Bit of an empty point then because the discussion was about the SCAF’s value-proposition and export prospects, not whether it would “exist”. Your example of the Rafale is an apt one, and one would expect the SCAF to compare to the PCA much like the Rafale does to the F-35.

We misunderstand each other beacause my point was not about exports but if it would exist. Newer generation combat aircrafts are more exepnsive to develop but you develop fewer types for a longer period of time than previously…Which make the burden more bearable. Not to say it is chaeap !

Lets not count one’s chickens before they hatch. The F4 will no doubt feature various upgrades to its systems but the “full GaN radar/GaN panels” type claims are just empty speculation at this point. When we have real information about the F4 configuration we can compare it to the F-35 Block 4.4.

As I recall, the rumours about GaN EW on the F3R were taken as gospel truth as well as – at least around here – and later explained away with a ‘grapes-were-sour’ type justification. In the end, the first aircraft to actually field a GaN EW system will be the F-15E.

F3R : it is not about rumor but this interview in aviationweek :

France has also announced big investments for Rafale. Dassault has already inducted the first of the French Navy Rafale F1-standard aircraft to begin an upgrade to the latest service configuration, F3-04T, which includes the active, electronically scanned array (AESA) version of the RBE2 radar and the DDM-NG missile-warning system. The program goal is to retain all the aircraft in service through rolling upgrades, the company says.

The DDM-NG, part of the Thales/MBDA Spectra defensive avionics suite, comprises two imaging infra-red sensors located on either side of the fighter’s fin-tip pod, each with a hemispherical field of view and jointly providing full spherical coverage other than the area blanked by the fighter’s wing. Its ability to detect and track other targets, such as aircraft, is classified, according to Dassault.

In January, the French defense ministry awarded Dassault a contract for the next major Rafale upgrade, known as F3-R.

It includes more powerful processors and upgrades to the Multi-functional Information Distribution System-Low Volume Terminal datalink and the automatic ground collision avoidance system.

For tactical and strategic reconnaissance missions, F3-R will include in-cockpit replay and analysis of imagery from the Thales Areos long-range oblique photography (Lorop) reconnaissance pod. The Rafale pilot or weapon system operator will be able to review imagery without interrupting the pod’s collection process.

The upgrade will also see a series of improvements to Spectra. Developed by Thales and MBDA, Spectra is a fully automated system that provides electromagnetic detection, laser and missile warning, jamming and four chaff/flare dispensers. French industry sources say that during operations over Libya in 2011, Rafale literally disappeared from the radar screens of the Libyan air force, performing “soft kills” on enemy radar systems [already related in one of the lastest issue of FOX3].

Bruno Carrara, director of the Rafale program at Thales, says the F3-R upgrade will involve a more advanced electromagnetic detection capability based on new digital wide-band-receiver technologies, improving the suite’s spectrum analysis as well as its instantaneous interception capability.

Thales will also update Spectra’s solid-state jamming subsystem, which was one of the first to use electronically steered phased-array antennas. Carrara says for F3R, Spectra will include more powerful antennas, while further increasing the power supply so that more threats can be jammed simultaneously. Like Saab, Thales will use GaN technology because of its power and efficiency.

Since the late 1990s, Spectra’s designers have dropped hints that the system can perform “active cancellation”—receiving a radar signal and mimicking the aircraft’s echo exactly one-half wavelength out of phase so the radar sees nothing.

Carrara again implies that such a capability is in use: “There are other strategies, such as generating signals that will encompass or be higher than the echo from the aircraft, so that the radar threat will receive a signal that will mask the echo from the aircraft,” Carrara says. “Instead of creating a false echo and drawing the radar to the wrong place, the idea is to produce a signal that will mask the echo of the aircraft, so the radar will be unable to detect the aircraft Spectra is protecting.”[…]

and for rafale and GaN it is form airforce monthly special edition :

“Standard F4 will be even more ambitious than F3R,” explained the programme director. “While F3R is mainly restricted to software upgrades, new hardware will be required for the far-reaching F4, even though the airframe will remain unchanged. In practice, F4 will be split into F4.1, for older, in-service aircraft, and F4.2, for new-build airframes. F4.1 will be limited to a number of improvements only in order to avoid complex hardware changes, but F4.1 will accept the new Rafale weapons now being developed. F4.2 will include the whole package of upgrades for the radar, the electronic warfare suite, the Front Sector Optronics and the cockpit to accommodate a helmet-mounted display (HMD). “All Tranche 4 aircraft – the 28 airframes to be delivered in 2021-23, and all Tranche 5 Rafales will be delivered as F4.2 aircraft. Standard F4 development will take about six years, with service entry due in 2025, but some systems will find their way into the inventory earlier, as soon as they are ready, using a building-block approach thanks to software upgrades.”

(…)

Radar and Spectra upgrades The current Thales RBE2 AESA radar will be further improved. It will benefit from the introduction of two new air-tosurface modes: a ground moving target indicator (GMTI), to detect and track moving targets over land, and a UHR (ultra high resolution) mode, to replace the current HR functionality for synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery, offering superior radar image quality at very long distances. The ability to interleave radar modes will be enhanced, thus helping provide aircrews with even better situational awareness. The Spectra electronic warfare/selfprotection suite produced by Thales and MBDA is fully integrated. It is composed of a wide range of systems: a Détecteur d’Alerte Radar (DAR, or radar warning receiver), a Détecteur d’Alerte Laser (DAL, or laser warner), a Détecteur de Départ Missile (DDM or DDM NG, or missile launch detector), a high-power radar jammer, and decoy dispensers that can launch a range of flares and chaff. Over the coming months, Spectra will be improved, with bandwidth extensions for the detectors and jammers to cover lower and higher frequency bands, thus providing an instantaneous reaction against any type of pop-up threat. “Our objective here is to obtain extremely accurate RF emitter geolocation and 3D tracking, including of airborne radars,” said the programme director. “The capabilities of a single Rafale to locate and track a threat without resorting to traditional, but timeconsuming, methods of triangulation or of bearing measurements along the aircraft’s flight path will be significantly improved. It is a very important step forward, and the recent progresses made by Spectra will boost the capabilities of the Rafale in that field.”

