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SpudmanWP

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  • in reply to: F-35 News and discussion (2016) take III #2152088
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    The LRIP9 contract is for FY2015 but the $99 mil comes from the FY2017 USAF budget doc.

    in reply to: F-35 News and discussion (2016) take III #2152126
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    Its not just the contracts. They are InFact trying to compare cost of Rafale and F-35. Unless all those Rafale cost are also without engines..

    If you are talking about the FY2017 F-35A Flyaway price of $99mil, that’s with an engine.

    in reply to: F-35 News and discussion (2016) take III #2152218
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    I have zero problem including engines but the announced $6.1 billion price excluded them.

    Final Lot9 negotaited fixed price contracts
    F-35 – $6.1 billion
    F135 – $1.4 billion

    Lot 9 total = $7.5 Billion

    in reply to: USAF not F-35 thread #2152256
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    Using the announced contract prices of the F-35 and Rafale, the F-35 is cheaper.

    [ATTACH=CONFIG]249636[/ATTACH]

    If South Korea had gone with the original 60 for $10 billion then the price per would drop to $180 mil (weapons included).

    The Japanese contract has a higher than normal price (just as the F-2 was) because they wanted to build them locally thereby losing the economy of scale pricing the rest of the buyers enjoyed. The original Indian “build at home” contract negotiations failed for the same reason.

    in reply to: F-35 News and discussion (2016) take III #2152278
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    I just read this, corrections welcome

    LRIP-9 CONTRACTS : $11,271,778,966

    undefinitized: $6,370,955,495
    Details
    2015 – Nov 3 , $5,370,955,495 It’s 2015, not 2016
    2016 – Aug 12, “about $1,000,000,000”

    All of these contracts can be seen by going to defense.gov/News/Contracts — in the archives by date

    So the real price of LRIP 9 F-35 is : 11,271,778,966/57= $ 197.75 Millions

    If you ever want to keep the credibility you have.. never quote Don Bacon… ever.

    While all of those contracts exist, they are not “additive”. In other words, all the contracts prior to the 03Nov2015 contract were a “modification of” the original long-lead contract. However, the 03Nov2015 contract was the fixed price (ie “not to exceed”) contract that kicked the production off. Also, the “about a billion” from Aug2016 was never a contract and does not appear on the .gov site. It was simply a payment for the 03Nov2015 contract so that production could go on unimpeded since the DoD was taking so long trying to negotiate LRIP9 and LRIP10 together.

    The same type of long-lead with a followup fixed-price contract model was used for the engines (the DoD negotiates with P&W for the engines, not LM).

    The recently announced $6.1 billion is the final negotiated price for that 03Nov2015 contract & any additioanal items since 03Nove2015.

    in reply to: USAF not F-35 thread #2152443
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    Even so… 103 mil per plane is just journalist guesswork.

    No guess, that is what several sources said.

    in reply to: USAF not F-35 thread #2152481
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    Dassault has been quoted publicly saying that they are going to churn out 3 per months soon. It’s not just 24 but 24 + 24 + 36.

    Nic

    Too bad that’s not reflected in the contract prices 🙁

    in reply to: USAF not F-35 thread #2152519
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    BS. Going from barely 1 Rafale per month to 3 per month and you think it doesn’t get cheaper? What are you on, seriously?

    Nic

    I did not say that… or anything like it.

    Economy of scale is what makes the F-35 economically feasible. btw, Rafale deals for 24 is not over the course of one year, but several, so no 1 per month becoming 3. Dassault will stretch them out to keep teh line open as long as possible.

    in reply to: USAF not F-35 thread #2152555
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    nm

    in reply to: USAF not F-35 thread #2152556
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    “Subsidized ” was the wrong word, sorry.

    If the “bare fighter” cost to India is $103 million but the French government pays a lot less, that means that as a customer I don’t care what France pays for theirs, I care about what I am getting charged. Yes, the F-35 has had more than it’s fair share of cost overruns, but as an FMS customer, I can still buy an F-35 today for less than France will sell me a Rafale. I don’t have to pay for any Dev fixes (thank you USG) and certainly don’t have to pay an additional $50 mil per plane for “customization”.

