dark light

Nigel rises again- Is this the second coming?

Without – I hope – tempting fate, is this day, the day that Nigel and UKIP take their first confident steps on the path to Government ?

It seems likely – without making oneself a hostage to fortune – that UKIP will sweep the board at Rochester. An emphatic win might well result in a trickle of Tory defectors to the UKIP machine. That trickle could become a stream, resulting in a seismic shift in British politics.

Almost too delicious to contemplate ! Can you imagine the gnashing of left wing teeth ? The first step in releasing our country from EU serfdom.

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By: John Green - 23rd November 2014 at 17:59

You’ve got it quite wrong ! UKIP is not my salvation. UKIP at this moment offers the only realistic chance of leaving the EU. No other party that we can believe, has made this commitment.

UKIP won’t be my salvation – it will be the salvation of this once great nation. Think about that. If you have the merest sliver of patriotism and pride and concern for the future of your country then, you know to whom your allegiance and duty should be directed.

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By: charliehunt - 23rd November 2014 at 16:44

You and I can debate this until the cows come home but nothing will dislodge you from your conviction that UKIP is your salvation and that voting for it will achieve that salvation nor me from my conviction that votes for UKIP will provide nothing but five years of Labour statism and EU dependency. I.e total disaster for the nation.

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By: John Green - 23rd November 2014 at 16:35

Exactly Charlie ! There you have it. You’ve put your finger right on it. I couldn’t. It had to come from someone whose commitment to removal from the EU wasn’t wholehearted.

Removal, for me, is the central issue against which all others fade to nothing. Membership has changed my country for the worse. From metrication to climate change, to NATO, to defence, to our valued relationship with the Commonwealth, to the protection of our borders, and I’ve scarcely scratched the surface.

Have the rest of the population or, at any rate those who are either supporters or are apathetic towards the EU, become so devoid of pride as Britishers, that they can with equanimity accept the control of the destiny of this country in foreign hands ?

Your last paragraph suggests the possibility of some act of self immolation on the part of the EU. Some sacrificial spontaneous combustion. That is not going to happen. What will be required is a push and a shove. For the British, UKIP will perform that function.

Yes. Next Spring might bring interesting times. We’ll see how hated the EU has become in the minds of many.

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By: charliehunt - 23rd November 2014 at 16:02

Tony has spoken for himself and has committed himself, like John, to UKIP. And by so doing, despite all of John’s fervour and blandishments to the contrary will potentially result in precisely the opposite of what John most emphatically desires.

Exit from the EU is not for me the only thing which matters nor is it for the large majority of voters Many things matter more to the “man in the street”. As will become abundantly clear next May.

I also stongly suspect that, perhaps not those of my age, but that my son will witness the self destruction first of the Euro and subsequently of the EU as it is currently constructed.

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By: John Green - 23rd November 2014 at 15:21

Re48

How did I know that you would take that line? You and I are in opposition on practically everything, that’s how !

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By: John Green - 23rd November 2014 at 15:15

Not so, old chap. It’s the Charlie’s and Moggy’s of this world who shuffle about on the political shifting sands, trying to decide which way to jump or, indeed whether it is expedient to just sit on the fence and then say or write: ‘I told you so’ Apologies for the more than mixed metaphors)

I differ from Tony in one respect only. The Tories – failing to entirely grasp the financial nettle – are actually complicit in continuing, despite their miniscule efforts, in raising our national indebtedness, as compared with which ever yardstick you are comfortable (See Fiscal Report 2012-13, Audit Office or ONS)

The Tony’s and John’s of this political world, very plainly see the ‘wood for the trees’ and refuse to be deflected by other issues no matter how important. Nothing, nothing at all matters by comparison with removing this country from the failing, corrupt and anti democratic EU. I know that most of us agree with that statement – apart that is from Moggy, who appears to have another, slightly mysterious agenda which prevents him from nailing his colours to any one political idea.

Some of us may differ about the most likely way or removing Britain, or, at any rate the major portion from the authoritarian ‘lefties’ polishing their seats in Brussels. Apart from the most desirable – and the one that I prefer – a 40+ percent swing to UKIP in a General Election, the next most desirable and probably (acknowledgements to Charlie) the most likely, is a UKIP coalition with the Tories the price of which is a UKIP driven instant referendum asking the question: In or Out: Yes or No ?

Dave can’t be trusted on practically any Tory policies whether they be the future of grammar schools, limiting the power of the trades unions, especially in Education or unilateraly imposing limits on immigration the last of which brings us full circle.

For me personally, nothing could rival the pleasure and delight at witnessing the phenomenon of a UKIP electoral success of a 42% swing – or thereabouts, leading to a unilateral declaration of withdrawal from the EU. Oh sweet joy ! But, if UKIP have to do it by supping with the devil well, so long as they do it while remembering the caveat about ‘long spoons’………

That’ll do for me Tommy !!

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By: Moggy C - 23rd November 2014 at 15:06

I think we should permit Tony to speak for himself. John appears to have lost all grip on reality and can safely be ignored.

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By: charliehunt - 23rd November 2014 at 13:41

The Johns and Tonys of this world actually genuinely believe that UKIP will gain sufficient votes in sufficient constituencies to negate the likelihood of a Labour or Lab/Lib/Green pro EU coalition. Perhaps cloud cuckoo land will become a reality!

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By: Moggy C - 23rd November 2014 at 12:49

So you don’t trust Cameron to deliver a referendum, so you choose a course that makes it virtually certain there won’t be a referendum. How does that help?

