LokeIn a recent Finnish survey The People of Finland preferred the following:
Gripen: 21%
SH: 15%
Typhoon: 11%
F-35: 8%
Rafale: 2%
However the big winner was the fighter called “I don’t know” who got 39% of the votes… 🙂
(Looking at the other figures above probably more of the respondents should have answered “I don’t know” because, clearly, they don’t.)
http://www.is.fi/taloussanomat/art-2000005124870.html?ref=rss
LokeFAF possibly need few jets to borderpatrol the airspace. Maybe even few missiles for them. No More than 10-20 aircraft. Super rich Norway only has 40 jets.
Super rich Norway will have 52 F-35; however 4 are for training only so 48 jets for all other activities.
LokeIf that is what it would take then there is no point in even trying.
The UAE is paying $1.27 billion for two Globaleye aircraft. 4-5 would be the minimum necessary to maintain 24×7 coverage for any reasonable length of time. These aircraft would also require crews, maintenance, training… and of course functional airfields to operate from. (no road strips with these…) It also wouldn’t be much fun trying to operate one of these within the range of Russian SAMs…which they would be the moment they rose above the horizon.
No “Growler” variant of the Gripen exists. Developing an all-new bespoke EW version of the Gripen wouldn’t be cheap… and that assumes the Gripen has the payload capacity in the first place. (Take a look at how heavily loaded Growlers are…) Of course the problem with the Russian SAMs would also exist.
The alternate airbases part would be handy, but that assumes you are willing to bet your everything on the Swedes not getting cold feet in the midst of a crisis. (and even with Sweden that wouldn’t provide that much additional depth)
An all new stealth UCAV… $ billions.
I agree it is not a very likely scenario however it’s fun to speculate.
I mentioned the Globaleye, perhaps EriEye ER without all the other bells&wistles would be more appropriate (and affordable!). Keep in mind Sweden already operates Erieye and spends significant money on this, without getting much out of it (IMHO) since the Erieye numbers have been cut, and also they are getting old and should be upgraded. Sharing costs and the resources with Finland would be extremely useful for Sweden since they would be able to rebuild this capability at a much lower cost.
It is true that no “growler” variant of Gripen exist — however Brazil is developing a missile for the SEAD role, so unless they plan to purchase a separate plane for this role they may be open to codevelop this further. As for weight — it would be a “growler lite”; second, it would use GaN modules that Saab already master; I am no expert but I believe the GaN offer quite good performance at much reduced power requirements?
I think the airbasing could be significant; and again that would also be a two-way agreement, meaning that in times of crisis Sweden would get access to the Finnish air bases as well.
Russian military has been rebuilt however it still has some limitations. After previous wars with Finland I think Russia is aware that one should not undersestimate the Finnish selve defence forces. If they want to be “successful” a rapid surprise attack would be the way to go. Knocking out one airbase with 18-20 F-35 seems much simpler than knocking out 5-6 airbases with 100 Gripen, spread over a large area.
True that Sweden offer limited extra depth; OTOH Russia has at the end of the day in some respects limited capabilites (compared to major Western countries) thus the extra depth would, I believe, still make the planning of such an operation much more challenging for the Russians.
LokeYes, but I imagine all of those 4 points would already be on the table. I think it will take more.
I agree it will take more — however I am not sure all the 4 points I mentioned are already on the table!? Has there been any reports indicating this?
LokeI wouldn’t be surprised if these weren’t Israeli version F-35’s but USAF F-35A’s with a Star of David sticker. USAF F-35A’s have been combat ready for a year now with block 3i version. Are the two Dutch and Italian F-35’s combat able?
Why would they not use their own F-35?
LokeOne of the thing I have been thinking of is shipbuilding. Finland is really great at it and there is a really nice looking project for new corvettes (and I don’t mean that the ship is good looking, I mean that it looks like one of the most capable corvette designs out there, depending on the choice of SAM’s and ASW sensors).
