eagle1Its a win for whatever US major who wins NGAD, its a bleeding disaster and a final nail in the coffin for whatever design capability that still happens to exist in the UK.
And read the document again, this will only go forward if foreign partners are found, foreign partners not called USA mind you.
I wouldn’t discard the possibility of joining US NGAD or Franco-German SCAF if they don’t find foreign partners. Tempest program is a bet. And even if the UK fails to attract foreign partners it would be in a better position to negotiate a bigger share in NGAD or SCAF, but they will have to abdicate the lead in the design.
Note that by “foreign partners” we are talking of “governments” that are willing to invest and buy the product…Not foreign aerospace companies which are just eager to secure some aditional tunover. At the end of the day it is the tax payer who is going to pay the vast majority of the CAPEX investment. And attracting “foreign governments” to sign a “political agreement” is far more challenging.
eagle1Exactly what I was wondering..they produced the Rafale, which has to be one of the most beautiful designs of all time..and then the next gen fighter turns out to be so disappointing..Typhoon was quite a looker as well, but this Tempest looks downright ugly. The front fuselage seems similar to that of the J-20, another fugly fighter.
SCAF isn’t so bad looking. It is quite sleek looking actually and not too “boxy” like J20, F35 or Tempest. Looking at the SCAF, I think it should have a good finess with its high swept wing and no vertical tail. It is closer to YF-23 or SU-57 in terms of sleekness. The design seems performance oriented which is not always a given for stealth jets.
eagle1It make sense as BAE is backed by the UK, Dassault is backed by France…And airbus not clearly backed by a one country. They are the weakest link and are looking for an industrial alliance to maintain their R&D offices and skills. Surely BAE is more “compatible” than with Dassault which is a big high tech SME compared to other multinational.
However this would be politicaly sensitive as Airbus is also working on SCAF with Dassault. But if in the end SCAF and Tempest can fuse in a single fighter program that will be good news for Europe.
It seems that there is some kind of a remake of the early eighties with competing demonstrator which eventualy lead to Typhoon and rafale programs. Hope this will end well !
Interesting times ahead…But decision must be taken quickly as it will be more difficult to join forces if already a lot of work and effort have been invested in respective programs.
eagle1Exellent high level conference…A must for anyone genuinely interested in the future of military aviation. Especially for the few journalists on this forum 😉 It seems that the approach will somewhat diverge with the F35. I liked the part on the F35 vs SCAF when they say the goal was to develop the techology beyhond the F35…
They tried to put everything in one platform (F35) wich has its compromises while for the SCAF operational needs will be allocated in different objects working in real time in colaborative combat as a “system of system” helped by IA to penetrate sofisticated air defence.
eagle1It is of no wonder that other aerosapce comapny are willing to join as they are willing to secure industrial activity and futur profits. UK being alone in the program for now, there is more room/opportunity for cooperation.
But what really matters to go forward is a political agreement between nations at the highest state level…Eventually it is tax payers of each respective countries that are going to pay for the program, not the industry (or just marginaly).
eagle1Option taken from Qatar for 36 more rafales on top of the 24 already ordered :
Le Qatar a également pris une nouvelle option pour 36 appareils de plus.
eagle1delete
eagle1It must be reminded that before the Brexit the plan was Dassault and BAE to team up for the next gen military jet.
There are pelnty of Franco-British cooperation success as well ! National pride between the two counties needed to be managed however. France/UK/Germany/Italy cooperation would have been great for a true European 6th gen jet…The question is : can you maintain all the skills necessary to design a jet from A to Z in each country if you are four ?
eagle1Funny that you would consider the Germans a more suitable partner for the Tempest program than the Italians, Eagle1.
It was the Germans who almost put an end to the Typhoon program. Twice if I remember correctly.
Meanwhile Italy patiently went along with the delays, even going as far as renting Tornado F3 and f-16 stopgap fighters.
The Germans who have never designed an operational combat aircraft ( by themselves ) since WW2.
Meanwhile Italy has at least designed some fighter/bombers and quite a few trainers.
Germany does not have the will ( or a military aircraft industry to try and preserve ), or the know-how. They have larger amounts of disposable cash than the Italians; but then, so do the Middle East nationsAnd Italian and British industry are already partly integrated through Selex and Leonardo ( Agusta-Westland )
I did not imply that, I wasn’t clear enough maybe. I agree that the Italians have a more robust military aerospace industry. However the advantage of partnering with Germany is that for France or the UK, your are not partnering with another nation that necessary wants the lead but has quite a lot of money. Dassault taking the lead has not stir debates with Germany, just like it seems natural that Germany has the lead for the new MBT. Not sure the story would be the same if Dassault had to partner with BAe.
