Another factor to consider is upgraded S-200 SAMs. Here is a good assessment of this systems including Iran’s unusual deployment.
http://geimint.blogspot.com/2007/07/s-200-sam-system-site-analysis.html
We, the people that will pay for even more costly oil, our(NATO) soldiers that are abroad and will face much better prepared opposition. It’s so easy to give theories and play scenarios behind the computer screen.
Actually, it will be whoever’s heads bombs and missiles fall on when the orders are issued. This first and foremost includes civilians.
Yes its easy to play theories and scenarios behind computer screen. But isn’t it better to discuss this and realize possibilities, and repercussions than say “bring it on” and have everyone pay enormously.
I believe in balance of cold war since all sides are arming up as they are. I believe all sides prefer this. It can actually lead to gradual disarmament, and peace.
🙂
don’t know about you guys, but i am starting to like this plane again – a lot.
On a first look from old photos, i was very happy and it look interesting as hell, and promissing.
On a second look, i though it is actually ugly version of what it seemed at first.
Now I am getting to like it again the more i can see top view, and wing shape.
Thankfully its another design no one can say its a copy of western F !
Its easy to say that, but the current state of defence shows that a singular strike is very much an option, due to the quantity of targets and their vulnerability. There is no requirement to destroy the programme completely, though that would be good, its just a bonus!
Its not a war unless Iran makes it into a war. The Mullahs don’t want a war, so the chances of them doing anything that will definately start a war is near zero. Iran could go all out against Israel, but would they want Israel going all out against them? No way! The “MAD” style thinking only really applies when each can do the same severity of damage as they receive, and thats not the situation with Iran and Israel. You think the Mullahs would want to risk losing their power? I certainly don’t.
I have to dissaagree on some points.
#1 “Its not a war unless Iran makes it a war”
It is a war to Iran the moment bombs start to fall from the sky on their country. No need to develop this picture further. Attacking another country is declaration of war to that country weather the attacker likes this or not. So if Israel intrudes Iran and drops bombs and cause damage, this is war on Iran’s land.
Its not war in Israel yet (until Iran decides, if it decides to retaliate) But it is in Iran. Thats why i said earlier, its strike to one, but war to the other.
In any case, getting back to topic, I think that getting to Iran and delivering enough planes to accomplish successful single strike mission is hard to imagine for me. Iran is large and targets are many. How many planes would it take to deliver damage to those hardened deep buried sites. Also how many of them need to carry AA missiles to fight off dozens and dozens of Mig-21, 29s, FF-14, and Sukhoys if they decided to fly against them in large numbers.
I’m just trying to see what could happen if they did?
wanderlei- regarding 50 MiG-29s, why would they do more for the Iranians then they did for the Iraqis? As long as one of the Tomahawks first targets is C3 facilites, the MiGs wont get up to much.
Well, i don’t know why Iraq’s Mig-29s didn’t engage more. I only know of 3-4 instances where two were shot down by F-15s, and other instances where they hit B-52, F-111 and possibly Tornado. So thats limited, but not that bad. Fact is that Iraq didn’t want to send their best plane to get overwhelmed by bigger and better organized force, so they barely used them.
I didn’t mean one or two Mig-29s taking off and trying their luck against armada. I meant more like more integrated defensive attack from below by multiple 12-24 or more Mig-29s disrupting this “single strike” mission, which could overwhelm bombers. In addition many dozens of Mig-21s could overwhelm AA capability of mission focued strike group.
I mean how many ground attack planes plus their defenders would be sent in possible single strike by Israel? 25-50 armed aircraft?
The main difference is you are talking about a war, not a surgical strike. Israel will make one strike, with a very small chance of a second follow up strike. Sure, if the Israelis came over day after day then the Yugoslav example would be valid, and sure the Iranains could start hitting some of the regular strike back with fighters.
Well, yes and no.
Its a strike to one, but WAR to the other. So, both sides must look at this as war, or be in denial. Specially when they are within a reach of each other via SS missiles.
I think Iran is actually preparing to make sure a Single air strike is not an option, in which case the attack is not worth it at all.
What makes you think that Iran has 80+ MiG-29s in service? Iran certainly doesn’t have a large number of MiG-29s.
Do a search for ‘Exotic Fulcrums’
Also see in regards to MiG-29 serials
http://www.iranmilitaryforum.net/index.php?topic=1239.15
TJ
Well, again, i don’t have much to support any info on Iran. That’s why i made this thread as I’m interested in what others think, or know.
This Wiki link states 88+10 Mig-29s (first i came across)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_of_the_Iranian_Air_Force#cite_note-waf-1
This Wiki link states 44 Mig-29s
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_Air_Force
I’m a bit surprised that this is not more known to public.
Moderator:
Please delete this post if needed, but give this thread a chance.
I see no disrespect here yet, and related to title material.
back to topic:
Considering 11 years ago air attack on Yugoslavia, which is like 20 times smaller and less defended than Iran, while being attacked by enormous fleet of over 200 aircraft per night. What size of fleet would be used in an attack by Israel alone as far as number of aircraft go, and would surface to surface missiles be considered?
thanks
Iran doesn’t have many spares for its MiG-29s and its J-7 HOtdog fleets are limited to day time operations.
What makes you think that there is lack of spares for Mig-29s ? For a fleet of 80+ I would think Iran has plenty of spares in warehouse. Also, why wouldn’t Russia help them maintain these on regular basis, including some upgrades?
I still think even 50 battle ready Mig-29As can seriously hurt air attack plans.
cheers
thanks for the links PLA-MKII!
Iran is a HUGE country. Getting in deep enough, and out is a major project specially for Israel as they don’t border with Iran. I believe Iran would get plenty of warnings before actual intrusion by enemy aircraft. This is considering USAF are not carrying an attack, and Israel decides to try surprise attack.
I also see Iran having a lot more Tor systems by now. Not that i have any info to support this.
Iranian AF is numerous as well, and considering how much is known about their F-14s keeping in shape, I would guess that Their Mig-29s are well maintained. A large number of ACTUALLY BATTLE READY Mig-29s can be a good reason not to attack.
peace!
apologies if this is an obvious fact to most.
What prevents China from having S-400 systems already, or very soon?
Is Russia not exporting any variant of it? If so, why not?
No
so where is the rest of this photo. Looks like the only higher quality image. Someone is having a lot of fun?
I think both Mig 1.44 and J-20 designs are very identical. Last picture of J-20 seems like an updated stealthized version of the Mig 1.44!
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totally!
I was thinking to make exact same post.
Dear sir,
Is it just me or did both the Chinese and the Russians give up on all aspect stealth? This plane would make a decent interceptor and might be good front the frontal aspect, but the rear doesn’t look stealthy. Do diverterless intakes have speed limits?
Maybe is more different mentality for the choice of the design.
I figure that 3D non stealthy nozzles are more capable and useful in flight, yet less expensive, but not stealthy. How much do you really want to be stealthy as a defensive fighter?
USA planes are always intruders, and need more stealthyness than anything !
For China, and Russia, frontal stealthyness is a concern, but they would not compromise flying capability, nor pay extra) for maximum possible stealthiness, if they find their less stealthy, less expensive desighn is a serious threat to USA made weapons.
The Cold War is over nearly 20 years ago my friend.
why don’t you tell me the NATO code name for the JF-17, J-10, and JH-7 if you know it.
over ??
Cold war was only paused for few years already a while ago. Its actually most accurate to state that cold war only transitioned. As far as USA is concerned, it cannot end.