quadbikeThe latter will be a fantasy like the Japanese f 22
quadbikeGroups on the fringe like Islamic Jihad and other dont care about PR at all. They are hard core militants which Iran can exploit. They are Sunni groups mostly, so Iranians might have to use Syria as go between.
They may not but Hamas certainly do care about it especially since they won the elections. So to increase attacks on Israel for anything other than a purely Palestine issue will have a very negative impact.
quadbikeJordan AF is no walk over, and remember, RJAF is well trained and equipped with MLU’d F-16s armed with AMRAAM.
That is no walkover, and remember, they dont have to even destroy the whole IDF package.
If the IDF strike package is disrupted, a few jets shot down and air refuellers forced to divert, this may well be enough to cancel the raid.
But will the Jordanians have the balls to shoot the Israeli planes down in the first place ? Or would they just do nothing and make a strong protest the next day.
This is the big question.
Iranians would not need to send fighter and tankers to refuel them, their strike packages are already all around Israel. All they need is Iranian nod and a ready supply of deadly weapons.
Would be very counter productive for the Palestinian cause that. Israel is in a big PR mess now and any such tactic would reverse it.
quadbikeHi quadbike, why should India want the production line of an outdated fighter, with only slight operational advantages over its counterparts in PAF, comes with limited ToT, a lot of restrictions and that can’t offer any commonality to LCA (engine doesn’t fit and it’s doubtful that the US will offer a co-development for the AESA radar).
IF the aim of MoD is to get a cost-effective fighter, Gripen NG is clearly the best choice, because it uses most of the same US weapons and could use European too. It should offer a lower RCS, SC and a better manouverability, maybe even the same GE 414 engine for LCA, so overall a much better choice than F16IN don’t you think?
If the F 16 is outdated then so is the MIG and to a certain extent the Super Hornet (yes i know its a brand new airframe but it significantly borrows from the design of the legacy Hornet). But it is still very relevant and can cut it with the best of them in its class. If you put it against the Rafale or the Eurofighter it may not come out on top, then again I doubt the Gripen will either. One has to bear in mind with the MKI and FGFA, India already have its heavy class fighters covered.
With the question of the ToT all the bidders in question will have to meet the minimum ToT and offset requirements and LM and Boeing will also comply with this. You may get a bit more with some others like the Rafale and Typhoon or the MIG. With the Gripen the swedes will give all they can but the engine will still require American sanction.
And having your own production line takes away a lot of operational restrictions, that is in theory you could support your fighters during limited U.S sanctions if necessary.
The Gripen is over all a better choice, I just fear for Sweden’s lack of political clout.
quadbikeThen I dont see how the Israelis can pull this off.
This is not 1981.
Arab air forces are actually well equipped and to a certain extent well trained.
They are fighting Persians not Arabs. And Iran don’t even like the gulf being called the Arab gulf. If Israel fly over Jordan they won’t meet with any real resistance. But i do believe without American help and without going Nuclear Israel is not capable of halting Irans Nuclear program. They should have acted much much earlier. Iranians did a good job keeping things under wraps.
quadbikeDon’t they have restrictions on taking over defense corps wrt to IP ? So if some Russian billionaire takes over LM will the parent organization get their critical ip ? I doubt that. Otherwise we could have had the very wealthy Indian private sector trying to take over at-least smaller defense firms.
quadbikeIf India do select the F 16 (Please do not believe the Leh trials fail myth – It was a minor issue that 4 out of six competitors had and was fixed there and then itself) I suspect it would order them in numbers more than 126+ and LM has already offered to move the F 16 production line in Forth Worth to Bangalore. So all things considered I expect the F 16 IN to be much cheaper than 60 million.
quadbikeBabelfish does a much better job at translating from Russian.
quadbikeCan the US invade Iran – Yes, can they replace the current Government – Yes, could they do all this without igniting a major civil war in Iran, and likely destabilising Iraq – No, could they do this without triggering a wider war in the Middle East – very unlikely. Would a US invasion of Iran gain UN backing – no, would it strain their relationships with UK – possibly, with France – Yes, with Russian -Yes, with China -Yes. Would Iran with nuclear weapons be worse than the above – I think (beyond their anti-Israel rhetoric) that the answer is no but it I think it would be close run situation.
Do I advocate an invasion, – hell no – do I think Israel should attack Iran’s nuclear facilities – no, for the reasons in my previous posts – as they cannot succeed if you define success as destroying Iran’s nuclear programme without any loss of planes, without any pilots being captured or without triggering a major military or political crisis in the Middle East. Do I think that Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear facilities – I give it 1 in 3 chance!
