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lukos

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Viewing 15 posts - 1,186 through 1,200 (of 1,752 total)
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  • in reply to: Malaysian Airlineus 777 shot down over Ukraine #2240131
    lukos
    Participant

    You’ll never see the SBIRS-High data for the BUK missile track which destroyed Maylasian Airlines flight 17.

    You’ll never see the JORN data for the flight path and crash location of Maylasian Airlines flight 370.

    You’ll never see the DSP data for the S-200 missile track which destroyed Siberian Airlines flight 1812.

    It makes no sense for an Intelligence Service to disclose their capabilities, because doing so gives an adversary clues about techniques to avoid discovery by those capabilities. Non-release of intel data does not mean such data does not exist.

    Well your post just gave them clues, but hell, I’m sure they already knew anyway, because you did, and I did.

    in reply to: Malaysian Airlineus 777 shot down over Ukraine #2240184
    lukos
    Participant

    I have already wasted too much time trying to hold a discussion with you. So I will keep this brief.

    Dying man’s statement.

    You can state this as often as you like, but that will not make it true. It is your personal belief (supported by no evidence), and nothing more.

    They had a satellite in the vicinity at the time. If they could implicate the rebels with what it picked up they would. Instead, this POS is all they’ve come up with:

    http://forum.keypublishing.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=230492&d=1406083115

    I started learning about weather satellites in the late 1960s, acquiring practical experience in the field when I was briefly involved in a project to field a low-cost ground station. I fear it your good self who needs educating in this subject area.

    For example, the standard data format used by US NOAA satellites transmits at 2 lines/sec, the equivalent of a data rate of only 4,160 baud. So it takes a significant time for a complete image to be transmitted. Some earth-observation satellites (rather than weather satellites) such as the Russian Resurs series provide imagery in near real-time of small areas, but the output takes the form of a series of images, not video. So while some weather satellites do operate in a lower orbit that their geostationary cousins, they carry sensors intended to provide wide-area coverage photographs, rather then detailed imagery or even video imagery.

    Another statement without substantiation. A series of high resolution images in real time does the same job as a video. You should also know that Resur-P has an image storing and conversion unit, so the images can be processed into a moving picture off-line. The accuracy is down to 0.7m, so the video shown is perfectly possible even with a weather satellite.

    http://www.russianspaceweb.com/resurs_p.html
    http://en.ria.ru/science/20110922/167049123.html

    lukos
    Participant

    The main advantage is altitude. You come in directly from above not on the level with them. That’s my experience against Ka-50s in an A-10C on DCS anyway. If you’re in an attack aircraft with no radar then the only real problem is knowing they’re there when you come into to strafe ground targets, otherwise piece of cake.

    In the ’70s you can understand the problem. Poor radar detection of targets near ground level, no IRST, missiles only effective at short ranges etc. These days I don’t even think you’d bother wasting an AAM. A Brimstone should do the job.

    lukos
    Participant

    ….so UK built and configured two carriers for the specific purpose of defending falklands ?
    the logic is weak, its cheaper to base a couple of EF there

    There are many Typhoons based there but what happens if the Argentinians manage to invade and capture the Island again. Unlikely, but as a strategist you have to consider it. Could we rely on NATO help? Perhaps, perhaps not. We had to go it alone last time. So yes the F-35B is needed.

    In most other perceivable scenarios we either won’t be defending sovereign soil, or we’ll have land bases available, and/or we’ll be operating as part of NATO. So the logic isn’t weak at all. We don’t need the extra range but we do need the sortie rate and rough seas capability. The F-35B also offers a short range VTOL hop capability with 50% fuel and a light weapons load. The F-35C is also physically larger, hence larger RCS assuming equal stealth capability. And of course the usual adage of ‘drop tanks can be dropped’. All we’re really missing is internal carriage for 2,000lbers, JSOWs and JSM.

    2,000lber – Use twice as many 1,000lbers or Storm Shadow instead.
    JSOW – Use Storm Shadow instead.
    JSM – Use Storm Shadow (after MLU) instead.