    I can’t read French, but the Rafale wiki says that the “Flyaway” cost of a F3+ Rafale as of 2010 is $110 million per this PDF:
    https://web.archive.org/web/20120130003146/http://www.ccomptes.fr/fr/CC/documents/RPA/1_conduite-des-programmes-armement.pdf

    But another doc from 2013 says $80 mil.

    Now, take a look at the deal as a whole.

    Let’s look at FMS F-35 sales and Rafale exports.

    India: $8.8 billion for 36
    Egypt: $5 billion for 24
    Qartar: $7 billion for 24
    South Korea: $7.8 billion (with weapons) for 40 F-35s
    Japan: $10 billion for 42 F-35s (most locally built)

    Do the math, the F-35 is cheaper.

    in reply to: USAF not F-35 thread #2152573
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    You cannot compare French domestic cost if it’s subsidized.

    By law, FMS cost is the same as domestic. Somethings there is an overall fee, but that is often waived.

    Korean numbers were from over 2 years ago and did not have a Rafale to compare to. 2 years ago the F-35 was more expensive than it is today and is getting cheaper by the year. The Rafale/Eurofighter/F-15E are not getting any cheaper.

    Not sure what you think needs fixing for any FY2017 F-35, but any post FY2016 F-35 is delivered in Block 3F format. Engine fire issue from 2014 is done, lightning protection is in Block 3i, software is done in 3F, “isolant”???? (I am assuming PAO insulation) is not a problem (it was a non-conforming part), helmet is done in Block 3i, and data fusion will be done by 3F.

    Yes, I can say that for anyone but the French, an F-35 is cheaper to by than a Rafale from FY2017 forward.

    in reply to: F-35 News and discussion (2016) take III #2152576
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    That was reported earlier in the week.

    in reply to: USAF not F-35 thread #2152607
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    News Flash… the Rafale cost more for non-French sales but the F-35 costs the same as US sales…..

    If Canada compared what it would cost for them to buy the F-35 or the Rafale… the F-35 is cheaper.

    in reply to: USAF not F-35 thread #2152678
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    CPFH cost estimations for the F-35 have actually gone down in recent years as experience is gained and real world costs can be calculated. btw, the JSF SAR is looking at real world (2008-2010) F-16 costs. The data that you pointed to was from 2 years ago and only covered just that one year. The SAR report covers the entire program.

    The F-16C/D CPFH figures were developed in a joint effort between CAPE and the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency. The figures have been normalized for comparison to the F-35A CPFH forecast. The starting point for the F-16C/D CPFH is an average of actual cost incurred for this fleet during FY 2008 through FY 2010. In order to enable the direct comparison of the CPFH figures, the actual F-16C/D CPFH is adjusted to reflect the cost of fuel, the number of flight hours forecast for the F-35A, and FY 2013 inflation indices. The F-16C/D figures include costs that F-16 shares with other Air Force platforms: Systems Engineering/Program Management (SEPM), maintenance training costs, certain software development efforts, and information systems. Costs for mission planning are included in the F-35A CPFH figure, but equivalent costs for the F-16C/D are not available, and no adjustment was made for this element of cost. Finally, the F-16C/D figures assume full funding of requirements consistent with the F-35A CPFH figures.

    While you are entitled to your own opinion, the FACT is that a “bare fighter” cost of a Rafale (as offered to India) is more than a “Flyaway” FY2017 F-35, by $4 mil per airframe.

    in reply to: USAF not F-35 thread #2152726
    SpudmanWP
    Participant

    The cost I am referring until this point is in the making of F-35 from research to final assembly and all the complex management office to deal with so many suppliers.

    If I am a customer buying an F-35 today, I do not have to pay for the development again. As far as the rest of your argument, it’s already calculated into the Flyaway cost.

Viewing 15 posts - 1,276 through 1,290 (of 4,849 total)