OK, I will make it simple… say Norway ordered 52 F-35s in 2018 with deliveries commencing 2021 with first two aircraft and then continuing at a yearly rate of 10 airframes between 2022 and 2026. I think that is precise enough for the calculation.

Detailed cost estimations are not available post-2017. However, we can look at the SAR for a more generalized cost.

Per the December 2012 SAR in “Then Year” REC Flyaway dollars:

FY QTY Total % Diff<br />
2012 18 129<br />
2013 19 123 -4.5<br />
2014 19 124 1.0<br />
2015 30 114 -9.6<br />
2016 44 100 -13.1<br />
2017 48 96 -4.6<br />
2018 60 87 -10.2<br />
2019 60 84 -3.2<br />
2020 60 87 2.9<br />
2021 80 84 -3.2<br />
2022 80 85 1.1<br />
2023 80 87 2.4<br />
2024 80 89 1.9<br />
2025 80 91 2.7<br />
2026 80 94 2.5<br />
2027 80 95 1.7<br />
2028 80 97 1.8<br />
2029 80 99 1.8<br />
2030 80 101 2.0<br />
2031 80 104 2.8<br />
2032 80 106 2.4<br />
2033 80 110 3.6<br />
2034 80 113 2.1<br />
2035 80 115 2.1<br />


We can see that prices for the plane continue to drop till 2022 where inflation overcomes previous Economy of Scale savings.

OK, so what would be the price for the same package in 2017-18? A rough estimate will suffice.

You would have to know the purchase & delivery years involved in the various proposals in order to give you an accurate number.

In my cost reporting, I stayed away from Recurring Flyways costs (per your request) but they truly are the only way to gauge year-to-year changes in the cost of the F-35 alone. Take the example of the LRIP7/8 costs in my post above. They look identical but that is due to the USAF spending more money non-plane costs in LRIP8 than they did in LRIP7. The REC Flyaway cost of a LRIP7 F-35A was $124.8 mil and the LRIP8 F-35 was $120.7 mil so the price of the jet dropped 3.5% without a rise in build rate.

Per page 5 of this USAF FY2014 budget doc (F-35A only):

http://www.dtic.mil/procurement/Y2014/AirForce/P40_F03500_BSA-2_BA-5_APP-3010F_PB_2014.pdf

The USAF is buying 11 upgrade kits (upgrade to Block 3i) at a total cost of $65 million ($63 mil includes the kit, support, and spares then another $2 mil for install labor in FY2016). From FY2014 thru FY2017 they are planning to buy 45 upgrade kits covering LRIPs 2-5 (USAF only as USN has their own docs & line items for the F-35B&C). There is a two year lead on these kits. In other words, FY2014 kits will be installed in FY2016.

Page 7 of the same PDF covers the USAF portion of the Concurrency costs. Notice that it is paid for on an annual bases, fluctuates a lot, and does not mention any kit numbers (number of planes upgraded per year).

We will be getting updated numbers within the month when the new FY2015 budget is released.

I have yet to see a report that compares the two options. You would think that BS would have come up with one if Concurrency were more expensive.

Keep in mind that the South Korean prices reflect F-35 LRIP pricing to a large degree.

Wait a few years and the price drops considerably while the F-15SE price remains the same or higher (inflation is a bitch).

Isn’t the museum at March beautiful?

I think it has the only A-9 (lost to the A-10) also.

It might be wise to warn the chaps who dont usually follow the Budget documents that the numbers present there are correct for the year in question and the for past, they have been (very) inacurate for future predictions, and year, after year, after year the aircrafts ended up being more expensive than what was written in the previous years budget.

They would be more accurate if they would stop backing away from Concurrency commitments and blowing the build rate increases.