    Not really much to be missed apart from shed loads of hassle with training, cats, arresters, fuselage fatigue, landing gear fatigue, folding wings, taxiing etc.

    https://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/25jermy.pdf

    http://www.thinkdefence.co.uk/2012/09/falkland-islands-lesson-learned-through-us-navy-eyes/

    in reply to: Malaysian Airlineus 777 shot down over Ukraine #2240284
    lukos
    Participant

    Picture

    What are we looking at there Paralay?

    in reply to: Malaysian Airlineus 777 shot down over Ukraine #2240287
    lukos
    Participant

    Interpreted by your neighbour with physics O-level from which observations, exactly?

    The information is publically available if you look hard enough. Right now such evidence doesn’t exist for MH17.

    All we get is stories about Russians firing across the border and no acknowledgement of fire the other way, as per the 13th July incident where a Russian citizen was killed and 2 injured by shell fire from Ukraine. For an organisation like the IDF that would be justification enough to kill over a thousand people right there.

    I
    Do you even read the stuff you’re linking to?

    You don’t think someone might have edited that bit per chance. “As small as a huge oil tanker.” Hardly reads right does it? Notice that you skipped straight to the bit that reads incorrectly and ignored the bit on resolution and condensation (vapour) trails.

    lukos
    Participant

    http://www.rafmuseum.org.uk.nyud.net/documents/Research/RAF-Historical-Society-Journals/Journal-35A-Seminar-the-RAF-Harrier-Story.pdf

    Basically the Falklands is the only envisaged scenario where we could be operating alone without land-based fighters because there’s a precedent for that. The extra range of the F-35C wouldn’t be required but higher sortie rate and ability to operate in unfavourable sea conditions would.

    It’s basically a case of there being no point in having 2 carriers full of F-35Cs that you can’t use because the sea conditions are too bad. Then you also have the training issue, the fannying about with catapults and arrester gear, the larger aircraft on a finite deck space etc.

    in reply to: Malaysian Airlineus 777 shot down over Ukraine #2240372
    lukos
    Participant

    It may not always to possible to offer the sort of evidence that the layman will understand. Unless an imaging spacecraft was in range of the launch area at the time of the firing, and had been tasked with capturing an image of the launcher, there is unlikely to be photographic evidence of the launch. What we are probably dealing with is data from other airborne, spaceborne or ground-based sensors, which could in some cases exist primarily in the form of numerical data. Then there are potential sigint and elint data, plus anything available from assets on the ground.

    Oh so this is the new excuse. “You’re not clever enough to understand how our lack of evidence makes a case.” So what about the Ukrainian Buk in the area that moved position.

    While you postulate an ‘either/or’ scenario, with both options showing the US in a bad light, I would favour a more graduated range of possibilities involving different levels of available data. Expecting this to be summarisable in terms that a layman will understand is a bit like asking my nearest friendly astronomer to prove to a layman that black holes exist.

    Bull****, it’s easily provable that Black Holes exist because we can observe stars moving at millions of mph in the centre of the galaxy. What you’re trying to provide as proof so far is that a Buk driving round rebel territory a long way from Torez means they shot down the jet. Both sides can provide that kind of evidence.

    The truth is the US doesn’t have conclusive evidence or that it shows the wrong thing.

    It is known to be data from a weather satellite? Do you have any evidence that weather satellites operate in low orbit, and gather high-resolution real-time video of small patches of terrain?

    That’s what the video information said originally, and yes they do. Here, educate yourself:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_satellite#Polar_orbiting

    Polar orbiting
    Polar orbiting weather satellites circle the Earth at a typical altitude of 850 km (530 miles) in a north to south (or vice versa) path, passing over the poles in their continuous flight. Polar satellites are in sun-synchronous orbits, which means they are able to observe any place on Earth and will view every location twice each day with the same general lighting conditions due to the near-constant local solar time. Polar orbiting weather satellites offer a much better resolution than their geostationary counterparts due their closeness to the Earth.

    The United States has the NOAA series of polar orbiting meteorological satellites, presently NOAA 17 and NOAA 18 as primary spacecraft, NOAA 15 and NOAA 16 as secondary spacecraft, NOAA 14 in standby, and NOAA 12. Europe has the Metop-A satellite. Russia has the Meteor and RESURS series of satellites. China has FY-1D and FY-3A. India has polar orbiting satellites as well.

