More Rafales + Another fighter ?

Second fighter line “on the table”; FGFA talks moving forward, Jaguar upgrade coming soon

By Ajai Shukla
Business Standard, 5th Oct 16

Addressing his first press conference since India contracted for 36 Rafale fighters from France, Indian Air Force (IAF) chief, Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha, outlined on Tuesday his vision for how crippling deficiencies in fighter aircraft would be tackled.

Raha blamed the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government’s preoccupation with procedure for the IAF’s current aircraft shortfalls — it has just 34 fighter squadrons instead of the sanctioned 45. He said: “I think all our procurements have been more or less process driven and not outcome driven. [Now] there is a change of perception and now most of the procurement processes and policies are being amended so that it is (sic) outcome driven.”

“We have planned up to 2027 and if the inductions had been timely, the IAF’s capabilities, certainly in terms of combat aircraft — as of now it is good, but it would have been better.”

The IAF has not yet closed the Rafale chapter. With Dassault, the Rafale’s French vendor, believed to be readying a proposal for building 80 more Rafales in India, Raha stated: “We would like to have more, but the decision will be taken in the near future based on capabilities and the desirability of having [more] fighter aircraft of this class.”

Second fighter line

The air chief indicated that a new Make in India fighter production line could come up soon, based on “unsolicited offers” from Lockheed Martin, Boeing and Saab for building their fighters in India — respectively the F-16 Block 70, F/A-18 Super Hornet and the Gripen E. These offers are conditional on the IAF buying and operating the fighter in question.

“This is very much on the table and I’m sure whoever gives the best deal [will win]. All the aircraft are very capable, so it will depend upon who provides the best transfer of technology; and, of course, the price tag. It’s on the table; nothing is decided as yet.”

Said Raha: “This will not be just licensed manufacture. It will be proper transfer of technology. Also, India will become a hub for manufacturing, as well as maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) for other air forces in the region.

Jaguar

The IAF chief also flashed a green light on modifying and upgrading the Jaguar fleet, the IAF’s key fighter for deep penetration strikes. As Business Standard has reported (March 27, 2015 “Facing dwindling numbers, Jaguar upgrade crucial for Indian Air Force”) at least four of the six Jaguar squadrons (120 aircraft) will be rejuvenated with new Honeywell F-125N engines for $3 billion, a modern Airborne Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, indigenous DARIN-3 avionics and will carry the smart CBU-105 “sensor fuzed weapons” that India bought from Textron, USA.

Said Raha: “To exploit the Jaguar for the next 15-20 years, we are upgrading the aircraft with better weapons. I think there has been slow progress in the past but I’m sure this is going to pick up steam, and very soon we’ll see progress.”

Raha also said upgrade programmes were progressing well in the three Mirage 2000 squadrons (cost: Rs 12,100 crore); and three MiG-29 squadrons (cost Rs 6,400 crore).

Indo-Russian FGFA

The tortuous negotiations holding up the Indo-Russian Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) are resolved, Raha confirmed. The two sides are believed to have agreed on a $4 billion “R&D Contract” that could see HAL and Sukhoi co-develop and build up to 250 FGFAs for the IAF.

Said Raha: “[Earlier, the IAF] found gaps in information on transfer of technology; how they (Sukhoi) have achieved these 5th generation technologies, and in visibility of the total cost. So these issues were flagged… and now a lot of clarity has come on these issues. Hopefully things will be decided sooner rather than later on the FGFA.”

Tejas LCA

For the first time, the IAF chief spelt out a detailed commitment and roadmap for inducting 120 Tejas fighters into the IAF in a decade.

Raha said the first squadron, which will have 20 Tejas with “initial operational certification” (IOC), would have four fighters this year, with HAL boosting production to eight fighters annually from next year. “So in another year and a half’s time, we will have a full squadron of LCA’s – the IOC version”, he said.

Raha revealed the long-delayed “final operational certification” (FOC) of the Tejas was imminent. “I’m sure in another five-six months FOC would be cleared and production will start as soon as [HAL] finishes producing the IOC version. So we expect that the FOC version [of the Tejas] will be operationalized in an IAF fighter squadron in another three years time.”

Meanwhile, the Tejas Mark 1A, with improved radar, weapons, electronic warfare capability and maintainability would fly in three-four years.

