I’ll get us started with the Chinese industry 😀

Fighters
Shenyang: big brother of China’s aviation industry and traditionally the premiere fighter builder. Current products/developments: J-8II, J-11, J-11B, XXJ
OUTLOOK: Under pressure to keep its top slot as Chengdu is gaining greater prestige and international sales. The indigenized J-11 and the XXJ is critical to its future.

Chengdu: probably the most modern aviation firm in China today; a focus on international markets and western methods. Current products/developments: J-7PG/G, FC-1, J-10, J-10B, possibly J-10C
OUTLOOK: a stable of exportable products and at least two planes that could be sold in bulk to the PLAAF. The J-10 will bought in the 100s, the FC-1 possibly up to 1000 world-wide (according to some reports, 1000 for the PLAAF alone.) And even if the FC-1 doesn’t pan out for the PLAAF as its rank and file ac, the backup is another CAC product, the F-7MF.

Trainers/Light Attack
Guizhou: traditionally, the leading jet fighter trainer builder in China. Unfortunately, those trainers depended on providing pilots for the massive J-7 fleet of a bygone era. Current products/developments: JJ-7, FT-7, FT-7PG, JL-9/FTC2000
OUTLOOK: It really needs the FTC-2000 “Mountain Eagle” to work out. The speed with which this plane was developed and flown is encouraging and will give it a leg up on competition as a lead-in trainer for the FC-1. The bad thing is it has a turbojet and an older body design (albeit with different intakes) that is based on the JJ-7 and the MiG-21.

Hongdu: the similar to CAC but in the trainers space, an upstart that broke with the Chinese industry’s old moribound commie ways with a the K-8 based largely on western ideas and methods back in the 1990s. If there is anything as a nice “little” company in China’s aviation industry, this is it. Beside the trainers, much of its business comes from agricultural prop planes. Current products/developments: JL-8, L-15 (rumored limited production of Q-5s, probably for export)
OUTLOOK: HAIC includes within its ranks the Nanchang bureau. For those who study Chinese aviation, Nanchang is important because it designed and built the Q-5. This particular plane was built with little funding and kept alive during the Cultural Revolution by a few enthusiasts. It later became a major part of the PLAAF and was exported in good numbers. The K-8 is a similar underdog story with 25% funding from Pakistan, marginal support from the PLAAF and was hurt by an US embargo on its powerplant early in its life. But it had sold well, with an unheard of production line sale to Egypt. The development of the WS-11 has allowed the K-8 to begin entering the PLAAF in very large numbers as a basic/intermediate trainer. (Introduction into the PAF is also picking up.) The WS-11 will also allow the L-15 to be viable AJT choice for the PLAAF.

Bombers/military lift
Xian: China’s premier bomber builder (since Harbin had moved to helos.) Broke the mold in the late 1980s with the JH-7, the first western influenced design in China. Heavily involved in the civil parts industry and has some very good equipment because of it. Unfortunately, with the winding down of the H-6 production, this is one company with huge overcapacity left over from the old commie era. Current products/developments: Y-7, H-6D, JH-7, JH-7A
OUTLOOK: the JH-7A looks like it will go into mass production for the Navy. The key is probably the Qinling engine which means an all indigenous craft. Beyond the JH-7A, the future looks a bit murky for Xian on the military end (the Y-7 being rather important as a feeder plane in China’s civilian market.)

Shaanxi: China’s military airlift producers. It’s signature product is the Y-8. The Y-8 is a minor export success but is a major part of the PLAAF lift and recon/survey capability (which isn’t all that great.)
OUTLOOK: Essentially a one product company, military-wise. But there are supposed to be several major AWACs/AWE projects involving the Y-8 platform, including a planned mass produced early warning system for the Navy.

Rotary
Harbin: Harbin was the PRC archtypical mass production monolith in the old Pre-reform era. Harbin once filled the skies and flight lines with hundreds and hundreds of H-5 bombers. It had moved on to mainly helicopters for the military end of things.
OUTLOOK: Z-11, Z-9, Z-8 and a fairly nifty little seller in the Y-12 should keep this company healthy. There is also the heretofore mysterious WZ-10 and the proposed 5.5 ton medium lift copter. The Chinese military needs to expand its rotary fleet literally by hundreds. A massive amount of work from the military alone for company that has over 15,000 employees.

(LATER EDIT) The Z-11 and Z-8 are actually licensed produced by Changhe Aircraft.

http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/2004/06/13/news/news02.asp

It looks like the purported FC-1 sales to Zimbabwe is causing a bit of stir in South Africa.

As usual, an American publication starts the fearmongering.

Zimbabwe’s fighter jets spark fears of arms-race
Sunday Times Foreign Desk

ZIMBABWE’S order for more than 240-million worth of jet fighters from China flies in the face of a request by South African Foreign Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma that the country stop selling arms in sub-Saharan Africa.

According to a semi-official US defence intelligence publication, Dlamini-Zuma made the request, during a meeting of the China-South Africa bilateral forum, to head off a possible arms race on the subcontinent.

Military sources in Harare say that Zimbabwe will acquire 12 FC-1s as replacements for the Chengdu F-7s, currently based in Gweru. The FC-1, a lightweight multipurpose fighter based on Russia’s MiG-33, will provide a credible answer to the challenge posed by the 28 JAS-39 Gripen multi-role fighters that the SA government has ordered from Saab, the Swedish arms manufacturer.

According to Armed Forces Journal International, published in Virginia, US, Dlamini-Zuma’s request was at least partly aimed at protecting the interests of SA’s state-owned arms industries. But her request also “reveals that South Africa has observed a growing pattern of Chinese arms sales” in its own backyard, and provided “evidence of its serious concern about the matter”.

Yesterday Foreign Affairs spokes man Ronnie Mamoepa said he could not recall Dlamini-Zuma making such a request. He referred further queries to his department’s Asian Affairs desk, which did not answer calls.

The Zimbabwean fighter jet order also defies a 1998 appeal by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan that defence expenditure in Southern Africa be frozen for 10 years at 1.5% of countries’ GDP.

Figures compiled for the SA Institute of International Affairs show that, if anything, Annan’s plea has been answered with a full-scale arms race between Zimbabwe, Namibia, South Africa and other countries in the region.

The South African government says it spends only 1.5% of GDP on arms. According to the institute’s figures, however, only Zambia and Swaziland have adhered to the 1.5% limit. Zimbabwe (3.4% ), Namibia (3.6% ) and South Africa (1.7% ), it says, have committed themselves to expensive military upgrades.

If the current Pakistani interest in the J-10 continues, it will probably appear at Zhuhai 2006. Once it is cleared for export, the marketing engine will kick up.