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hopsalot

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  • in reply to: Your Favorite Hornet/Super Hornet pics. #2264856
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Agreed but so is the MiG-29M/K/35

    True, but I also see those as sitting in something of a grey area (along with the latest Strike Eagles) given that while they are essentially new airframes they are a drop-in replacement/upgrade to a previous type and all retain some of their predecessor’s parts/avionics. The Super Hornet is not an updated Hornet, it is an entirely new aircraft that once shared some avionics and now shares essentially nothing with the original Hornet.

    You are forgetting high speed cruise and super-agility. EF or Typhoon easily meet the criteria regd. avionics, sensor fusion, agility and arguably even cruise capability. The F-35, OTOH, meets critera for LO/VLO and avionics/sensor fusion.

    By all means the F-35 is hardly more 5th Gen than Typhoon. If we were very precise, only F-22, T-50 and J-20 would meet criteria for a real 5th gen fighter, AFAIK..

    Hardly given the EF can cruise at M1.3+ with reasonable A-A load while SHornet at some M0.8 (if, at all.). BTW, I would hesitate to tell that the stealthy pods are more VLO than semi-recessed AIM-120s or Meteors on the EF, if we already talk about it.

    You actually argued the opposite of what I think you were trying to. Super cruise is present in some 4th and 5th generation aircraft, and is thus not a good distinguishing characteristic, and you are correct, the same could be claimed of advanced avionics and sensor fusion. Stealth is the primary distinguishing mark of a 5th generation fighter, but I think advanced avionics and sensor fusion is still a necessary feature. (If there were a stealthy aircraft without advanced avionics and sensor fusion what would one call it? 5–? )

    Your responses do nothing but try to push everything US made a category higher and everything foreign-made a category lower than they actually belong to.

    Not at all. I placed the various Eurocanards in the same category as the aircraft the compete with. I would put the J-20 and PAK FA in the 5th generation column with the F-22 and F-35.

    in reply to: Your Favorite Hornet/Super Hornet pics. #2264867
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Alright, I’ll humour you – browsing through the f-16.net operator database I come up with ~260 Falcon export orders that you could conceivably think of as having been up for grabs by the Eurocanards as well. Criteria: ordered AFTER 2000 (you can’t really consider the Eurocanards as having genuinely been in the market before then – notable exception being the UAE order, as they did not require off-the-shelf airframes), NOT a repeat order (these are generally not open to any competitor – notable exception being the latest Greek order, as it can be thought of as a replacement for the canceled Typhoon purchase) and NOT second-hand transfer (again, not something where the Eurocanards would even be in the running).

    Still not “outselling several times over”, with all the good will in the world. In fact, the export score is remarkably close to the picture you get from the production totals.

    First off speaking in strict factual terms, the F-16 most certainly has out exported the Eurocanards several times over since 2000. The F-16’s total export production since 2000 is well over 400 airframes. (Just working from a rough count from F-16.net.)

    If you want to start slicing and dicing things you can’t just compare all Eurocanard export production against only F-16 production that was the result of a competitive win against a Eurocanard. If you want to play it that way you would have to only count cases where a Eurocanard beat an F-16. (Since in some cases the F-16 was not even in competition.)

    A history of Eurocanard vs Teen-series competitions (in no particular order):

    F-15/16 wins:

    Chile:
    F-16 versus Gripen and Mirage 2000. Winner F-16. http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/chile-asks-for-gripen-data-11980/
    http://www.armscontrol.org/node/2885
    Greece: F-16 versus Eurofighter. Winner F-16. http://www.f-16.net/news_article1255.html
    Poland: F-16 versus Mirage 2000 and Gripen. Winner: F-16. http://www.armscontrol.org/node/3285
    Morocco: F-16 versus Rafale. Winner F-16. http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/lockheed-receives-f-16-contract-for-morocco-336593/
    UAE: F-16 versus F-15 and Rafale. Winner F-16. (with a further order in competition now with Rafale and Eurofighter) http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/f-16-and-rafale-in-dog-fight-for-uae-strike-force-order-2742/
    Singapore: F-15 versus Eurofighter and Rafale. Winner F-15. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/fr/1478961/posts
    Korea: F-15 versus Eurofigher and Rafale. Winner F-15. http://www.armscontrol.org/node/2971

    Essentially a tie:

    Oman: Ordered Eurofighters along with a F-16 order in the same time frame.
    Saudi Arabia: Ordered Eurofighters along with a F-15 order in the same time frame.