    DMSP
    The United States Department of Defense’s Meteorological Satellite (DMSP) can “see” the best of all weather vehicles with its ability to detect objects almost as ‘small’ as a huge oil tanker. In addition, of all the weather satellites in orbit, only DMSP can “see” at night in the visual. Some of the most spectacular photos have been recorded by the night visual sensor; city lights, volcanoes, fires, lightning, meteors, oil field burn-offs, as well as the Aurora Borealis and Aurora Australis have been captured by this 450-mile-high space vehicle’s low moonlight sensor.

    At the same time, energy use and city growth can be monitored since both major and even minor cities, as well as highway lights, are conspicuous. This informs astronomers of light pollution. The New York City Blackout of 1977 was captured by one of the night orbiter DMSP space vehicles.

    In addition to monitoring city lights, these photos are a life saving asset in the detection and monitoring of fires. Not only do the satellites see the fires visually day and night, but the thermal and infrared scanners on board these weather satellites detect potential fire sources below the surface of the Earth where smoldering occurs. Once the fire is detected, the same weather satellites provide vital information about wind that could fan or spread the fires. These same cloud photos from space tell the firefighter when it will rain.

    Some of the most dramatic photos showed the 600 Kuwaiti oil fires that the fleeing Army of Iraq started on February 23, 1991. The night photos showed huge flashes, far outstripping the glow of large populated areas. The fires consumed millions of gallons of oil; the last was doused on November 6, 1991.

    Uses
    Snowfield monitoring, especially in the Sierra Nevada, can be helpful to the hydrologist keeping track of available snowpack for runoff vital to the watersheds of the western United States. This information is gleaned from existing satellites of all agencies of the U.S. government (in addition to local, on-the-ground measurements). Ice floes, packs and bergs can also be located and tracked from weather space craft.

    Even pollution whether it is nature-made or man-made can be pinpointed. The visual and infrared photos show effects of pollution from their respective areas over the entire earth. Aircraft and rocket pollution, as well as condensation trails, can also be spotted. The ocean current and low level wind information gleaned from the space photos can help predict oceanic oil spill coverage and movement. Almost every summer, sand and dust from the Sahara Desert in Africa drifts across the equatorial regions of the Atlantic Ocean. GOES-EAST photos enable meteorologists to observe, track and forecast this sand cloud. In addition to reducing visibilities and causing respiratory problems, sand clouds suppress hurricane formation by modifying the solar radiation balance of the tropics. Other dust storms in Asia and mainland China are common and easy to spot and monitor, with recent examples of dust moving across the Pacific ocean and reaching North America.

    In remote areas of the world with few local observers, fires could rage out of control for days or even weeks and consume millions of acres before authorities are alerted. Weather satellites can be a tremendous asset in such situations. Nighttime photos also show the burn-off in gas and oil fields. Atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles have been taken by weather satellites since 1969.[15]

    Most of my postings are attempts to introduce engineering reality into threads containing speculation often based on limited or no technical understanding. Not much chance to introduce bias, methinks.

    And yet you seem to strongly support a very flimsy case being pedalled by the media.

    lukos
    Participant

    Turn around times are quicker and sortie rate is higher with STOVL and they can operate in rough seas (e.g. South Atlantic) when CATOBAR aircraft are grounded. That, in a nutshell is the reason. There’s a very very long report somewhere saying the same thing.

    in reply to: MH17 Versus Iran Air 655 #2240458
    lukos
    Participant

    As an experiment I’ve just watched a 777 go overhead at 33,000 ft and could distinguish the livery and read the underwing registration ( A6-ETG ) using only basic optical assistance ( a pair of stabilized bionoculars ).

    It was recognizable as a commercial twinjet at about 20 miles distant and a 777 at about 10 miles.

    An MD-11 just went over at 37,000 and was even more distinctive. Reg was PH-MCS.

    So the firing parties have no excuse as to mis-recognition, given that Buk is fitted with a powerful EO system.

