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totoro

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  • in reply to: Shenyang J-21/31/F-60/AMF thread part 1 #2264536
    totoro
    Participant

    there has been no such info released. but one can guesstimate, based on pl12 missile footprint. said missile is 4 meters long and has packed width/depth of some 47 cm.

    if pl15, as seen on j20 is to be carried, length will be the same but width/depth drops to some 40 cm. weapon bay size is longer and deeper than one in f22, that much is likely. it may be narrower though. and there are no separate side weapon bays.

    in reply to: Chinese Air Power Thread 17 #2265699
    totoro
    Participant

    i agree it’s a matter of wear and tear on a particular airframe, and one image can’t be representative of all airframes produced.
    that being said, they could have made an effort to send a newer airframe, as first impressions do matter at expos. this particular one is one of the oldest ones, no?

    also, aerobatic teams fly their planes a lot. august 1st team have had these j10 since 2009.

    in reply to: Shenyang J-21/31/F-60/AMF thread part 1 #2266674
    totoro
    Participant

    It doesn’t have visible actuators because the wing is thicker and it has a similar mechanism for moving the flaps as f-15 or su-27 have.

    It doesn’t have IRST because it’s a concept and technology demonstrator. It probably has a bunch of subsystems used on flanker, readily available to Shenyang.

    It is indeed interesting the poster shows actuators under the wing, it may point to a further refined variant (possibly past the tech demonstrator stage) that is in works – possibly pointing to a whole new, thinner wing.

    in reply to: The PAK-FA News, Pics & Debate Thread XXIV #2210998
    totoro
    Participant

    which might mean wings (and plane) is more optimized for transsonic regime, unlike flanker.

    in reply to: RuAF News and Development Thread part 13 #2211036
    totoro
    Participant

    Is there a story behind that image? Why two russian air force transports in egypt?

    in reply to: Shenyang J-21/31/F-60/AMF thread part 1 #2211037
    totoro
    Participant

    Googling says average temperature during these days could be some 25 degrees celsius there. It’s quite south, really, bordering Macau.

    in reply to: RuAF News and Development Thread part 13 #2211264
    totoro
    Participant

    The demand might refer to number of planes projected for Chinese market and Russian market.
    Anyhow, any design completion at this early stage is far, far from final. I am sure it’s more of a compilation of requirements and general layout and class. I doubt any of the fine engineering documents have been created so far.

    in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2211605
    totoro
    Participant

    Does anyone have a source which explicitly states the breakdown of France’s f3 contract with Dassault? What does the announced figure includes? does it include *all* the avionics and engines needed for plane to perform its basic mission?

    in reply to: Chinese Air Power Thread 17 #2212780
    totoro
    Participant

    There’s always politics to be considered. Xian is as big producer of combat airplanes for Chinese air forces as Shenyang. Perhaps even slightly bigger. Government won’t just stop ordering from them. It is more likely a new product will be some day made by xian to replace jh7, but in the meantime maybe this new variant is a temporary measure…

    Likewise, Shenyang can’t just double their flanker production quickly and not let that affect the final pricetag. Also, flankers offer stuff jh7 don’t so they are bound to be pricier even in their current form and with current production rate.

    Maybe some people would like to pay more to get more capability, but as mentioned, politics are often in play. Perhaps PLAAF wants to have a clearly defined striker and fighter regiments, perhaps PLAAF couldn’t afford to have as many regiments it must have (again, due to politics, overall system performance be damned) if all regiments switched to more capable planes.

    in reply to: RuAF News and Development Thread part 13 #2220709
    totoro
    Participant

    with the volume of orders recently, i’m surprised knaaz hasn’t made the switch to a pulsed production line, rather than the fixed production stations as seen on the image.

    in reply to: Chinese Air Power Thread 17 #2226142
    totoro
    Participant

    I believe jh7 will continue to be produced for several more years and the hiatus (2-3 years long, i was wrong before saying it was 1-2 years long) is due to change to a new variant and possible issues delaying the new variant.

    thing is, chinese government likes to keep different manufacturers happy and in business. xian is a big supplier, one of biggest three, and without jh7 programme they’d have little to do. h6k production volume is fairly low and i don’t see it going on for more than a decade. Full rate y20 production is A) several years away and B) still probably not going to be more than several per year, perhaps 10.

    Also worth noting is that plaaf and planaf combined have ordered roughly 60-70 new combat planes each year. and that’s been going on for decades now, as far as i can follow. planes get more complex and costly, that’s true, but PLA budget was also growing considerably during the last 20ish years.

