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SpudmanWP

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  • in reply to: test pilot: "F-35 can't dogfight" #2157777
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    What’s so special about it? All you need is integrated avionics. All 4+ have it..

    No they do not, that’s the point.

    The best that 4th gen avionics currently do is to combine tracks, not develop tracks based on the partial info from the different sensors.

    As an example, the APG-81 is directly connected to the ESM so that the ESM can analyze info that is gathered by the radar’s AESA array.

    btw, Still waiting for you to show your numbers behind your claim of the F-35 “costs 10% more than a Raptor”.

    in reply to: test pilot: "F-35 can't dogfight" #2157842
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    In fact, there is not much more than that. Sure, the systems (APG, EOTS, ASQ) are coupled/slaved to each other so they can all look to the same direction but what exactly is new here?

    The difference is that the systems in the F-35 do not simply look in the same direction but instead use the info from each sensor to determine what the contact is, even if individual sensors cannot make an ID or track on their own.

    If we call the F-35 cheaper only because they are able to contract 150 pcs in a year instead of 30, then we have to ask ourselves why didn’t they simply increase the numbers of F-22s, instead..

    How quickly they forget… The F-35A has ALWAYS been much cheaper (in inflation adjusted dollars) than the F-22, even when the F-22 had virtually double the production of the F-35A (F-22 FY2001-2003 vs F-35A FY2008-2010). I know that there are also F-35B in there, but the F-35 was always cheaper, long before it hits the 150pcs a year mark.

    in reply to: test pilot: "F-35 can't dogfight" #2157962
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    Wow.. that story was so full of BS that I could smell it coming through the screen :stupid:

    In all seriousness, the F-22 would need a serious avionics upgrade if it were to be restarted that it may just be worth it to instead use the money for risk reduction dev on F/A-XX, FA-XX, or whatever the USAF is calling it nowadays.

    I think the $384 per cost (in the story) is supposed to be the average Weapon System cost over it’s lifetime. Keep in mind that “Average” is far from what it would have cost to build an 11th, 12th, etc run. The 10th production run was $158.. a FAR CRY from the actual $340 Weapon System Average.

    in reply to: test pilot: "F-35 can't dogfight" #2157971
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    I hate knowing something but not KNOWING something, so I opened up the last 15 years of budgets and crunched the numbers.

    1. The USAF budget site (for you masochists out there who feel like repeating my calculations) is http://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/budget/
    2. I used the complete Rec Flyaway costs, including ECO for the F-35 even though it was not an F-22 line item.
    3. I used Tom’s Inflation calculator http://www.halfhill.com/inflation_js.html
    4. I included both then-year (Green Row) and inflation-adjusted to 2016 numbers (Red Row)
    5. I use Rec Flyaway numbers for comparison because they are the only numbers that can be used to judge manufacturing efficiency over a long period of time and across platforms.

    Conclusions:
    1. The entire F-22 production run was in 10 batches of 179 planes.
    2. The first 10 years of F-35 production will end with FY2016 and 178 planes, yes, that is only a 1 plane difference in the F-22’s favor.
    3. The F-22 benefited from a faster ramp=up (2/10/13/21/22 = 68) for the 1st 5 years vs (2/6/7/10/25 = 58) for the F-35.
    4. The F-35 did not overtake the F-22’s annual build rate until it’s 9th LRIP.
    5. Even when looking at Then-Year dollars, the F-22 was ALWAYS more expensive than the F-35 in all but one year (in LRIP6 the F-22 was $1.29mil less)
    6. The average Then-Year cost of an F-22 was $161.53mil and while the F-35 is $143mil
    7. In Then-Year dollars the F-35 was on average $18.22 mil cheaper and in FY16 dollars, $53.72 mil cheaper.

    Without further ado, the numbers.

    [ATTACH=CONFIG]241767[/ATTACH]

    in reply to: test pilot: "F-35 can't dogfight" #2158051
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    +1

    in reply to: Impressive Weapons Load 2 (again) #2158154
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    That’s what I call “Rolling out the Red carpet” :very_drunk:

    in reply to: test pilot: "F-35 can't dogfight" #2158157
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    A source for the F35 price you use for your calculation ?