The Swedish Navy is in a desperate need for more ships. They are now extending the life of rather incapable ships constructed in the 80s and early 90s to work into the 2030’s. They just don’t need replacements for them they also need additional plattforms. This have been known for a long time without the politicians acting and allocating funds for it. (Sure your already aware of this).
Offering to buy 4-6 ships from Finland as an offset to a Gripen deal would be the perfect advantage that Gripen needs. I can’t believe it still hasn’t been floated by the defense group in the parliament (but I’m hoping it have been discussed in secret). Sure I would love to see brad new swedish developed stealth ships with proper armament, but what we need now is a ship that actually works from the start and not 20 years later. It would be a win-win opportunity IMO.
Ship in question: https://corporalfrisk.com/2016/10/22/further-developments-of-squadron-2020/
Sure that would address the industrial offset thing, however it does not address capabilities issues.
The F-35 will offer capabilities that no 4.5 fighter can offer; to me the premier 4.5 gen fighter is the Rafale, and even the Rafale is far below the F-35 in some capabilities. As shown by the Swiss eval the Gripen is behind the Rafale… To address those concerns Sweden would IMHO need to offer:
* Globaleye for improved SA
* A “Growler” variant of the Gripen, to address the SEAD need
* Alternative airbases in Sweden that fully supports Gripen/GlobalEye to increase strategic depth
* Medium-long term: stealth UCAVs (based on the Neuron) to compensate for lack of stealth in the Gripen
Without these elements I don’t see how Gripen can successfully compete with the F-35. As mentioned above the achilles heel of F-35 IMHO will be the limited number of bases (probably just 1) but even so the lure of the huge technological advantages of the F-35 compared to the Gripen means that the Finnish Air Force will make huge efforts (and big consessions) to get the F-35.
Looking at purely technical parameters, the case for the F-35 is going to be incredibly strong. Just a small number of F-35 will be able to substitute a much bigger package of 4.5 gen fighters that may need to be supported by AEW and dedicated “Growler” type of a/c to address high-end threath, and in the medium/long-term future even stealth UCAV. So IMHO Sweden must offer such a package to Finland, if not it will be a non-starter.
LokeBut in the end I would still bet on the JSF. If the price keeps coming down over the next years it would be strange for it not to happen. The FiAF will definitely recommend it as the preferred fighter, then it’s all up to the politicians.
I agree, as stated previously I think Sweden would have to offer a very special “package” if they are to have a chance, with other components that can compensate for the gap in capabilities between Gripen NG and F-35; however if they offer a more extensive package it becomes more of a challenge to compete on cost, even if Sweden were to offer to share operating costs etc.
Sweden does have an advantage due to the geography; they could offer to jointly purchase and operate a small fleet of GlobalEye; they could also offer to have a common pool of spare parts and look at other synergies to reduce operating costs of their Gripen a/c (share training facilities etc).
Then there are also things like the potential option of operating from Swedish airbases with full technical support in times of crisis (If Sweden would allow such a thing).
One challenge with the F-35 in Finland is that it may become so expensive that they may be able to afford only one airbase. If there is a surprise attack on that single airbase, Finland could in worst case find themselves without an air force…. On the ground the F-35 is as vulnerable as any other fighter jet. The air base will of course be well protected, however not even the best SAM system in the world offer 100% protection — to my knowledge the system they have today is NASAMS which is quite good but is a short/medium-range system and should ideally either be upgraded or complimented with a long-range system to give a multi-layer protection.
I strongly doubt SH will be a competitor since the cost of the F-35 will probably be on the same level as the SH (or lower) by the time Finland is starting to buy.
How important is industrial offsets considered to be in this deal? I am guessing it is not on the top of the priority list, but I may be wrong.
LokeLast week, Czech and German fighters executed a joint training in the airspace of the Federal Republic of Germany. Two Czech Gripen fighters carried out aerial fights with two German Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft.
The agreement to conduct the joint training regime was signed on 15 February in Brussels by the Czech and German Defence Ministers, Martin Stropnicky and Ursula von der Leyen. “The document confirms our resolution to create more intensive joint training scenarios and, at the same time, share our knowledge and experiences. Germany is one of our key strategic partners both inside and outside the NATO region,” said Martin Stropnicky.