    Eurocanard wins:

    Austria: F-16 versus Eurofighter and Rafale. Winner Eurofighter. *Bribery http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/new-allegations-haunt-eads-fighter-jet-deal-a-873194.html
    Thailand: Gripen against ??. Winner Gripen though I am not sure any teen series ever competed.
    South Africa: Gripen against ??. Winner Gripen though I don’t think any teen series ever competed.
    Czech and Hungary: Leases.

    Pending orders:

    Switzerland: Gripen versus Rafale and Eurofighter. Winner Gripen though not against an F-teen. *No order placed to date.
    India: Rafale versus F-16, F-18, Eurofighter, Gripen, Mig-35. Winner Rafale. *No order placed to date.

    in reply to: Your Favorite Hornet/Super Hornet pics. #2264902
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Super Hornet is a warmed over design from the 70s, just like MiG-35 and Su-35 are, and as H-6K is a warmed over design from the 50s.

    Ah, so I guess you are still unaware that the Super Hornet is an entirely new airframe. :rolleyes:

    Fighters that organically belong to the next generation after the teen series and Fulcrum/Flanker can all be distinguished by their delta-canard configuration: Gripen, Rafale, Typhoon, Lavi, J-10, MiG MFI.

    Here you are wrong again. The F-15,16,18 and Super Hornet are all 4th generation aircraft, as are the Eurocanards, Mig-29, Su-27, etc.

    The generation after 4th generation is 5th generation, which is characterized principally by airframes with a heavy emphasis on stealth, internal weapons carriage, a new generation of avionics and sensor fusion.

    The closest thing to a bridge from the 4th generation to the 5th generation is the Super Hornet since it is now flying with a stealthy conformal weapons pod. The Rafale may eventually follow this approach as well.

    It’s hardly surprising that Super Hornet and F-16 (and MiG-35) went down hard the moment a customer decided to place performance characteristics ahead of political or value-for-money considerations. They’re just fundamentally older platforms.

    Again, a belief clearly reached without any examination of the available evidence. The world export market since the introduction of the Eurocanards has been dominated by the F-15, F-16, Su-27/30 and Mig-29 with the F-15 and F-16 in particular having won several notable head-to-head competitions against Eurocanard designs. (Competitions that actually resulted in orders being placed I might add, which is more than can be said of the Indian competition to date…)

    I suggest you take some time to read the various threads on this forum and generally educate yourself before interjecting yourself into topics you don’t yet understand.

    in reply to: USAF facing a capability cliff by 2030? #2264908
    hopsalot
    Participant

    In a net-centric approach, you may not need to turn the radar on to try to get targetting on the Incoming drones..E-2D’s, UCLASS, or other targeting sensor platforms (other ships or aircraft)….For Short ranged defences, you can probably pick up the smallest drones passively, in fact the goal should be to automatically pick them up, track them, prioritize them for destruction (using DEW)…Then there is space based ISR as well, to know where the drones can take off from, and to follow that is also important….A swarming attack on an AEGIS backed Carrier group is something the USN takes very seriously and its planning to have robust capability to deal with that. Nothing is going to be 100%, all you can do is to bring down the risk, to acceptable levels…Your asymmetrical response, and the ability to so would ultimately determine what ” REAL/ACTUAL” A2AD forces your opponent can bring to bear.

