On another hand, France + Brazil IS a viable long term solution on the fighter business and it’s obvious. Next fighter generation would be designed in common – and more and more in common.
Actually I disagree… Look at the 4-country Eurofighter…
I believe the Gripen model is much more viable — I often compare it to the PC, whereas Rafale will be more like a Mac — a closed architecture.
Gripen OTOH is based on an architecture which is more open and flexible — one works with companies in different countries and integrate into a system. Currently the only major US component is the engine — if this turns out to be a big issue it can quite easily be replaced with e.g. the Eurojet. If the link to Selex and UK is found to be non-acceptable one can turn to other companies, including Thales, Elint, etc, for the next fighter.
The 2-3-4 country collaborations have not shown to be working very well in the past IMHO, and it will be even more of an issue in the future. A more open and flexible system is being called for.
Major work ahead on T-50 stealth fighter:
By David A Fulghum, Maxim Pyadushkin and Douglas Barrie
with Bill Sweetman and Graham Warwick in WashingtonMonday, February 08, 2010: Russia has begun flying a stealthy fifth-generation fighter to rival the U.S. F-22, but Western analysts question whether Sukhoi can develop and deliver the aircraft by 2015 as promised.
Could it be that Russia is planning a much more step-wise approach than what the Americans are doing?
Perhaps they will first launch a “4.75 gen” Pak Fa in 2015 which has e.g. the IRST ball and some other features not normally associated with a true 5. gen a/c. It may be possible however to later upgrade these to a much higher level of stealth later on, since, unlike a traditional 4.5 gen fighter the basic shaping is already there, and since the internal storage is already there…
I have suggested a similar approach for F-35. Who needs a 5. gen fighter today anyway? Even a “4.75 gen” Pak FA could probably wipe the floor with most if not all 4.5 gen fighters out there.
With this approach they could actually meet the 2015 deadline — just insert the avionics developed for SU-35, add some more RAM coating here and there, and off you go…
If this is the plan then it could explain the IRST ball and some of the other “non-stealthy” stuff people have commented on. Of course the Russians are not stupid, they know that they have a long way to go. And perhaps they have found a way to do it without waiting 15 years to have the first a/c operational..
/factsheet.asp?id=199[/url]
The Swedes may differ about that, but all the intrested ones get the related data with ease. Even the basic Gripen got “fatter” over some years in service to keep the specifications.
http://www.air-attack.com/page/49/JAS-39-Gripen.html
When JANES give a more detailed empty equipped of 6622 kg received ~1990.
Later confirmed by that:
http://www.airramstein.nato.int/bast_e3_factsheet_saab_jas39.pdf
Yes, but my point was that these figures on Gripen may or may not be correct — and as I said somebody working on Gripen at one occation acknowledged that the “real weight” of the Gripen was not published. So instead of just writing “classified” they just publish a number, which does not reflect reality.
Range was also a secret at least for the Gripen A, as was the maximum fuel load…. Still you could find numbers. So how could it still be a secret? The numbers published were misleading. Those sneaky Swedes… I’m sure the Americans would not do the same…?
Empty equipped weight is not classified, because it does not give away in detail, what item is contributing what to the total. Not even what is installed by that.
Then why did the Swedes keep the weight of Gripen classified? The numbers reported did never “add up”.
Perhaps US and Sweden simply have different rules?
We never needed nuclear weapons in the past to suffer US embargoes. I think the Government simply believes we can have more space to maneuver with France than with U.S. Restrictions from U.S. were always heavy in the past, even if we never had an anti-US gov like Venezuela has now in example. Even if Obama looks like more friendly now, the trend indicates he will not be on top for more than 4 years. Someone from the Bush gang take over and it’s game over.
What embargoes have you suffered in the past?
Should we not also keep the following as a possible explanation:
The F-35 is a military piece of hardware. Exact details of such equipment are often classified. The real weight of the F-35 may be classified.
So perhaps we should not put too much emphasis on the numbers that LM publishes? They may be all wrong!
I know for a “fact” that the empty weight of Gripen A/B/C/D is not reported correctly. I have seen this implicitly acknowledged by people actually working with it….
So for the naysayers they can claim that perhaps the weight is even higher than what LM says?
The F-35 fanboys can go in the other direction and claim that the real weight is actually much lower than published 🙂
All this talk about “supporting a seat at the security council” is just a smoke-screen, IMHO… It simply does not make sense. This however:
and:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/brazil/nuke.htm
During his winning campaign in January 2003, leftist Workers’ Party presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva criticized the 1970 Non-Proliferation Treaty as unfair. “If someone asks me to disarm and keep a slingshot while he comes at me with a cannon, what good does that do?” da Silva asked in a speech. He later said Brazil has no intention to develop nuclear arms.
My guess is that there are strong forces in Brazil that wants to obtain nuclear weapons. This would probably trigger embargo from the US, just like it did with India. Thus Lula would like to avoid military equipment with US components at all costs, and become as independent as possible.
Even if Lula and his friends have such plans, there is election time soon and future presidents may or may not support such plans? So: Brazil may or may not obtain nukes, but I believe that Lula is making preparations for such an event…
On verra.