At least with Germany you have a financialy robust partner that isn’t going to be faced with a risk of debt crisis leaving the project in emergency.
There is a change in German position regarding its military spending, especially nowadays with the Trump administration. European understands more clearly that they should remain autonomous and that they cannot expect everything from the US. I would say times are favourable for European initiative like SCAF or TEMPEST to remain independent from the US.
eagle1Dassault comenting on Tempest :
“Good news.” The United Kingdom’s decision to launch a new fighter jet on Monday, July 16, to succeed the Eurofighter and American F-35, which equip its armed forces, is welcomed by Éric Trappier. CEO of Dassault Aviation *. “This decision proves that combat aircraft is a strategic topic for European countries, that it generates enthusiasm and competition against the hegemonic will of the United States,” he said on the sidelines. of the publication of the group’s half-yearly results on Thursday.
The British program, called Tempest, responds to the Franco-German fighter plane project that will succeed the French Rafale, built by Dassault Aviation, and the Eurofighter, manufactured by Airbus Defense, BAE Systems and Leonardo.
The Eurofighter equips several European armies including Germany. Several milestones have been achieved since the political impulse given by Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Angela Merkel, in July 2017. The latest, the signing, at the Franco-German summit last June, of two letters of common intention: the first for the realization of the Future Air Combat System (Scaf), which will be operational by 2040; the second for the design of an operational battle tank from 2035.
Dassault Aviation expects “a commitment in the long term” and a budget sanctuarized. And “the sooner the better,” says Éric Trappier. He notes that the United Kingdom has announced an investment of 2 billion pounds (2.3 billion euros) by 2025 in the Tempest project. As if the British were trying to pick up the Franco-German alliance. In time, could these two projects converge? Too early to say. If the Scaf Franco-German is intended to embark other European countries, beforehand, it “needs a locomotive. And it is made up of two countries, France and Germany, “summarizes Eric Trappier.
At this point, Saab, who is building the Gripen, the third European fighter, has not made public his intentions. The Swedish modernizes its aircraft, just like Dassault Aviation, which, in parallel with the Scaf which prepares for the long term, improves the Rafale with the standard F3R and, tomorrow, the standard F4.
Over the past six months, the French group has continued to deliver Rafale, including two to France. Dassault Aviation has also signed a new batch of 12 Rafale for Qatar. Doha lifted an option taken in May 2015 as part of a first contract for the purchase of 24 French fighter jets. Qatar has also taken a new option for 36 more aircraft.
Dassault’s military activity is driven by Rafale deliveries to export customers and the possible realization of new international contracts. The Rafale is notably in competition in Belgium. After three white years (2019-2021), deliveries to the French armed forces must resume in 2022. As for the Falcon business jets, they operate in a market “that is better and better,” says Éric Trappier. Inventories of used jets have decreased and sales of new aircraft are recovering (18 orders in the first half). “The upturn comes from the US market and the rebound of Asia. We hope that Europe will follow, “says the group’s CEO.
Another source of satisfaction is the launch, in March 2018, of the 6X, the new long-range and wide-cabin Falcon, which is scheduled to come into service in 2022. Its good commercial start has made it possible to draw a line on the Falcon 5X , whose order book has been totally redacted. For 2018, Dassault plans to deliver 12 Rafale and 40 Falcon aircraft and to achieve a turnover close to that of 2017 (4.8 billion euros).
eagle1???? and Uk is not fully involved in F-35 also? Or you think they would cancel the order and will sell Queen Elizabeth????
Let’s clear a thing : there is not any plane called Tempest as for now, just a fancy mock-up, they talk to have it operational about 2035 i.e. after ALL the others 6th gen projects already announced.
So they would be the successor of current Typhoons, putting all the european nations that had a part into the Eurofighter program at the same level.Neither it is necessary that they would join in a multinational program of the same dimension and complexity: given that the forecasted economy of scale never
materialized, or better was eaten up by the time and money needed to armonize the different requisites, maybe it would be better to just limit themselves to a more modest bilateral collaboration.
Think about Jaguar, Alpha jet and in our case AMX or even the different twins Yak-130/M-346 joint programs, all of them worked surely better than Typhoon and Tornado ones.
Your question is adressed on page 2 of this thread :
It is not very clear I agree, but most if not all capability described for the Tempest are coming for the F35 if they are not already available. At this stage it is hard to see what a F35 from 2035 could not bring compared to the Tempest.
The case for supporting UK aerospace industry is obvious, but much less obvious in terms of new capabilities and cost effectiveness. The UK equation is less compelling than for countries that are not in any so called “5th gen program” …It is both very important for their industry and air force.