    FY16 USAF Budget Doc, Pages 51 (for FY2016 numbers) and 52 (for FY2020 numbers).
    http://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-150309-005.pdf

    The F-22 info is from page 63 of the FY2011 USAF Budget.
    http://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-100128-072.pdf

    in reply to: test pilot: "F-35 can't dogfight" #2158168
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    By the same people who now say – hey it’s as good as F-18 and only costs 10% more than a Raptor, we knew that from day one!! 🙂

    Not sure what you’ve been smoking, but the only thing the F-18 can do near as good as the F-35 is maneuverability. In all other aspects (RCS, data fusion, sensor suite, etc) the F-18 is clearly outclassed.

    As far as the cost of the F-22 vs F-35 goes, try an apples to apples comparison.

    The last year that the F-22 was bought was in the FY2009 budget. They bought 24 of them for a Rec Flyaway cost of $147 mil each (per FY2011 budget).

    Compare (and inflation adjust) that to a FY16 F-35A and it’s $169 (F-22) to $103 (F-35)
    Compare (and inflation adjust) that to a FY20 F-35A and it’s $185 (F-22) to $87 (F-35)

    So tell me again how the F-35 is more expensive than the Raptor again?

    Using this inflation calculator: http://www.halfhill.com/inflation_js.html

    in reply to: test pilot: "F-35 can't dogfight" #2158473
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    When was the F-35 due to reach IOC?

    For F-35A/B/C = 2011/2010/2012

    http://i.imgur.com/SRMcM1T.jpg

    What were the original KPP? What are the KPP now?

    http://i.imgur.com/amZafZw.jpg

    An evaluation by DOD’s Systems Engineering office found that the F-35 “is on track to meet
    seven of the eight” key performance parameters (KPPs), with the exception being sortie
    generation rate. It cautioned that “(a)lthough on track, the combat radius, STOVL performance,
    and CV recovery KPPs have limited margins.” 38

    38 Stephen P. Welby, FY2013 Annual Report, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Systems Engineering, March
    2014, p. 132.

    in reply to: test pilot: "F-35 can't dogfight" #2158687
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    The X-35 has next to nothing in common with the final F-35.

    I was talking about the final bids from both parties to win the JSF competition.

    It was a much lighter bird and would have cost significantly less..

    Don’t forget that the wing & tail needed to be redesigned and would have been heavier.

    Keep in mind that the avionics & engine are the most expensive components of an aircraft, for Dev, procurement, and O&M and they would have been relatively the same for the F-32 as they are for the F-35. They only thing that is truly unique in the F-35 is the liftfan.

    in reply to: test pilot: "F-35 can't dogfight" #2158712
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    And spend another 15 years developing a new aircraft? You crazy?

    If you are going to pick another plane, then you need another contest.

    Which means that the companies will have to come up with paper-plans, go through a down select to 2 or 3, build the prototypes, compete in a flyoff, pick a winner, and negotiate a contract all before the development seriously begins (think 1995 – 2001 for the JSF).

    I think the navy and Air Force versions should have been a different plane.

    That would drive up development, procurement, and O&M costs.

    in reply to: test pilot: "F-35 can't dogfight" #2158728
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    My personal opinion is that the JSF experiment should have been declared a failure several cost revisions ago and another design should have been put forward.

    The problem with that is the same that the JPO faced, what does the Cost/Benefit analysis say. The JSF did not have it’s “Come to Jesus” moment till ~2010 which was 10 years after the contract was signed.

    To start over would have meant that it would have taken anyone else 13-15 years to get to the same point in the development cycle. That means having to pay for another round of RFIs, competitions, contracts,, and development. You would also have to pay for 10-15 more years of lifetime for existing fighters.

    All that without any real guarantee that the next guy won’t have the same problems.

    in reply to: test pilot: "F-35 can't dogfight" #2158734
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    Who’s to say that Boeing would have not run into similar problems? How’s that 787, KC-46, etc coming along?

    Remember too that the government has even said that about 40% of the overruns were their fault.

    IMHO the economic downturn played a huge part in the delays too.

    in reply to: test pilot: "F-35 can't dogfight" #2158741
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    It’s LockMart who sets the requirements. That makes them directly responsible even for the cost of their subcontractors.

    No, it was the USG that set the requirements and LM offered up a proposal to meet those requirements.

    Note that the X-32 costs were similar to the X-35 bid.

    in reply to: test pilot: "F-35 can't dogfight" #2158745
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    No of course not, but they are made FOR the F-35 a design that inherently pushed costs up. I believe you can admit that a different design could have been cheaper.

    What you cannot say for sure is that a different design, with the same capabilities, would have been cheaper.

Viewing 15 posts - 1,621 through 1,635 (of 4,849 total)