    So i don’t see either plaaf/planaf suddenly slowing down the renewal of the fleet, nor does it seem logical that xian would suddenly lose at least half of its earnings.

    I see J-20 replacing J11 units as it gets built. But that’s some years away still. What’s to come sooner is J10b and J16 replacing J7 and j8 units, like i said. At the same time JH7 will keep replacing Q5 units, as it has before.

    J15 production is likely to be sporadic and fairly slow, to slowly build up the force as there’s no pressing need since the other carriers are years away, perhaps over a decade away (if we’re talking about two more).

    in reply to: Chinese Air Power Thread 17 #2226634
    totoro
    Participant

    What is the consensus on what is going to happen with China’s 500+ remaining J-7s (and Q-5s, J-8s…) At current production rates China can’t hope to replace more than a fraction of existing airframes, so will we see —

    a.) significant increase in production rates
    b.) aircraft retired without replacement and units disbanded
    c.) units transition to other capability types e.g. airlift, unmanned systems
    d.) some combination of the above

    In my opinion, there’s already been a significant cut in numbers of truly active j-7. While I only have anecdotal proof, one can check out google earth images of almost all bases that have j-7 regiments (we’re talking 25+ bases) and see that in almost all of those there are harldy more than dozen planes on average, and it’s been like that for images a year old, two years old, three years old etc, meaning multiple images per base.

    So my theory is that the units may’ve been kept, but the planes serving in those units are actually being rotated in and out of active duty, and a lot of those j-7 units may be at half strength or less. (it would also explain how come there are still 10 or so units with J7II which are by now some 30-35 years old.)

    J8 and q5 units, on the other hand, seem at full strength, but since there’s something like 200ish or each type and both types were in production for chinese air force less than a decade ago, i would think those two types can be replaced on one-for-one basis, if plaaf wants that.

    It remains to be seen what will happen with jh7 production, which has been on some sort of hiatus for the last year or two. Before that, it churned out some 190+ planes in the last ten years or so. With that sort of production the remaining q5 units will probably get replaced by jh7 variant, though number of planes in unit will likely drop from 32+ to 24, which is standard for jh7 units.

    J16 and J10b are likely to keep replacing planes in j8 and j7 regiments, now that j11b production seems to have ended. If production rates remain as they were, that’s some 500ish j16 and j10b in the next ten years, replacing at least the same number of j8 and j7 (if not a bit more, as some j7 units have *nominally* more than 24 planes)

    I do think the number of regiments will come down a little bit, as j7 is phased out, as i don’t see plaaf using half strength regiments populated with j10. But you never know…

    in reply to: RuAF News and Development Thread part 13 #2233166
    totoro
    Participant

    I find it strange that pakda will be subsonic yet use nk-32 engine’s core. I mean, to use an engine that was meant to be supersonic, remove its cold section and afterburer then make a new cold section, probably pushing the bypass rate even more – it seems a strange choice. nk32 had 135 kn or so of dry thrust. A newly developed variant will harly have less and could have 20% more (20% being the improvement in dry thrust of 117 over al31f)

    But even if we’re talking about just 135 kn of thrust, that’s whopping 540 kn of dry thrust for pakda, IF it uses four engines. For a subsonic flying wing that’s way, way too much. Unless we’re talking about a 300 ton (mtow) bomber, larger than anything else in history. It becomes even bigger if new engine variant has more thrust than old nk32.

    Which is why i see it plausible that pak-da will in fact be a twin engine bomber. two modernized nk32 with 20% more dry thrust would give some 320 kn, roughly on par with b2, which for a subsonic flying wing configuration is plenty. That’d allow for a 180ish ton (mtow) bomber of b2-like perfomance. It also sounds about right for what Ruaf might want to replace their existing bombers.

    in reply to: Korea's KF-X: News & Discussion #2237798
    totoro
    Participant

    Intakes are different as well. Plus the initial generation won’t have weapon bays, which guarantees different layount, probably a visibly slimmer plane. Then we’re bound to see a quite redesigned plane for the next step with the internal weapon bays, but who knows when that will come, probably post 2030.

    in reply to: J-20 Black Eagle – Part 6 #2285732
    totoro
    Participant

    would it make sense to go through that effort without exhaust also featuring ir signature supression? or does the shiny coat suggest the exhaust signature will also be supressed?

Viewing 15 posts - 256 through 270 (of 934 total)