The exercise was carried out to increase mutual cooperation and improve inter-operability between the armed forces of the two countries.*
The one-and-half-hour training consisted of three combat scenarios. The flights were carried out within the format of aerial combat manoeuvring 2 on 1, 1 on 1, and 2 on 2 combats. The joint training is being conducted once in every two weeks.
LokeBoeing is taking Denmark to court over a lack of access to documents used in the government’s decision last year to buy Lockheed Martin’s (LMT.N) new F-35 Lightning II combat jets in preference to Boeing’s F/A 18 Super Hornets.
“Boeing has filed a lawsuit against the Ministry of Defence because the ministry has not responded to the request for access to the documents which are the foundation for the evaluation in the competition for the fighter jets,” Boeing said in statement.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-boeing-denmark-lawsuit-idUSKBN1691IV
One may speculate why B. bothers to go into this — it is not really likely that they will succeed in having F-35 partner Denmark change their decision!!!
My suggestion is that they simply try to obtain as much information as possible about the F-35 cost estimates in comparison to the SH cost estimates to help position the SH in other competitions where the probability of winning may be slightly higher than in Denmark (e.g. Finland). If they can undercut the F-35 on costs they may have a chance, however I really think it will be a very remote one as the F-35 is set to drop in price the next few years, before Finland makes her choice.
Another important country could be Canada; perhaps they can try to position the SH better in Canada on the basis of info gathered from the Danish competition. There is a great push from the Canadian Air Force to drop the SH interim solution and go straight for the F-35.
LokeGame The aircraft, which Norway receives the fall, dominated the world’s largest air combat exercise. – F-35 is a beast, tells Norwegian test pilot.
– What we see in exercises against other aircraft, is that the fight is very uneven and we have all the advantages. It is rare opponent at all getting fired shots before the fight is over.
– It is difficult to defend against something you do not see, he adds.
Google translated from: https://forsvaret.no/aktuelt/f-35-knuste-motstanden
F-35 is a beast, no doubt.
LokeI agree Rafale is now mature – Typhoon is from my perspective not a “mature” 4.5 gen fighter, it still lacks integrated AESA and a few other bits and pieces.
SH seems quite mature to me.
F-35 is not mature today however I will make rapid progress. The US and partners are throwing money at any remaining issues. By the time Finland is ready to introduce the new fighter, F-35 will be quite mature, I am pretty sure about that.
Gripen will be less mature — OTOH it is less of a leap from Gripen C to Gripen E than for the other fighters thus it should mature quite rapidly.
LokeMy take-away is that in spite of the problems with sensor fusion and other issues the F-35 is still superior in the testing done so far (recent Red Flag, etc.).
Imagine how the F-35 will be when all the major (and most of the minor) issues have been worked out — my guess is it will be even more superiour.
One thing to keep in mind is that this does not diminish the capabilities of advanced 4.5 gen fighters like the Rafale. Most of the missions that can be completed successfully by the F-35 can also be completed successfully by the Rafale. Some missions may require slightly different tactics of course.
LokeLook at the history of Finland. Sweden and Finland’s geopolitical opponents
Indeed, they are eternal foes.
Finland must seek protection from Sweden in a strategic alliance with their old friend and ally Russia, and cement this friendship by purchasing six PAK FA.
LokeDevelopments in Finland’s operating environment and the need to maintain a pre-emptive defence capability require that the Hornet fleet be replaced with multi-role fighters by the end of the 2020s.
IOC of Swedish Gripen E is planned for 2023 and FOC a few years later (2026?). A bit tight for Finland perhaps.
What do you mean by “only if relations stay good”? Are there any indications that relations can change?
LokePerhaps you are right FBW — OTOH they did also fund development of the F-16 block 60. Although that effort was much less significant at least they have some experience in funding fighter airplane development.
If the US refuse to sell them the F-35 then a Russian “5. gen” fighter may give them something that is closer to the F-35 than what they are flying now — it will take a long time to develop but compared to waiting for the F-35 for ever…
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