    Just one example of where things are going:

    JLENS

    http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/asd_07_26_2013_p04-01-600947.xml

    AMRAAM Integrated with JLENS Sensor System Intercepts Anti-Ship Cruise Missile Surrogate

    http://www.azosensors.com/news.aspx?newsID=6386

    in reply to: USAF facing a capability cliff by 2030? #2264913
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Can anyone guess what aircraft I would like to sell to the US to makeup for its financial position cum milavia cliff?

    Does anyone care?

    in reply to: Your Favorite Hornet/Super Hornet pics. #2264922
    hopsalot
    Participant

    And the H-6K first flew in 2007, what’s your point?

    You claimed that the Super Hornet was an older design than the Rafale or Eurofighter. I pointed out that you were wrong and that they are roughly the same age.

    Now I guess you want to talk about Chinese bombers. Perhaps there is a thread for that?

    in reply to: Your Favorite Hornet/Super Hornet pics. #2265005
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Agreed. As the youngest of the 4th generation fighters (coming almost 10 years after the F-14), the vanilla Hornet was half-way to a 4.5 generation design already in many respects, and the SH did add a considerable amount of airframe re-design.

    Er… no. F-16 production since 2000: about 570. Combined Typhoon/Rafale production: about 470. So the Falcon did outsell them, but certainly not “several times over” and it had an established market presence and is smaller and cheaper to buy. Add Gripen and the gap might just disappear altogether.

    I’m too lazy to research F-16 export contracts since 2000 (preferably excluding repeat orders without open competition), but for what it’s worth the Eurocanards (excluding Gripen) have won a total of some 220 orders over this period.

    Yes, let’s.

    We are talking in terms of exports, read the post I am responding to.

    in reply to: Your Favorite Hornet/Super Hornet pics. #2265036
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Comparing F-16 Block 50/52+ or F-18E/F to Rafale/Typhoon is like comparing an upgraded F-4 Phantom with F-15E. Of course they lost — they’re fundamentally older and inferior platforms. Take politics out of the game and the older jets (incl. MiG-35) don’t stand a chance.

    Troll much?

    As you should well know by now the Super Hornet is a contemporary to the Rafale and Typhoon with its first flight in late 1995.

    The F-16 meanwhile has continued to dominate the world export market and has outsold the Eurofighter and Rafale combined several times over since they arrived on the market.

    Lets try to keep it factual in the future.

    in reply to: Your Favorite Hornet/Super Hornet pics. #2265290
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Hopsalot, i do not used to kid you. Check what i said, then talk.

    Oh I read what you said just fine. :rolleyes:

    in reply to: Your Favorite Hornet/Super Hornet pics. #2265301
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Look, i’m found of F18. Re read what you quoted, IAF had nothing to do with offsets. Talked with USS Eisenhower pilot recently. “Rafale is the first plane designed by pilots for pilots”.

    Sure, and I spoke with a couple Rafale pilots the other day and they both agreed that the whole program was a big mistake and that France should have gone with the Super Hornet.

    Seriously, first plane designed by pilots for pilots?:very_drunk:

    in reply to: F-35 News & Multimedia thread #2267995
    hopsalot
    Participant

    The way in which the options are being laid out, its quite clear that the Pentagon is kind of forcing Congress to act in a certain way, a way which they prefer. No one is going to cancel 2 out of the 3 programs that the USAF Secretary has described as the service’s top priorities (LRS_B, F-35 and the Tanker Program)…. So kind of laying out such options by the pentagon, in a “LEAKED” report, is kind of amusing..Who’s gonna take this “Threat”(F-35 being cancelled) seriously when the Pentagon concluded a multi batch purchase of 71 fighters :), just a few days ago.

    Indeed, these leaks are not serious proposals, they are designed to force Congress to take action.

    Hypothetically if the F-35 were cancelled the USAF would immediately have to turn around and start life extensions and ordering hundreds of new build upgraded F-15s and F-16s at great expense. It would probably be marginally cheaper than buying F-35s, but at the cost of saddling the USAF with new-build jets that would be nearing obsolescence by the time they rolled off the assembly line. The Navy would be in better shape as they could simply continue buying Super Hornets… but of course they would have far fewer carriers to worry about equipping if this scenario played out.

