My friend “Bring it On”,

First of all in 1941 the Japanese fleet sailed over 3500NM to get to Pearl Harbour… This time any of the US Carrier Battle Groups has to cross over 12000NM from the continental USA just to reach the Persian Gulf…. Now who is “looking for trouble”? 😉

But returning to the core them of this thread, isn’t the art of praparing to go to war the art os speculation? If today the US Navy feels confortable sailing it’s CVBG into the Persian Gulf, would this situation persist if Iran had modern Flankers and advanced anti-ship missiles?

We armchair Admirals may be very confident and boast that A CVN would NEVER be sunk or even crippled by the Iranians, but in the real world some high ranking USN officer will have to bet his whole carreer on this one decision… What will he decide then?

The same way the Iranians have to ponder “Is a Su-30MKP purchase an efective way to spend our defense resources?” “Will the price of the Barrel keep on escalating indefinetly?” “Is 50 aircraft enough to keep the CVBGs away from the Persian Gulf shores?” “Or do we need instead 150 aircraft to acomplish this goal”? “Should we bet on Moskits and Yakhonts or the KH-59MK instead”?

This speculation is part of the military/political process and this is why we gather in forums like this, right?

Best regardsd,

HAmmer

Actualy the party launching the fist attack has the advantage, sionce it choses the starting moment of the war. The US has been in this enviable position in all it’s last wars… Had Saddam mounted a preemptive attack on US bases and ships before the full build up to the First Gulf War he might even have landed a hard or even cripling blow to the allied control/warfighting centers.

But most oponents tend to refrain from starting a full blown war against the US, a thing that has never stopped the US before, even in face of humongous popular and diplomatic oposition in other countries and in the UN.

This time let’s see if Iran has learned anything from previous wars. I think if a US Carrier is sunk the popular impact would be tremendous but I don’t think that nuclear weapons would be used. Lt’s supose the CVN is actualy sunk inside the Persian Gulf, what does the USN do to it? Destroy it further to keep it’s unexploded (nuclear?) stockpiles from reaching ennemy hands? Or leave it there waiting a better moment to salvage any usable item left behind?

It’s done with US fighters that fall behind enemy lines, but a CVN is much bigger and expensive. Even financialy a CVN loss woulde be a mighty blow, the last time I checked it carried a US$6Bi price tag on it, not counting the aircraft and weapons on board.

Comments?

Hammer

Would this sale be behind the recente US embargo on US company’s deals with Sukhoi/Rosoboronexport?

Regards,

Hammer

P.S.: Chavez is touting the new antiship Kh-59MK as his weapon of choice to keep US CVBGs away from his shores, maybe the Iranians also think this airframe-missile combo might clear up the Persian gulf from those pesky USN fighters… 😉

Hmm still can’t believe US is trembling because of 30 Su-30MKI’s and a few AK-47’s…

Maybe they are “trembling” for another reason: against all their deepest held superiority beliefs, the US government seems to be unable to make Chavez fall into place despite their blunt economic and political pressure strategies….

In the end Chavez might even make the neo cons doubt their own global superpowers…..

If we all agree, and we all do, that 24 or 240 Flankers mean no real threat to the US war machine. Why are the Americans going to all the trouble of trying to stop his defence purchases? It’s all a child’s game made into a pseudo-crisis by the US propaganda machine. Fools!

They are just helping Chavez acheive his goals in the end.

Regards

Hammer

Being from South America I can assure you that Chavez is:

a) NO communist
b) No terrorist supporter
c) No Drug Lord supporter

He is smart, don’t doubt it at once.

All his colorful and vehement US-bashing in the world media is exclusively for internal consumption and political propaganda purposes. Despite all his accusations he has never suggested stopping his oil flow to the USA. This would surely cause som major US reaction since roughly 15% of the US oil consumption comes from Venezuela these days.

His desire is to be in power forever and to be seen as a “Great Leader” in the region by being independent from the US sphere of influence.

