dark light

Loke

Forum Replies Created

Viewing 15 posts - 481 through 495 (of 3,001 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • in reply to: Canadian Fighter Replacement #2141712
    Loke
    Participant

    If a large country like Canada should consider a fighter like Gripen (purely hypothetical in the case of Canada) then the solution would be to have a sufficient number of bases scattered around the country.

    Brazil is a quite large country (8.615 million km2) and did choose Gripen E. Presumably they will have more than one air base in Brazil…

    It is interesting to note that although Canada is of course larger than Brazil, it is not that much more larger (9.985 million km2).

    It is also interesting to note that Switzerland, which concluded that Gripen E was barely able to meet their requirements in terms of range and persistence, is much much smaller than either of them.

    So the conclusion could perhaps be that the requirements depends on a large number of factors, and whether a light fighter is considered to have “adequate” range is highly dependent on the various scenarios a specific air force needs to consider, and not just the size of the country.

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2141809
    Loke
    Participant

    Since the contract was signed with Brazil October 2014, Saab has been reporting the delivery date of 2019:

    Saab and industrial partners including Embraer are to start work on 36 Gripen NG fighters formally ordered by Brazil with the signing on 27 October of a SKr39.3 billion ($5.8 billion) contract for delivery over five years, starting in 2019.

    https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/saab-brazil-finalise-gripen-ng-deal-405288/

    I recalling reading somewhere that Sweden decided to shift their delivery date to 2019 to coinside with the Brazilian delivery date, however could not locate the link. Sweden’s introduction was really linked to supporting the industry and not to any military needs, so it sounds plausible.

    In any case, it is no doubt that they since October 2014 has reported 2019 as delivery date; if delivery happens later then it will be a delay compared what was written in the contract with Brazil in 2014.

    Edit: what is also interesting to note is that the deal with economically weak Brazil was not really finalized until almost one year later, in September 2015:

    Brazil has finalised a $4.68 billion deal for 36 Saab Gripen NG fighters after concluding more than 20 months of negotiations over pricing and industrial cooperation against the backdrop of a deepening economic and political crisis.

    Saab announced late on 9 September that the full value of the contract is now internally booked in the company’s order backlog.
    Brazilian engineers and technicians will travel to Sweden in October to begin training to assemble components and full aircraft. Saab plans to deliver all 36 Gripen NGs between 2019 and 2024.

    https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/brazil-finalises-468bn-gripen-ng-deal-416586/

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2143641
    Loke
    Participant

    I am sorry, but that isn’t remotely plausible.

    A multi-billion dollar/euro project like a new fighter development program can’t just shift critical deadlines/milestones around in that manner. At the onset of the project everything is tied to a central schedule that dictates when raw materials must be ordered, when certain software needs to be complete, when various certifications must be obtained, when first flight must occur, etc.

    If you take one of those dates and simply move it a year+ to the right it impacts everything else. Suddenly you are pushing later airframes farther to the right, which impacts when you order parts and perform work on them, etc etc.

    It is precisely these complex inter-dependencies that make delivering a new fighter on schedule so difficult. One missed estimate for how long it will take to perform a necessary task and the whole project can start to fall behind pace.

    Returning to the Gripen NG specifically, either they intentionally lied about when they intended to perform their first flight and deliver their first aircraft (awfully unlikely) or the project has encountered significant delays. (very likely) They would never casually slip the whole project by a year or more with a funded contract in hand. That would entail extra cost, risk, and a delay in seeing a return on all company funded investment. (effectively money lost)

    I am sorry but you are wrong.

    A change in external customer from Switzerland to Brazil obviously has a huge impact on the project, and in this case also the timelines of the project. What you fail to realize is that the requiments changed; Switzerland had one set of requiments, and Brazil had another set of requirements.

    Obviously when such huge changes are made to a project, the plans need to change quite dramatically.

    What you perhaps fail to realize is that Sweden was not pushing this project; Sweden could have waited until 2020 or even later for delivery. Thus timelines were driven by the external customer. When the external customer was shifted from Switzerland to Brazil, and the requirements were changed, the timelines obviously needed to be updated.

    You cannot change a project plan without actually changing it.