“We should be able to start production of this aircraft by 2020-21; and in another five-seven years [i.e. by 2025-28], we’ll have 80 Tejas Mark 1A fighters”, said Raha.

Let’s hope Donald Trump won’t become President. If he does he said he will axe the F 35 in favour of upgraded F 16/ F15s.

Change in government means change in approach.

The new government is not averse to single vendor deals.

Yes, I heard a British financial aid to India will be used to fund the deal.

Yes we funded the Empire for a couple of centuries, consider it small change in return.

An RFP isn’t a binding document. It’s a request for proposals. There have been cases where RFPs lay out desired terms, or performance, or cost, which are unacceptable to any supplier or unachievable, & offers have been received none of which meet in full the terms of the RFP – but someone’s got a contract, because a proposal has been accepted as good enough.

An RFP is a wish list, an initial negotiating position, not a contract. If there’s a condition which can only be achieved in certain circumstances, which do not currently exist, you specify in your proposal (i.e. what the RFP is a request for) what conditions are required for you to meet that condition.

In this case, it looks to me as if the disagreement has been on a point like that. Dassault (perfectly reasonably) laid out the reasons why it is unable to guarantee HAL’s work under existing conditions (such as being unable to check or control it), & after a lot of noise, the Indian side has accepted that, & agreed to impose conditions on HAL which will make it possible for Dassault to give such a guarantee. After that, it’s a question of details.

But its because they have replied to the RFP and all its clauses must have been agreed to that is why they have been even allowed to part take in the trials and selection process. There have been many cases in Indian deals where manufacturers not complying to the RFP had been excluded.

Its not a linear escalation. That’s the problem.

Double the price or triple the price, the GoI would not cancel it outright because the blame for a flawed competition lies with it as does the responsibility for accepting an incomplete price quote from Dassault.

As for the ‘anonymous’ nature of the reporting, its a fact that the originally budgeted amount was $12 billion (given official MoD press notings from 2011 IIRC). As to the current price, there are far too many reports quoting a price in excess of $20 billion for it to be false. But even if we disregard that fact is even a low quote for the Rafale will take it into that price range.

Egypt is reportedly paying $160 million for each of its 24 Rafales (thanks to a weak Euro). At the same unit cost, 126 Rafales would be priced at $20.1 billion without offsets, licensing cost, local production, local assembly, training for the same and ToT cost. There’s simply no way India’s Rafale purchase would be priced under $20 billion.

This is where you have got it all wrong. The current GOI headed by another party will blame the previous GOI for approving the Rafale deal.

It only has to justify the decision for a single vendor FMS purchase to the Indian nation. Like the Koreans did it can show the middle finger to Dassault and others. They would still come back for more deals in future because there is money to be made in India.

Look at the Light Utility Helicopter deal – Euro-copter has been coming back for more despite the deal being cancelled twice after expensive and extensive trials. Its a buyers market and India buys the most weapons. If you don’t want to deal with India its bad for you not India.

Anyway as we talk the Rafale deal seems to getting on track, that Dassault is meeting GOI halfway itself shows the new government was not just messing with them when the Defense Minister spoke of scraping the deal. New India means business.

er, first, before being L1, Rafale beat the competition (including the SH) along with the Typhoon in long testing phase done by IAF. Then, only between Typhoon and Rafale, the french managed to be the lowest bidder.

Now, if India was to cancel what poses problem (ToT) and wants just aircrafts off the shelf, they can order them from Dassault just as well. By just ramping up the production line to its full capacity Dassault would be able to deliver all of them by 2021-22 (considering they also have the “urgent” order for Egypt, and that the French government would absolutely love to let Dassault have fun with other customers and not have to pay for new aircraft for the french air force (french air force who, obviously, would not love that idea all that much 😉 )

IF there’s no Rafale deal, there is no MMRCA. MMRCA is dead then, and what we will be left with is a serious shortfall of aircraft. Of course more Su30s is the logical way forward. But IAF and logic are not very compatible, they will want a modern, western platform that can be quickly inducted.

The government will want the deal to be done ASAP as well, without allegations of corruption. Under the FMS route India can procure S.H without the hassle of another competition. ToT was offered by all including Boeing when the competition was alive, I am sure something can be worked out. The fact is that even after Rafale was selected, most of the competitors stayed back with offices and staff in India. They did not pack up and leave.

Its not ideal, but India will have options if Dassault plays hardball. That is all.