GaN technology Thales and the DGA are actively preparing the future radar developments that will be introduced on Standard F4.2, incorporating cutting-edge Gallium Nitride (GaN) technology for the radar and jammer antennas. Thanks to additional radar apertures, detection capabilities will be unmatched and electronic attack capabilities will become a reality. The programme director explained: “Even though we are entirely satisfied with the current RBE2 AESA radar, we are already working on the next generation scheduled to appear on new-build aircraft in 2025. “For the same volume, GaN technology will offer an expanded bandwidth, more radiated power and an even easier ability to switch from one mode to another, or from one functionality to another. With the same antenna, we will be capable of generating combined, interleaved radar, jamming and electronic warfare modes as part of an electronic attack mission. “GaN emitters will not be restricted to the radar and they will also equip the Spectra suite. For example, for the antennas in the wing apexes, ahead of the canard foreplanes, we could obtain a very quick emission/reception cycle, either saving some volume or augmenting radiated power. On Tranche 5 Rafales, we will have at our disposal twice the amount of transmitted power for the radar and jamming antennas. Thales has already produced and tested in laboratories a series of GaN module prototypes for the new radar and initial testing results look extremely promising.

“Following the entry into service of the AESA in 2013, the deliveries of the Meteor in 2018 will push the Rafale into a class of its own – we will be the only ones in the world operating a fighter equipped with an AESA and a ramjet-propelled missile – but we have to keep investing to maintain our leadership. This is the reason why this GaN technological path is so important, especially for the development of additional emitting panels and apertures that will offer extended radar angular coverage. “It is not just an improvement; it is a real technological breakthrough in the field of detection. Jamming modes will not be left untouched and will push the Rafale’s electronic warfare capabilities to unprecedented levels thanks to the introduction of what we call ‘smart jamming’, with a wider band coverage and GaN emitters from 2025. These capabilities will be further expanded thanks to the adoption of MFAs [Multi-Function Arrays].” The Rafale’s Front Sector Optronics (FSO) will be fitted with a new-generation infrared search and track (IRST) sensor optimised for the tracking of air targets, either alone, or in conjunction with the RBE2 radar.

The DGA oversees a number of research programmes aimed at promoting advanced technologies for the Rafale in the field of sensors, especially for the RBE2 radar, as the Rafale Programme Director explained. “We will soon launch the AESA NG programme, which will supplement the MFA [Multi-Function Array], CARAA [Capacités Accrues pour le Radar RBE2 à Antenne Active, enhanced capabilities for the active RBE2 radar] and MELBAA [Modes et Exploitation Large Bande pour l’Antenne Active, wide-band operating modes for the active array] projects in order to help mature technologies to be produced from 2025 for Standard F4.2. “The CARAA demonstrator first flew in late 2015. It is composed of numerous receptors, enabling the creation of radar lobes optimised by advanced calculation techniques to cancel jamming in many directions simultaneously. “The first flight of the MELBAA demonstrator is expected in late 2017. The trials will focus on dedicated types of targets: slowmovers, helicopters, fighters hiding in the Doppler beam, stealth targets etc. Further developments will include interleaved modes that will be further refined thanks to the appearance of a new generation of calculators powerful enough to provide the processing power required to exploit these modes fully.”

Spectra with GaN is being flown and tested since late 2014 (source Air & Cosmos).

I did not post everything but there are plenty of other research program to support new technologies that will apply to the rafale F4 and eventually to the SCAF (stealth, engines etc)

New generation aircrafts are expensive to develop but this need to be mitigated :

1) There are fewer types to develop. For instance rafale is progressively replacing every types in inventory (mirage IV, mirage F1, jaguar, SE, mirage 2000…)
2) Product life cycle is longer.

It should also be noted that there should be some porting between rafaleF4/Fx/MLU/whatever and SCAF to gain time and money. Same is intended for Tempest. It is a continuous investment with incremental upgrades and standards…With a bump when you need a new airframe but you don’t start from scratch for every systems. And in parallel there are continuously several research program going on preparing for newer technology for the rafale or a future airframe (PEA/LEA etc).

That’s why I am confident that even France alone can cope with such a program if the political will is maintained. In every domain (aircraft design, radar, optics, EW, engines…) France is at top level with a few othe countries. The situation would be different for some other nations where the gap to reach the next generation is much bigger.

NGF is already a cooperation between France and Germany – there is a political agreement at the highest level. Spain is very likely to follow.

Not sure for Belgium but if true it tells that they view the NGF as a generation ahead.

Tempest is a bet for UK to keep ints industry post-Brexit. It is too early to say if it is going to be successful or not. Japan, Sweeden or a ME country could help this program. But at this stage it is less secures than NGF.

I can’t say for sure for the Tempest, but for the SCAF above, the mock-up and the Catia CGI are representative of the general layout of what will be the real aircraft/demonstrator. And its consistent with their vision explained above. General architecture will remain the same, it is not just a random attempt. Work has already gone into it.

So sleek, so nice ! And a design more modern than f22 and f35.