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2143707
    Loke
    Participant

    This absolutely confirms the program did not stop with the Swiss cancellation:

    http://saabgroup.com/Media/news-press/news/2014-05/Result-in-Swiss-referendum-announced/

    So yes, they are now 18 months behind schedule. That isn’t all that remarkable given that nobody anywhere seems to be able to deliver a fighter on schedule…

    That was more a marketing ploy as anything else. In 2014 Sweden actually had no strong desire to have the Gripen E delivered in 2018; they merely wanted to demonstrate they were committed. Once Brazil came aboard they rapidly reached agreement that 2019 would be the year of the first delivery. Sweden, which was quite happy with the C/D could probably have waited even longer. Why should they accelerate timelines if there was no need?

    The (external) customer decides; Brazil wanted delivery in 2019 and thus here we are. 2019 should therefore be considered “baseline”. Delays beyond that will definitely be delays.

    On verra.

    in reply to: Canadian Fighter Replacement #2143709
    Loke
    Participant

    And regarding Denmark (because I mentioned it as a country with an air force operating F16 in similar conditions than those seen in northern Canada:

    Source:
    Wiki

    Greenland was actually Norwegian, but was “stolen” by those pesky Danes a long time ago.

    in reply to: Should the Brits have accepted the Rafale design? #2143838
    Loke
    Participant

    I believe the Swiss concluded that Typhoon was significantly more expensive than Rafale, in particular in terms of operating costs.

    Also India concluded that Typhoon was more expensive than Rafale.

    What did the Danes say about the costs of Typhoon vs SH and F-35?

    in reply to: Canadian Fighter Replacement #2143876
    Loke
    Participant

    https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/opinion-canadas-f-35-participation-deserves-scruti-431807/

    Those (utterly useless) internet surveys…. At the time of writing F-35 ranks third not first! And Rafale is ranked last!

    Oh well.

    in reply to: Canadian Fighter Replacement #2143925
    Loke
    Participant

    Yeah I recently saw the 55k service ceiling on the EF product page as well. I was surprised by that too. I always thought it was 60k. That said, I’m pretty sure the F-15 is and has been the undisputed champ in service ceiling amongst western fighters for a very long time. That I am not surprised by.

    Here it says 65k for the Typhoon:

    https://www.eurofighter.com/news-and-events/2015/07/eurofighter-typhoon-delivers-300000-reliable-flying-hours

    the “undisputed champ” amongst the western a/c is neither the F-15 nor the Typhoon but rather the F-22 I would think….

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2143960
    Loke
    Participant

    Saab clarifies that the main purpose of opening an office is the Philipines is to target the civilian not military market, .i.e. they are not considering the Philipines a market for the Gripen at the moment:

    STOCKHOLM (AFX) Saab business opportunities in the Philippines is mainly on civil and not military field, and little hope of being able to sell the Gripen aircraft or submarines harbors not now.
    It says Håkan Buskhe Direkt at Thursday’s Capital, speaking of the office of the defense group opened in the country as recently as a few weeks ago. The workforce totals so far only to “some employees”.
    “Above all, we believe that there is a great need on the civilian side,” he says, in response to the news agency Direkt ask if he refers to air traffic that the Philippines is a major maritime country.

    Google translated from: http://www.va.se/telegram-fran-direkt/?NewsId=3684464:0F0EEA3F-BF80-47C7-B4D8-C75063B768F2

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2143961
    Loke
    Participant

    The original schedule I referred to was the one from when the project actually got the green light and assembly began.

    1. Sigh. the Ignore function works fine until somebody is quoting the persong being Ignored. Oh well.

    2. The project did not get the “green light”; it got a “yellow light”; then it got the “red light” when the Swiss voted no. When it finally got the green light the schedule called for first delivery in 2019. Since then first flight has been delayed by six months. Normally you seem to be a sensible person, so I find it a bit difficult to understand why this is so hard to comprehend?

    …and hopseydaisy? Really? Have we had some negative interaction I have forgotten?

    It seems to me that neither the “God” nor the “hopsalot” has much sense of humor….

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2144561
    Loke
    Participant

    They are 18 months behind schedule because that is how far they are behind the original schedule.

    I am saying that in the article you linked to their assumed first customer was Switzerland, and the Swiss wanted to have delivery of the first a/c in 2018; however Switzerland then pulled out.