Perhaps because the Rafale will get several nice and shinny upgrades too in a close future.
Both will have shiny upgrades — so how can you tell which one will be “better”? You need quite a lot of info on both programs to try to predict even the near future of the capabilities for each a/c.
If the latest reports are to be believed, the FAB have looked at the details of what will be offered and concluded that Gripen NG was best not just economically but also technically.
Of course, with all the misinformation coming out it could be that this is also incorrect. I don’t know. However I would not dismiss the notion that Gripen NG could score higher on “technical parameters” in the FAB report. At the same time I would not dismiss the possibility that the latest reports are false and that Rafale scored higher on “technical parameters”.
I guess Rafale fanboys will automatically claim that the latest reports are false whereas Gripen fanboys will insist that they are not false 🙂
Perhaps we will learn some day who was right, but probably not in the near future.
Anyway, it will be interesting to see — will Lula stick to his original choice, or will he give in to the pressure from FAB, industry and the opposition?
The Gripen is able to pull 12G.
Robban,
I think I’ve seen somewhere that NG should be strengthened and able to handle 13-14G? Although I don’t know why anybody would want to go so high (unless you want to build a Sea Gripen perhaps :))
I will try to find the reference…
What are the turn rates of the two birds? Any estimates for the Gripen NG?
we can always think of such a possibility, but what’s the point of going all the way to do so? If it’s just about F-22 training and calibrating its sensors, they can do so in the US.. and what interest would it have for the french to go tehre and just play targets? especially with their latest fighter which they have so much difficulty to sell.. do you think that a sticker on its rear saying “F-22s most coooperative target” would make it sell better? I doubt it… 😀
Perhaps they were training for possible future operation in the ME. Perhaps part of this was also to demonstrate to some country in the region that is alleged to be developing nuclear weapons that there are some plans for military action and those plans are credible as demonstrated by several exercises of which this one is probably just one minor one…
It demonstrated how easy it was to fly F-22s to the ME and get them operational. And it also demonstrated that whatever planes that “other” country is having, F-22 will have no issues whatsoever (if anybody doubted that). It also says “we and our allies are ready for action”.
Just my speculation of course….
Edit: Snafu sorry did not see your posting…
You are right, I can’t find anything meaningfull in SAAB promise of 22,000 of jobs…
It is not just “Saab”; this is all the backers of Saab, including the Swedish State and Investor AB.
Investor AB:
Core
Investor held shares in the following companies as of 31 December 2008:[1]ABB – power and automation technology (7.3% stake, 7.3% voting rights)
Atlas Copco – industrial tooling and equipment (16.6% stake, 22.3% voting rights)
Astra Zeneca – pharmaceuticals (3.6% stake, 3.6% voting rights)
Electrolux – consumer appliances (12.7% stake, 28.8% voting rights)
Ericsson – telecommunications (5.1% stake, 19.4% voting rights)
Husqvarna – auto, chainsaw and sewing machine manufacturer (15.4% stake, 28.8% voting rights)
Saab – aviation and military technology (19.8% stake, 38% voting rights)
SEB – banking (20.7% stake, 21.1% voting rights)
[edit] Operating investments
Investor’s other investments include:3 Scandinavia – (3rd Generation Mobile phone services). (40% stake)
Biovitrum – Biovitrum is a Stockholm based specialty biopharma company.
CaridianBCT – developing and commercializing technology that serves customers in the blood banking and transfusion medicine industries.
Gambro – medical technology. (49% stake)
Mölnlycke Health Care – medical technology
IBX – provider of efficient purchasing solutions and services
Novare Human Capital – recruitment firm
Grand Hôtel, Stockholm – five star hotel
Lindorff – a credit management company in the Nordic region with a growing European presence.[2]
Investor Growth Capital – venture capital firm, exceeds $1 billion in venture capital.
EQT Partners – private equity firm, €11 billion in equity capital (31% stake)
Source: Wiki.
22,000 jobs is not that much for Investor AB. And Industrial offsets can be many things, it does not have to be work on the airplane itself. For instance if Ericsson chooses a Brazilian vendor for, say, it’s new line of mobile phones instead of Chinese or Korean, that could be counted as part of the offsets.
The Swedes are very good at offsets, they have an excellent track record.
I am a bit surprised that the French don’t do better on offsets; their economy is certainly large enough. Perhaps because they simply decided it’s not worth the effort (and yes it is a big effort); instead they go for the political angle.
Offsets require collaboration with a lot of different partners…. which can be tricky, and probably easier in a small homogenous country 🙂
Except that the rafale AESA is almost ready, making France the second country after US that did this, while Selex thing is not even a prototype.
Perhaps. Or perhaps not…
And NG avionics comprises…On a more serious note, that’s one single advantage of Gripen: the ability to incorporate many weapons (not only IrisT, but also Sidewinder, Phyton, Derby, JDAM) while the Rafales are somehow limmited to French weapons, or weapons with Frech participation (Meteor)
Highly unlikely.Spectra could do the jo without towed decoys and french industry can do them, if necessary. As for HMD none of the two fighters has a functional one in this moment.