That’s why it could also be a challenge to find partners if they are alredy in the F35 program. The case of joining a similar 5th gen+ jet might not be very compelling if the business case isn’t pretty robust in terms of payback. Given the UK probably want to keep the share of the Lion of the program, I am curious to see how a partneship would work out. Sweden/Saab seem the best bet in my view, that would make sense. But on the other hand they are already comited to the Gripen E development and procurement, I doubt they would have enough cash to take a significant share…At least medium term.
Finding partners is vital for the future of the program, for the moment it is like a Poker move with 2 Billions on the table to somewhat ignite the program and make it look as credible as possible to attract partners. The mock up and the communication frenzy is somewhat a testament of that. If this strategy fails, I don’t see a future to this program.
It is a bold move, good for them. At the same time you can guess some fear of being left aside after the Brexit and the threat of losing its position in the military aerospace industry.
The case is that while UK do participate in the F35 they have always been one of the very few nations being able to design a fighter jet by themself from A to Z. They want to maintain this know-how…The perspective is different compared to some other nations.
Despite the strong will, it is not certain yet that they will be able to fulfill their ambitions. I bet UK’s aerospace industry would have felt better if they could have partnered with the German as the lead nation and leave Dassault/France bite the dust…They must not like the Brexit !
eagle1With only the UK, there is currently more room to join the Tempst program…Not sure the tempo is good for other nations.
The unveiling of the Tempest program and the mock up doesn’t hide very well the panic mode of the UK aerospace industry but at least they are aware of the risk and are trying to do something.
Sure enough this will call for a reaction and boost the SCAF program ! The competition is on !!! 😉
One a side note : after years of domination of rafale & Typhoon in the forum discussions, FR35, SU-57 and J20 took the lead…In a few years the attention will shift towards Europe againg ^^
eagle1French President is going to have a briefing on SCAF roadmap and a demonstrator is to be ordered :
According to our information, a working group will shortly present its “roadmap” to President Macron on the Franco-German SCAF (Future Air Combat System).
A “plateau” gathering specialists from the Directorate General of Armament (DGA) and various staffs (Armed Forces, Air Force, Navy) is working on a classified secret-defense document. Once this one validated politically, the industrialists will join this team, then it will be the turn of the Germans, state and industrial. A “steering structure” will be put in place “before the end of the year, which should lead to the ordering of a” demonstrator “.
https://www.lopinion.fr/blog/secret-defense/scaf-va-etre-presente-president-macron-actualise-157095
eagle1Possible partners with the UK :
>> Italy would make sense in terms of industrial set-up as mentioned above…Not sure that Politics will follow due to the poor state of Italian finance and the fact that they are quite involved with the F35 (with an assembly line).
>> Japan is looking for an indegenous next gen military jet but I think they just want some assistance for development, not sure they will accept not to become the lead contractor…They have a some big industrial palyers to feed in termes of industrial workload & research.
>> Sweeden would make sense in terms of industrial cooperation with SAAB, not sure the country has enough finance to fund a significant part considering they are already making a big effort to develop and procure the Gripen E.
>> Middle east countries would be ideal, ready to pay big money without taking a significant share of the work.
You can imagine there are intense diplomatic talks behind the curtains so that this 2 Billion pound bet can be succesfull. 2 billion is enough to ignite the program and wait for some future partners for some times but I doubt it will survive if no one joins.
Tempest program is UK aerospace industry post Brexit fear of being left aside and losing its know-how. This called for immediate action, a strange mock up and a big communication frenzy/intense lobbying.
eagle1It is not very clear I agree, but most if not all capability described for the Tempest are coming for the F35 if they are not already available. At this stage it is hard to see what a F35 from 2035 could not bring compared to the Tempest.
The case for supporting UK aerospace industry is obvious, but much less obvious in terms of new capabilities and cost effectiveness. The UK equation is less compelling than for countries that are not in any so called “5th gen program” …It is both very important for their industry and air force.
That’s why it could also be a challenge to find partners if they are alredy in the F35 program. The case of joining a similar 5th gen+ jet might not be very compelling if the business case isn’t pretty robust in terms of payback. Given the UK probably want to keep the share of the Lion of the program, I am curious to see how a partneship would work out. Sweden/Saab seem the best bet in my view, that would make sense. But on the other hand they are already comited to the Gripen E development and procurement, I doubt they would have enough cash to take a significant share…At least medium term.
Finding partners is vital for the future of the program, for the moment it is like a Poker move with 2 Billions on the table to somewhat ignite the program and make it look as credible as possible to attract partners. The mock up and the communication frenzy is somewhat a testament of that. If this strategy fails, I don’t see a future to this program.
It is a bold move, good for them. At the same time you can guess some fear of being left aside after the Brexit and the threat of losing its position in the military aerospace industry.
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