The MMRCA Competition: What Next?

Source

Two days ago, I received a mysterious phone-call from a Russian journalist who claimed to have very reliable information that the Indian Air Force and the Defence Ministry had chosen the MiG-35 in the $12-billion medium multirole combat aicraft (MMRCA) competition, and had communicated as much to both MiG chief Mikhail Pogosyan as well as UAC president Alexey Fedorov. Cut. A well-known senior Indian defence analyst, who junketed off to Farnborough this month, assured me just before he left, that the Typhoon was going to sail through to the finish line — I’d stopped listening by this time, but he said something about “knowing people in the know”. Cut.

There’s a lot of stuff swimming around out there about the MMRCA, and it’s all tantalizing. Rumours of first blood.

At this point in the game, it’s common for vendors to pick journalists’ brains about what they’re hearing. Well, what they’re hearing is a lot of noise. A carefully crafted cacophony of permutation, combination and possibility — some delectably elegant, some morbidly unthinkable. The campaign chiefs from Boeing and Lockheed-Martin, for example, have frequent briefings in Delhi — thinly veiled opportunities for them to get exchange notes with reporters about where things stand on the MMRCA, what the rumours are, what they’re picking up from “people in the know”. All of the rumours are tantalizing in their potential to create massive upheaval — political, technological, doctrinal, what have you. And in the run up to what is expected to be a downselect this year — but what is also likely to not be a downselect at all — I thought I’d put down everything I’ve heard in the last six three months. The structure, I should say right away, does not indicate a descending order of probability. And yet, it might.

For the purpose of clarity, let me state that the six competitors are the RAC-MiG MiG-35, the Boeing F/A-18IN Super Hornet, the Dassault Rafale, the EADS Eurofighter Typhoon, the Saab Gripen IN and the Lockheed-Martin F-16IN Super Viper.

SCENARIO 1: NO DOWNSELECT: All six contenders make the cut. Commercial negotiations begin with all six companies, and bam, they hand it to one. Right through the field evaluation tests (FET), there have been rumours of scrubs, snags, even hearsay that four of the six failed the test leg at Leh. All six competitors independently assured the press that their horses had come through beautifully and that all rumours of climb-rate disappointments and payload inadequacies were malicious nuggets passed around by “vested interests”. Can’t think of one person who isn’t a vested interest, actually. If all six aircraft dodge the “downselect”, it’ll mean the FET gave the IAF nothing it could really work with in terms of defining what it really wants to go with. Always bear in mind the supremely incomparable airplanes the IAF is working to compare.

SCENARIO 2: NO DOWNSELECT, BUT PREFERENCE INDICATED: All six contenders make the cut, but are presented in the IAF’s report to the MoD in descending order of preference. Best of both worlds — everyone makes it past the first guillotine.

SCENARIO 3: THE NEGATIVE RECOMMENDATION: An interesting one. The IAF submits its report to the MoD along with a list solely indicating the aircraft it definitely doesn’t want. The government then takes a political decision among the ones the IAF doesn’t mind operating.

SCENARIO 4: SINGLE OUT: IAF chief PV Naik says the MMRCA field evaluation trials make for an international yardstick on how fighters should be evaluated the world over – a masterpiece of a testing templace. Most people believe him, because they’re still trying to figure how a disparate line-up of aircraft can be meaningfully compared with a result-oriented focus. Many were shocked when Boeing elbowed in the Super Hornet into the MMRCA competition way back when the Mirage-2000-V was still in contention and widely believed to be the signature platform for the MMRCA. Things have changed drastically since. This scenario suggests that the IAF has come round to wanting a twin-engine platform. So goodbye F-16IN and Gripen IN.

SCENARIO 5: KEEP IT REAL, KEEP IT MEDIUM: An old scenario that’s more wishful thinking than anything else. There’s nothing “medium” about the Typhoon, Rafale and Super Hornet. So the downselect pushes forward only the MiG-35, the F-16IN and the Gripen IN.

SCENARIO 6: GRIPEN, MIG OUT: The downselect eliminates the Gripen IN and the MiG-35. The former, because it’s Swedish (and woe betide any government that ever buys anything Swedish ever again). The rumour goes that the government has expressly instructed the IAF not to allow the Gripen past the FET phase. The latter because its Russian, and there’s a limit to the whole eggs in one basket thing.

SCENARIO 7: NO OP AESA? GOODBYE!: Only the F-16IN and the F/A-18IN make it because they’re the only two contenders with fully operational AESA radars (the NG APG-80 and the Raytheon APG-79 respectively). The others are work in progress, and the IAF doesn’t want to take a chance. That the IAF has been super-impressed by both American AESAs doesn’t hurt.

SCENARIO 8: TYPHOON OUT: A nightmare scenario for EADS, considering the weight of its pitch. This scenario suggests the Typhoon is ejected from the competition as a result of deficient air-to-ground performance, and that all promises aren’t worth the cost of the airplane.

And these are just eight possible scenarios. I haven’t mentioned the obvious permutations. It’s going to be a yahtzee. Will keep updating this post as I hear more. And, of course, feel free to comment with more scenarios if you’ve heard any.