What’s the UKIP line on devolution? I am not aware of it.

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By: TonyT - 23rd November 2014 at 12:22

Yes, because I simply do not trust the referendum vote will actually happen, or will happen in a way that the questions will be written to prevent the desired result. I also am against the way devolution powers have been panicky given to Scotland and cities throughout the UK. The “Westminster is out of touch” argument presented by the Scots is down to their local MP’s not putting over their views.

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By: Moggy C - 23rd November 2014 at 12:11

So basically you acknowledge that the Tories are doing a decent job on the economy, yet you are willing to risk letting Labour (under Milliband) getting their hands on our money again, and at the same time doing us out of the chance to vote on the EU? For what reason?

Note: Not disputing your right to do so, but am just interested in the thought process. 🙂

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By: TonyT - 23rd November 2014 at 11:52

Well as a staunch Conservative for life I will vote UKIP.
Don’t get me wrong, I firmly believe that the Conservatives have been doing a good job on the economy in attempting to sort out the mess that they inherited from the Labour Party.
I also believe that the Labour Party are now nothing to do with their grass roots , or the ideology that the party stands for, they no longer represent the people they purport too, you cannot in my eyes represent the working class needs if you are not of that class and have no inclination as to the needs of those they represent.
As for the Liberal Democrats, well, a party by default simply by a quirk of fate that put them in power with the Conservatives, one does wonder how much they have hampered the Conservatives With some of their schemes.

When you look at them now..

Conservatives doing a good job, but suffering possibly from the coalition and being seen as the bad boys over the economy, but just do not seem to listen to the population re immigration and the EU, the referendum should have been done And dusted and put behind them.

Labour, nothing to do with their core values, rich kids in disguise, and after their last Country bankrupting efforts, I wouldn’t trust them to run a child’s piggy bank, and I cannot fathom why people can not see that.

Liberal Democrats…. Considering the debate on should UKIP be invited to the televised debates, seeing the last result, one wonders if the Lib Dems should be invited. Finally got their chance after being a party of no hopers and managed to come out of it even worse. The Raving Looney Party in disguise.

UKIP, hopefully will shake up the other parties and get them to see the world as it really is, if by getting a sizeable amount of the vote it scares the other parties into changing from the trough feeding self perpetuating bunch of slime balls most of them are the better.

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By: John Green - 23rd November 2014 at 11:00

‘..irrelevant…’

Unless they are in your favour. Then they become SIGNIFICANT.

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By: charliehunt - 22nd November 2014 at 22:04

The swing of 42% is a red herring. As I pointed out in my earlier analysis a large percentage of the Reckless vote stayed with him suggesting that the vote was as much with the candidate as the party.

And as we have learned time and time again byelections are rarely helpful pointers to general election results, so extrapolating swings and majorities is irrelevant.

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By: John Green - 22nd November 2014 at 21:48

Not a good or accurate analogy. It seems to me that the ‘sulky kid’ is much in demand from many quarters, and will increasingly become so. The Rochester result showed a 42% swing. If that was repeated next May, Nigel would be home and dry with just under 600 Commons seats.

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By: silver fox - 22nd November 2014 at 20:16

I do feel that the electorate should have their say on the EU, but after proper discussion with all the pros and cons discussed, the Farage tactic of picking up the ball and walking away will produce the same effect as when sulky kids did precisely that when I was little.

All that happened then is we found another ball and the sulky kid finished up kicking his ball against a wall on his own.

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By: charliehunt - 22nd November 2014 at 19:06

A very good reason for giving BBC editorial a wide berth, which I usually do.

I am pleased that Plough has made this point “and nonsense about some renegotiation of the UK/EU treaties (not actually permitted under the rules of EU membership to start with)” – one which I have repeated ad nauseam in various EU threads. Any renegotiation can only be proposed when the member country has served notice of its intention to leave the EU, under Clause 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

UKIP arrived on a one-trick pony, that’s for sure, but is learning to ride a few more horses now but to my mind has a massive way to go to present the electorate with policies to govern come May next year. And come Election day the majority will vote, as they always do, based on how well off they feel and which party they think is likely to make them better off.

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By: AlanR - 22nd November 2014 at 17:45

Exactly the sort of comment that almost always comes from people who have completely and utterly missed the point of why UKIP came into being to start with, and why it is receiving such significant support now.

I can only agree with you. They are comments which are gaining UKIP more support.
Along with the recent “White Van Man & England Flags” incident.
Political editor for the BBC, Nick Robinson, appears to have taken on the mantle of UKIP PR chief, whilst trying to
impersonate Jeremy Paxman. Every time he opens his mouth he gains Nigel Farage more support.

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By: plough - 22nd November 2014 at 17:10

Somebody on Radio 4’s excellent news quiz said “UKIP is for people who think their lives are someone else’s fault”.

I thought that was excellent…….

Exactly the sort of comment that almost always comes from people who have completely and utterly missed the point of why UKIP came into being to start with, and why it is recieving such significant support now.

The same kind of blinkered fools who dismiss UKIP out of hand by trying to portray them and their supporters as simply racists.

If those who disagree with the idea of withdrawing from the EU don’t soon wake up and take the concerns of a huge proportion of the population seriously, instead of keep fobbing everyone off with mealy mouthed half promises of a referendum (but no mention of what the question will be), and nonsense about some renegotiation of the UK/EU treaties (not actually permitted under the rules of EU membership to start with), then UKIP will contiinue to gain strength.

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By: John Green - 22nd November 2014 at 11:32

Re 31

Only the daft one’s. So, you must now be happy.

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