Mutual benefits. Neither Russia nor Turkey can achieve what they want in Syria without compomise. Same could be said for US-Turkey relationship as well.
And US and NATO in general doesn’t even try to find a common ground with Turkey. US and NATO -from Turkish perspective- openly betrayes Turkey in favour of one single pro-Kurd armed group, it opens up an opportunities for Russia-Turkish relations, and mutual benefits goes well beyond Syria…
If it all works well, Russia gets a powerful ally who controls the Russian transition to mediterranean and NATO transition to black sea, and can provide a quick ticket to whole middleeast if WW3 erupts someday.. Such alliance also rips NATO of some hundreds of combat aircraft, more than ten thousand armored vehicles, reducing the NATO’s conventional threat to Russia significantly.
Turkey may -on paper- appear to get a less powerful (than NATO) ally, but even the most recent history (read: last 3-4 years) shows Russia is an ally that is actually honorable and dependable… Russia won’t just stop selling tank engines or machine guns or helicopter transmission parts (like Austria, US and Italy does right now), because of some internal affairs of Turkey that is no one’s business. (Whereas Russia didn’t stop shipping BTR and Mi-17 spare parts despite political tension in Syria until Turkey actually shot down a Russian plane. Russia still proceeds with all levels of military cooperation despite being on politically opposite sides in Syria). Russia won’t hide behind some excuses like NATO if an ally is in dire need of assistance (as proven by Russia’s hard efforts to keep Assad in power)… If such alliance could be forged, I don’t think Russia would betray Turkey in totally irrelevant political matters like Aegean islands, Cyprus, Armenian Genocide among others like great majority of NATO countries do…
If all these good relations break up at a certain point, Russia will still make some good money. If my memory serves me right, even China will get 6 S-400 systems, Turkey hopes to get 12, twice the number.. ~6 billion $ is a good money for Russia, funding the procurement of some 40+ PAK-FAs by itself… Also, its not like S-400 will automatically get useless the second NATO get its hands upon.. all the details regarding S-300 was known to NATO, just like all the details of F-15 was exactly known to Soviets in 1980s… Espionage works even better today, same surely holds true for S-400 and F-22; there is probably nothing west doesn’t already know about S-400’s specifications. Also, Russia will be knowing the exact capabilities of Turkish ADGM network, and the fact S-400 will not be fully integrated to NATO systems still weakens the NATO in a way… Turkey, in return, will still get an ADGM system it can’t produce by its own and doesn’t given by anyone else… That is quite beneficial for both sides.
Wrong — you equate Erdogan and his cronies with Turkey. Many Turkish will disagree with this.
Wrong — US and NATO do try to find commond ground with Erdogan — actually one could make the opposite statement, that Erdogan does not try to find common ground with the US and NATO… flirting with both China and Russia, and refuse to accept the viewpoints of US and Western NATO countries.
Anyhow, unless Erdogan changes his tune I predict there will be a “proper” coup in Turkey soon — and not driven by the hapless Gulen movement but rather another and much stronger and better organized force within the Turkish society. I also predict that the US and other NATO countries will stay well out of the mess (just in case) but that they will quickly work to “normalize” the relationship with the new rulers in Turkey.
Unless of course Erdogan changes his tune. I think they will give him one last chance to improve himself and get back on track…
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