Boeing said it would build key parts of its new 7E7 Dreamliner in mainland China. The US company hopes to win orders for some 200 Dreamliners there in the coming months after securing a deal for 50 from Japan’s ANA and two from Air New Zealand. “
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