Fields in which Rafale best Geipen
Did you read the RFP? I doubt that any buyer wouldn’t insist in a larger payload. Not only for weapons, but for range. Except for a few fighters (Su family and in future F 35) the rest need EFTs. Rafale can carry 4 big ones.
Saab and Selex have been working on AESA for many years, a prototype has been installed in the Gripen Demo, already flying.
How on earth do you know that the Thales AESA will be better than the Saab/Selex? I am not saying that I know that it will be better; I am just saying that it well may be. I do not know for sure of course. And the same goes for the other avionics pieces being developed.
Saab has two big advantages compared to Thales/Dassault:
Saab is (together with it’s partners) developing brand new stuff right now, which means that they can incorporate the latest in electronics. Even if you spent a fortune buying a super-PC 5 years ago, that does not help; today you can buy a more powerful PC at a much lower price!
The other advantage is that Saab can collaborate with others; for each component be it EWS, AESA, IRST, composites, etc, etc it can pick the best and/or cheapest partner. Dassault needs to stick with French partners which has a political advantage in this case, but will also increase costs.
These two advantages should give Gripen an edge. gripen is much smaller but with the reduction in size of electronics that may not be such an issue.
For payload: It may not be as important as you seem to think. Range: Gripen NG will have an excellent range, more than most other fighters out there…
And as you know the AESA will have one advantage: Much bigger scan volume, and since the angulation can also be optimized, also probably longer range.
Note: I am not saying Rafale is a poor fighter, on the contrary I think that the F3 may be the best 4.5 gen fighter flying today; I am just saying that the NG may well be better than Rafale in many areas if/when NG flies in 3-4 years.
Of course a future F4+ or F5 Rafale may become better than Gripen NG again…
For RCS: why do you think Rafale has significantly lower RCS than Gripen NG will have?
Perhaps the F-22 was training on meeting an e.g. Russian fighter that does not have OSF, but does have a radar? And perhaps the Rafale’s were emulating such a situation by turning OSF off and radars on?
Perhaps it was the F-22 pilot that was trained and not the Rafale? Why would France train on killing US planes? You do know that only the US has F-22 and it will never be exported?
So if Rafale engages with F-22 it means that either 1) France and US is at war or 2) Rafale will be sold to a country that will be at war with the US.
How likely is that? And even in the case of 2) why on earth would the US let France train against F-22? To increase Rafales sales prospects to Iran? :rolleyes:
I do not know what happened in this training; my point is that in DACT they are not necessarily training they way you want (or expect) them to train…
The other point is that I think that unless one knows all the details of the DACT it is impossible to draw any conclusions about performance of the fighters. And even if you know all the details it may still not be possible to draw much relevant conclusions, depending on what the rules were and the outcome etc.
And yes, I think this holds true for all DACT, not just this one. So when the Typhoon fanboys says “look we killed all the F-15” I am thinking… such “evidence” should be ignored when it comes to assessing capabilities.
I think we will never get all the details.
OTOH this is a forum and it is fun to speculate of course 🙂
The winner, the Gripen NG was considered better in four requirements: technical, technology transfer, employment generation and price..
I could agree with three of the requirements but technical ?? Whats that mean??
RAFALE offers a combination of performances, capabilities and technologies in A2A ,A2G which is hardly matched by GRIPEN or SH or any other fighter in that category .. RAFALE’s capabilities are documented also by foreign experts ( Peter Collins RAF) .. Rafale can easily outmaneuver any version of GRIPEN and SH and by 2012 it will be carrying a superior AESA radar and soon after that ,the awesome METEOR .So whats left ??
Perhaps NG’s AESA will be more awesome that Rafale’s…
Perhaps the Saab/Selex IRST will also be more awesome than Rafale’s.
You cannot compare Gripen C/D avionics and say “Rafale is better” because the NG will have Ng avionics not C/D avionics.
NG will be able to carry both IRIS-T and Meteor (but Brazil may want to integrate something else…)
Perhaps the NG also will have a lower RCS and IR signature…?
And what about towed decoys and HMD?
So what is left? Rafale wins in TWR, and have a slight edge in maneouvribility. But those factors seems to be consider less important these days — it’s all about avionics, sensor fusion, SA, EWS, RCS and IR signature…
The other thing is of course payload — but as said before if FAB does not see the need for such huge payloads, it does not help the Rafale…
So yes, it may fully be possible for Gripen NG to “beat” Rafale also on the technical assessment — depending on what requirements FAB consider more important, and of course depending on what kind of technology Saab and it’s collaborators like Selex etc. are actually developing right now… Problem is, we don’t know much about it, so how can you say that Rafale will be better?
Do I need to remind you that Rafale lost against Greek F-16? When I raised this I was told “but that was an old version of the Rafale”. Point is, the current Gripen is “a very old version” of Gripen and not relevant. So I ask again how can you say that Rafale will be better than a future Gripen NGapart from the TWR, payload, and a few other things?