    The tanker program offers even fewer options. The current tankers are exhausted and simply can not fly forever. If the tanker program is cancelled the Pentagon will simply have to do without. No other option could fill the need at lower cost.

    The NGB would be the easiest to kill in the short term. The current fleet of bombers could continue to serve but this would derail much of the Pentagon’s Pacific strategy which is reliant on the NGB. The NGB program is also fairly early in its development and hasn’t reached the really expensive part of the program. Killing it now likely wouldn’t yield large near-term savings.

    in reply to: F-35 News & Multimedia thread #2268221
    hopsalot
    Participant

    That clears that up then, though it is strange that South Korea are going for two 5th Generation fighters instead of just one indigenous fighter. What South Korean fighters are up for replacement? Phantom? F-16?

    Any potential S Korean 5th generation fighter is at least ten years out, likely 15+, and they haven’t even decided whether they are going to fund the thing.

    in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2268285
    hopsalot
    Participant

    This isn’t any different from what the plan has been for the last several years.
    They explicitly state that total procurement numbers are not being reduced, and development of block upgrades continues to plan.

    They announced they were reducing the total procurement numbers earlier this year.

    Even that will be in question unless export orders materialize. You simply can’t sustain a production line producing an average of 4 fighters a year. The costs would be astronomical. Don’t forget this isn’t just about the airframes, it is about everything else the Rafale requires. Four radars a year, ~8 engines a year, etc.

    You can only scale production up and down so much.

    in reply to: F-35 News & Multimedia thread #2268287
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Senate Panel Reduces Funding for F-35 Program

    The Senate Appropriations Committee has reduced long-lead funding for the F-35 program, judging that it is premature to increase the production rate before the program’s many problems are resolved.

    The committee also told the Pentagon to review whether the Air Force’s stated goal of buying 1,763 F-35A fighters remains feasible. “Given these times of fiscal austerity,” the Pentagon “should review the Air Force tactical fighter force mix,” the defense appropriations subcommittee stated in its report.

    These two developments are clear signs that legislators are becoming very concerned about the F-35 program’s fiscal and technical non-performance, and with the Pentagon’s management.

    http://www.defense-aerospace.com/article-view/release/146998/senate-panel-cuts-funding-for-f_35-program.html

    (1) A further indication of the fragility of the USAF goal of 1,763 F-35A
    (2) Sensible move to delay production ramp up to lower risk but it would presumably push F-35 price reduction further to the right

    This is worth following, but it is a long way from a final decision. The Senate Appropriations Committee is just one part of the process.

    in reply to: Dassault Rafale, News & Discussion (XV) #2268319
    hopsalot
    Participant

    Dassault Aviation, which builds the Rafale fighters, used to high-profile effect in fighting in Libya and Mali, was to supply 11 planes a year to the French defense forces.

    This was intended to ensure an essential minimum amount of work for production lines while France tries to achieve the first sales of the aircraft abroad.

    But the government, which is struggling to meet commitments to the European Union and to retain investor confidence by getting its public deficit under control, is crimping public expenditures, including defense spending.

    Under the draft defense estimates put before the cabinet Friday, the left-wing government will acquire only 26 of the planes during the next six years.

    Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said June 11 that from 2016, Dassault Aviation would have to count on exports to underpin production of the plane, which is able to fulfil several types of missions.

    http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130802/DEFREG01/308020007/France-Cut-Rafale-Order-Betting-Exports

    26 aircraft over 6 years? How are these distributed? 4 per year? Or are they front loaded? (11 next year, 11 the year after that, then essentially nothing)

    In either case do I really have to ask what happens if a substantial export order doesn’t come? …and if you were a potential customer would you want to buy into a program knowing what a low priority it is for its domestic government? What does that say about its long-term support?

Viewing 15 posts - 2,221 through 2,235 (of 2,738 total)