    Maybe it just looks a lot like the Russian President’s IL-96.

    in reply to: Malaysian Airlineus 777 shot down over Ukraine #2240892
    lukos
    Participant

    “they either don’t have evidence at all, or the evidence shows something inconvenient”. This is beginning to smell of conspiracy theory. One of our forum members has a sig line that says something like whenever there are two opposing theories, the truth is somewhere between the two.

    Not really. It’s more a case that anyone can say anything they like if they’re not required to present evidence to back it up.

    Although I attended a multi-day closed briefing on satellite recce some years ago, I cannot claim to be au fait with the current state of the art. But what you want to conceal from the other side is not just a matter of photo resolution, but the practical results available from multi-spectral sensors and techniques such as data fusion.

    Well what that video on YouTube does show is that it’s possible for a weather satellite to detect a missile launch. So whoopdeedoo, it’s not a classified, unheard of technology that anyone needs to keep secret.

    Is there any reason I should have?

    To show you’re not biased perhaps.

    in reply to: Malaysian Airlineus 777 shot down over Ukraine #2240999
    lukos
    Participant

    To take these points in turn:

    Where in my posting did I mention ‘national security’ or in any way allude to it?

    The US DoD is under no obligation to share the capability of its reconnaissance systems with you, this forum, or anyone else outside the intel community. But refusal to release overhead, elint, or sigint information in no way disqualifies the US DoD or Government from commenting on the MH17 incident, any more than a lack of evidence has disqualified those who posted some of the crazier ideas seen in this thread and elswhere.

    The film clip that you posted shows the launch of an unidentified rocket from an unidentified location on an unknown date. To the best of my knowledge, any relevance it may have to the MH17 incident remains unestablished.

    The white smoke trail visible in this video and that in posting 507 is a characteristic of a common type of rocket propellant, and not of any particular missile system. Any SAM that used this type of propellant would produce a similar white trail. I would hate to see ‘white smoke’ joining ‘descending chaff’ in the pseudo-evidence being offered concerning the MH17 incident.

    The US DoD keeps saying they have evidence but the truth is one of two things, they either don’t have evidence at all, or the evidence shows something inconvenient. You can’t say, we have evidence of this and then not show it. That’s insane. No one will believe that crap. People have a rough idea of their reconnaissance capabilities, enough to know that they could provide surveillance footage. That’s no secret. There is no legitimate military secrecy issue here, it’s just a truth perversion tool/tactic.

    I note you never queried the Buk seen passing through Lugansk on an equally, ‘unconfirmed date’.

    in reply to: Malaysian Airlineus 777 shot down over Ukraine #2241068
    lukos
    Participant

    By such a nonsense claim you lost your credibility.

    So what did MITT and MIPT do then? Most of the manufacturing plants are in the East as well, e.g. Dnipropetrovsk.

    I suppose Nissan belongs to Sunderland because they build them there.

    in reply to: Malaysian Airlineus 777 shot down over Ukraine #2241188
    lukos
    Participant

    It is easy to sneer, but more worthwhile to try to understand the underlying facts. The US briefing in question was apparently given only to the major media outlets. The defence press such as Aviation Week, Defence News, and Jane’s were not present, I am told, so the reports we are seeing are not by defence specialists. That makes it harder to assess the quality of the information that was released. But the published accounts of the briefing are more relevant that the children’s scribbles and rather sickening humour that Paralay is trying to justify having posted.

    I’m tired of this national security BS. All I have to say to the US DoD is, “an airliner has gone down with 298 people on it. Show your evidence or STFU”.

    We seem to actually have the launch here, now all we need to do is find out where it was:

    in reply to: Malaysian Airlineus 777 shot down over Ukraine #2241286
    lukos
    Participant

    Ministry of Ukraine submitted its satellite photos showing that the fault lies on Putin personally!

    http://cs620722.vk.me/v620722319/eb2e/0J-8TODfxKQ.jpg

    ^That’s actually a significant improvement in image quality over this:

    U.S. discloses intelligence on downing of Malaysian jet
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]230492[/ATTACH]
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-discloses-intelligence-on-downing-of-malaysian-jet/2014/07/22/b178fe58-11e1-11e4-98ee-daea85133bc9_story.html?hpid=z1

Viewing 15 posts - 1,186 through 1,200 (of 1,752 total)