Some things define his relative success at this stage of things.

a) The US specially under George W Bush has unilateraly pushed aside any semblance of political equality and respect between sovereign states. The US has assumed the mantle of “King of the Unipolar World” and relegated all others to a lesser point in the global pecking order. No “ifs”, “buts” or “whens” are even expected, just “do as you are told”. This attitude may be acceptable to most americans but rest assured that is not the way other peoples tend to see it. This generates considerabe ill will around the globe and helps generat support for governments willing to go fece to face against it. This also alienates second and third-tier nations that might opt to drag their feet when their political and/or military support is finally requested. US politically-driven aerospace component boycott has hurt Brazilian and Spanish national interest impeding profutable sales to Venezuela. Now two good allies are left feeling shortchanges and Russia is left to pick up the spois for free, good for them and their industrial and political independence.

b) The world-crushing US military might is unquestionable, it will last forever as long as: they can manage to fund it and they are able to focus this might on a single target “rogue-nation” at a time. Current commitments to the US continenta defense, to the long running wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as looming crisis with North Korea and Venezuela may end up stretching the US military too thin. More than that the US taxpayers faith in their militarys ability to wage short, bloodless, cheap wars of opportunity may be diminishing. War is never simple, bloodless OR cheap! The US has no wish to star a full blown war in South America, at least not now while it’s deeply distracted in the Middle East

c)The price of Oil is spyraling and shows no sign of breaking this trend, the more expensive oil gets the more money Chaves (and Iran by the way!) will have to purchase ney military toys. This expantion is derived from the growing need for Oil by China and India is cannot be contained unilateraly (and painlessly) by the US government. The more political stress the US generates the faster the price will rise in the global markets, the bigger the impact on the US economy and the more money the US “ennemies” will have to play with. Not the greatest geopolitical scenario to live with..

The combination of all these factors were just the green flag Chavez needed to launch his bid to become a relevant leadership in the South American region, and let me point it out the “people in the street” all around the continent are enjoying his antics… So I suggest the US ought to get used to him, because he’ll be around for a pretty long while… He wants no war with his neighbors he wants us all enegetically dependent on his oil and natural gas reserves. His recent intervention promoting the cancelation of Bolivian agreements with Brazilian Oil giant Petrobras has a movent directed at rising the cost of Bolivian gas sold to Brazil in order to justify a new cross continent gas pipeline from Venezuela to Argentina, he was successful, it will be built giving him further leverage in the continent’s affairs.

He is no fool, nor a war monger. He’s a shrewd mind inside a colorful personality don’t be fooled by the colors. If he can he’ll build a brand new gas pipeline all the way to the US.

Regards,

Hammer

http://www.basemilitar.com.br/noticias/flankerbrasil/index.htm

Pics and details about the Su-30 ferry flight through Recife! English speakers pleas click on the Babelfish icon on our home page first http://www.basemilitar.com.br

Enjoy!

Regards

Hammer

Are you sure about this? Could you explain to me Chavez´s role in the recent Brazil-Bolivia Gas Crisis. Chavez acted against Brazilian´s interests in Bolivia. It was betrayal and to me big enough to withdraw the Brazilian ambassador in Caracas and La Paz.

I believe the brazilian´s taxpayers and Petrobras shareholders will pay more than 2 billion dollar to continue this “best buddies” policy.

If you live in Brazil you´ll remember my words the next time you go to a gas station, but please wait for the elections, and to be more precisely, wait after the elections, You´ll see what this “best buddies” will do.

Hi Jungle Boy, sure I’m Brazilian, but if Lula and Chavez weren’t THE BEST OF BUDDIES, Lula would have put up some form of harsh diplomatic response to Evo Morales’ unilateral move against Petrobras. But quite the contrary, Lula goes on national TV only to say he “understands and respects the Bolivians’ reasons” for doing what they did to us… Zero reaction, no ambassadors recalled, nada!

There will be no military crisis with Venezuela while Mr Lula is our president.

🙂

Regards,

Hammer