    When Switzerland pulled out those plans were discarded, binned, thrown away.

    New customers came in and they wanted the a/c not in 2018 but in 2019. New plans were made and according to these new plans the first a/c will be delivered in 2019.

    Is this so hard to understand?

    in reply to: Canadian Fighter Replacement #2144648
    Loke
    Participant

    I think the F-15SE came with quite a bit contractor risk when it came to the modifications being proposed such as a conformal weapons bay, Fly by Wire and the canted tails modification. It would be safe to assume that South Korea would have been getting an AESA, and the new Electronic Warfare suite that the more advanced F-15E’s are getting elsewhere.

    South Korea will probably choose some of these as an upgrade to the F-15K’s down the road. I expect the AN/APG-82 adoption, and the EPAWSS to replace the TEWS currently flying on their aircraft.

    http://i65.tinypic.com/121358l.jpg

    Is this table really from Janes?

    I am no Tiffie expert but AFAIK its service ceiling is 65,000 feet…. which makes me wonder what else they got wrong?

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2144685
    Loke
    Participant

    I have no problem believing it is the software… but modern fighters can’t fly without software and a delay is a delay.

    I just don’t like them pretending that this isn’t a delay and that somehow they just decided to shift their entire flight test schedule to the right by another 6 months as a result of “optimization.”

    Don’t forget, the original schedule called for first flight back in 2015, indicating that they are now roughly 18 months behind schedule.

    https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/saab-reveals-full-gripen-e-design-cost-savings-396977/

    They can spin things however they want, but they are already 18 months behind their schedule.

    The flightglobal article you linked to was written when the plan was still to go with Switzerland as the first customer; when S pulled out due to the referendum results, things were put on a halt until Brazil and Sweden agreed to move forward. New timelines were then drawn up with Brazil, stating that the first a/c will be delivered in 2019, with first flight end of 2016.

    On the basis of this, how do you conclude that they are “already 18 months behind their schedule”?

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2144795
    Loke
    Participant

    I don’t buy it for a second. They are delaying the start of flight testing by ~6 months even though they claim they are confident in the system? Time is money… if they were really sure the plane would perform as intended they would start testing on schedule and obtain the civilian certification somewhere down the road.

    Given the flight control system related crashes they had in the original Gripen program I can’t blame them for being cautious, but a delay is a delay.

    They claim shifting the date of the first test flight will not lead to a delay in the program later on — let’s wait and see.

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2144865
    Loke
    Participant

    We responded to Finland’s RfI, which actually was more like a request for proposals [RfP], yesterday, and we will now wait for their response,” Ahlqvist said, adding that the company is pitching the E/F model aircraft for this particular requirement. Finland formally launched its HX project to replace the air force’s 55 F/A-18C and seven F/A-18D Hornets in October 2015, with RfIs being issued to BAE Systems for the Eurofighter Typhoon; to Boeing for the F/A-18 Hornet and F-15 Eagle; to Dassault for the Rafale; to Lockheed Martin for the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) and F-16 Fighting Falcon; and to Saab for the Gripen. A formal RfP is due in the first quarter of 2018, with a contract award following in 2021.

    In terms of further near-term opportunities, Ahlqvist said that in Europe leasing discussions with Slovakia for the C/D are entering into their final phase, while Belgium (E/F), Bulgaria (C/D), and Croatia (C/D) are all expected to issue RfPs in the next six months. Switzerland (E/F) remains a target market despite a previous agreement having been rejected in a referendum in May 2014, he added, noting that, “We didn’t lose in Switzerland, we just didn’t win.”

    In Africa, Ahlqvist said that Botswana (C/D) is in early discussions with the Swedish government, and that progress has been “positive”. In Asia, Saab has responded to an Indonesian (C/D) request, and to India (E/F) also.

    Read more: http://www.janes.com/article/65721/saab-responds-to-finnish-fighter-rfi-sees-wider-prospects-for-gripen

    It will be interesting to see how these pan out!

    Also interesting to note the phrase “responded to and Indonesian RFP” — I thought they had decided to go for Su-35 already?

Viewing 15 posts - 481 through 495 (of 3,001 total)