The MAR-1 purchase by Pakistan was a major surprise when it was announced some months ago… Specially since Brazil and India were already partnering um in a considerable number of military initiatives… the IBSAMar naval exercises, the Embraer participation in the new mid-sized AWACS aircraft, some say Brazilian interest on Brahmos… The risk that the MAR-1 sale might upset relations with fellow BRIC member India apparently was not considered by our government as a very high risk option…

From what I heard. the MAR-1 sale to Pakistan was a sorely needed funding boost to Mectron in order to get this missile into serial production. FAB is very excited with this product, and naturally eager to add it to its inventory. FAB is very open with all aspects of information about its operations except for the purchase and stocks om missiles, on those there is usually no comments whatsoever…

I imagine the MAR-1 is to be fitted to the “Thunder”, because I doubt it that the US would allow the adding of a non-US weapon to the F-16s currently operated by Pakistan, how do you all see this issue?

Regards

Hammer

BRIC is at best a fancy pressure group, for one it contains China which is Pakistans main Arms supplier. In IBSA SA also supply arms to both India and Pakistan.

Arms contractors have to think about their profits first. The supposed leverage a nation gets from buying stuff is a big exaggerated. SAAB for example sold AWACS to PAF while bidding for MRCA !

It does not make much sense to buy a Boom tanker when most of your AC use the probe. The F 16 CFT option is much cheaper, I think there are also normal drop tanks equipped with refueling probes !.

How do the C-802A compare to KH 35 carried by 29K ?

MIG 29 K vs F 18 C normal Hornet 🙂

Would be a fair fight.

But what the hell.
Does money truly suck to Indians…? How they can possibly spend all this money on weapons when their population dies starving…?

Oh, yeah. UK aid…!

How is it that no one protests against the immense weapon program of India when its populations starves, and everyone is so keen to say that the UK’s already miserable defence budget is unaffordable…? Come on people, wake up! This is absurd!

I am tired of people talking about India spending British Aid money on defense. I see more and more people here are of that view.

1. India’s security challenges are 50 times as bad as that of the UK. We have two Nuclear armed neighbours one of them a mini superpower, who are allied to each other. Add to the mix a Maoist Nepal and unstable Myanmar, India is really on its own in the region except for Bhutan.

2. Colonial India funded the whole British empire for 200 years. Consider your aid as some guilt repayment or something.

3. Lot of people here protest especially the communists. The protest in defense area is usually to buy Russian or Indian instead of Western/Israeli.

4. We do not have a BIG brother across the pond to take care of the ‘junior’ partner in need.

A Simple question. Which was more fun to fly :diablo:

My be is on F-104.

Defence ministry clears Navy’s 30k cr destroyer project

NEW DELHI: Slowly but surely, India is building a powerful three-dimensional blue-water Navy to protect its geo-strategic interests stretching from Hormuz Strait to Malacca Strait.

After the recent nod to the over Rs 50,000-crore project for a second line of six submarines, the defence ministry has cleared another major programme to indigenously construct four guided-missile stealth destroyers.

MoD sources say `Project-15B’ for the four destroyers, valued around Rs 30,000 crore, has now been sent for final approval to the finance ministry before it’s taken up by the Cabinet Committee on Security.

The P-15B programme will be undertaken at Mazagon Docks (MDL) after the three Kolkata-class destroyers, already being constructed there under a long-delayed Rs 11,662-crore project, are finally delivered in 2012-2014.

“Though P-15B is basically a follow-on project of the 6,700-tonne Kolkata-class destroyers, the new destroyers will have greater stealth and advanced sensor and weapon packages,” said a source.

As first reported by TOI, the over Rs 50,000-crore project to manufacture six submarines with the help of a foreign collaborator was given the green signal last month. These vessels will add to the six French Scorpene submarines being constructed at MDL for over Rs 20,000 crore.

Even as it gears up to also get a dedicated satellite this year, Navy already has as many as 39 warships and submarines on order. With “indigenisation” being the guiding mantra, 34 of these warships are being constructed in Indian shipyards.

That’s not all. In addition to the six new submarines and four destroyers over and above the 39 warships already ordered, the government has also approved the Rs 45,000-crore construction of seven more stealth frigates at MDL in Mumbai and GRSE in Kolkata.

All this shows the government has finally realised the critical need for a strong Navy to protect the country’s huge maritime interests and project power in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and beyond, even as India jostles with an expanding Chinese footprint in IOR for strategic space.

The prima donnas of the warships on order are, of course, the 44,570-tonne Admiral Gorshkov from Russia and the 40,000-tonne indigenous aircraft carrier (IAC) being built at Cochin Shipyard. With Gorshkov to be inducted by early-2013 and IAC by 2015, India hopes to deploy two potent carrier battle-groups by the middle of this decade.

Moreover, with Navy having also ordered 45 carrier-borne MiG-29K fighters for around $2 billion from Russia, the design work on a much-bigger 65,000-tonne IAC-II is also underway.

Armed with its maritime capability perspective plan 2005-2022, Navy wants to ensure its force-levels do not dip below the existing 130 warships, 65 of which are “major combatants”, with older vessels slated for progressive retirement.

Source

ehh — what kind of claims would that be..?

extension of their continental shelf and airspace over it ?