Can they replace current government – I doubt it without heavy causalities on the American side or the use of Nuclear weapons. Have you ever seen the size of Iran’s Army ? America can have Aerial superiority but like in Vietnam they will find it hard to win on the ground without the support of the people. Imagine the IED situation 10000 times worse than Iraq, Iranians blatantly using children and women as human shields and a PR disaster if Americans fire on them. This will eventually lead to anti-war protests back home (probably worse than the NAM era) and Americans will pack their bags and go home.
quadbikeIts clearly becoming evident that Rafale’s passive detection and targeting capabilities are helping it to come out on top against its rivals. Because of this I expect the Rafale to succeed in BVR while in WVR I suspect it would be really close with Su 30s TVC.
quadbikeThe destruction of the Syrian reactor has for the most part halted Syrian nuclear efforts – they will be hard pushed to build another experimental reactor to generate plutonium and Israel has demonstrated they can destroy any such plant with impunity – IAEA has found some irregularities with their declared nuclear activities, and it is hard to see how Syria will be able to develop nuclear weapons without US or Israel secret services finding out.
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/schulte_syria.pdf
It is hard to see how Israel can achieve the same level of success with Iran, they have large well developed programme at multiple sites. The only way to stop their nuclear programme is regime change -which means a full scale invasion – which would require the US..
Regime change ? Its one thing invading a country which is ruled with a heavy hand by a dictator who hails from a minority with in the country. The Iranian government (nvm the President the Supreme Leader and the Clergy) have huge popular support. Invading Iran will be another Vietnam. They will just give AKs to youth and even Kids and it would be impossible to occupy such a place.
quadbikeI can’t wait to see how the Rafale faired against the Su 30 MKI.
quadbikeNavy creating a new base for nuke submarines
The navy is coming up with a secret base on the east coast, under the code name Project Varsha, to berth its upcoming fleet of nuclear submarines.
India’s first indigenous nuclear-powered submarine, INS Arihant, under project Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV), was launched for trials last year at the Visakhapatnam-based ship building centre (SBC). Arihant is still undergoing its criticality certification at the SBC.
The navy has plans to build five more such nuclear-powered submarines at SBC. The defence ministry also took over the Hindustan Shipyard Limited (HSL) in Visakhapatnam last year from the ministry of shipping, so that it could use HSL’s facilities and infrastructure to build the submarines.
The new base, Project Varsha, will have special features to ensure safety of the submarines and the personnel onboard for maintenance. According to a source, the government would be taking the help of some other countries for the huge project as it required special fitments and attachments made of special material.
Located about 200 kilometres around Visakhapatnam at an undisclosed location, the base would be on the lines of the Chinese nuclear submarine base in Hainan island, the source said. The base will have accommodation and other facilities for the officers and men posted onboard.
The base would accommodate other submarines and ships if required, the source said, as a lot of vessels due for induction in the near future were facing space constraint.
Refusing to disclose the cost of the project and whether there would be any special facility for missiles, a source said, “Not sure when it would be ready. It might take time as it’s a special project and meant mainly for nuclear submarines.”
quadbikeThe reason the right wing parties failed to win the last 2 elections is due to the fact that they have no leader or leaders…but they will eventually get their act together.
As far as India moving to the right..the growing urban middle class is a lot more rightwards than the rural poor. The poor Hindu villager never had a problem with his equally poor Muslim neighbor but the matter is completely different in the cities.If you look at the trends the more India develops the more people join the middle classes the more towards the right the country will turn.
India condemnation of Israel’s flotilla attack was pretty weak compared to how it would have reacted even 20 years back.
Your analysis is somewhat flawed. In India Hindu-Muslim resentment has historic roots, unlike in Europe and other parts of the world where right wing parties and anti-minority stands gain popularity during an economic downturn.
Had you really checked the distribution of votes in the last election for example you can see that unlike you suggests there was no urban backing for the NDA. In fact in a lot of states which are effectively governed by the BJP the people still prefer a secular government at the centre.
However what is clearly notable is a growing love affair towards the west and America/Israel in particular in the young generation. When I was growing up America and Israel were considered as evil nations and Soviets were the saviors.
India started diplomatic relations with Israel in 1992 as part of a general westward shift in its economic and strategic policies, so you are basically right 20 years ago India would have commented in harsher terms.
quadbikeSo much for the problem cited by Swerve:
That news is a spin off from the times report which has been refuted by the Sauids. Check back a few pages.
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