JSRwhen I said 10 years. the time period starts from when C-130 was first selected to the time when last of the 12 airplane is inducted. this is 10 year period.
India cannot be blame for IL-214 as it cannot contribute anything. so there is no chance of India has any impact on IL-214 schedule.
JSRI agree India procurements are too slow to have any joint project or assembly line. 12 C-130 already cost $2b and these 12 aircraft will take almost 10 years to induct.
IL-476/IL-214 are much bigger projects that combine AWACS/Tanker/MPA/Cargo into single platform with same industrial chain.
JSRUkriane cannot repay loans or pay market price for gas. . Its education, infrastructure and demographics from past 25 years has degenerated that hardly it can contribute anything.
without rent from pipelines. it will dissolve into smaller states.
JSRBuying C-17s off-the-shelf is fine as they are only needed in limited numbers. But a bread-and-butter capability like medium tactical transport is something India needs a lot of, enough to justify domestic production. India could be producing C-130J right now rather than buying in handfuls off-the-shelf whilst waiting for IL-214.
IL-214 can only come after IL-476 as they are sharing great many parts, engines etc. ultimately operating combined fleet of IL-476/IL-214 will cost far less.
JSRWhat hard currency ? US dollar ? Russia doesn’t even want to use US dollar in global trade anymore
hard currency means anything that is easily tradeable like Oil/Gold/Grains/metals etc. not paper currency.
Failed projects ? ARJ-21 already received over 300 orders, C919 over 400 orders
it can have 3000 orders but production line capacity constrained, complete dependence on external parts and engine, and poor efficiency for airlines make it failed from the start.
You sure it has no negative impact on Russian military industry ?
http://online.wsj.com/articles/eu-officials-mull-broader-sanctions-against-russia-1406199818
“Another sector that could be targeted is militarily sensitive, or “dual-use,” goods. EU exports of these goods to Russia amount to €20 billion a year. “The restriction would consist in an export ban for all dual goods for military use, military end-users or mixed end-users,” the document says.“
if Russia can get Mistral it easily get stuff from STMicro , ASML , faeth etc. and they may already have bought the required technology.
http://faeth.com/en/2014/07/cleanroom-successfully-certified-for-the-first-300mm-wafer-size-fab-in-russia/
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-05-27/russian-palladium-flows-to-switzerland-jump-on-sanction-concerns
I will even predict that EU will need Russia more as EU spends its limited resources on bottom less pit like Ukraine.
Libya war greatly helped in fast conclusion of Mistral deal with technology at reasonable price.
Affordability depends on how wealthy you are
wealthy or debt?. only Oil exporting countries are debt free to great extent.
JSRSorry to step in, but since You get personlly rude again … let me just add a few notes:
That’s simply wrong. I never claimed to be an expert on Ukrainian aviation, the same for Russian … but at least I do not tell such stupid things that the “power of an Air Force equals the export sales as the most important factor. By the way anytime heard how often Russian aviation experts or high ranking militaries overrate their own abilities ??? Maybe they are over-enthusiastic, maybe they know things we all here don’t know (that’s for sure) or they are simply drunk !
So where are the six super-carrier battle groups, that were promised a few years ago for the mid of the next decade (http://defense-update.com/newscast/0808/070803_russian_navy_expansion_plans.html#more) or even this joke:
Russian 6th generation warplane to be created in 12 years :highly_amused::highly_amused: (see: http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/740838)
internet is sewer. I did not bring this claim. so you cannot associate me with them.
Correct in the first part – but the same goes for Russia with its falling income within the next years due to this crisis – but otherwise again wrong: What has pollution and living cost to be for predicting the C919 to be a failiure ??? (the same could be said for the MS-21) or where are so many failed helicopter projects that are relevant to anything with the Y-20 ??? (which IMO will be build in larger numbers than Your beloved Il-476 ... surely not yet but let’s wait a few years !) and regarding the L-15 – better known as the JL-10 – it will be produced in larger numbers than the Yak.-130 ... and by the way since when is that type under development (1992-2002… upps that even one year longer !), how many years were the flight testing long (2002-209 due to how many crashes ??) and how many have been build so far ???
Anyway the Yak-130 will have a bright future I’m sure … but the JL-10 in PLAAF-servise too.
falling income?. its another of your myth. Just look at deals that VSMPO-AVISMA signed at airshow with western firms.
MS-21 is not built in 40 million metropolitan. Indutrial supply chain is another issue.
see the highlighted part of another of your prediction regarding Y-20 number surpassing IL-476.
JL-10 produced in large number than Yak-130?.
2002-2009 development period has nothing to do with current Yak-130 as it was not built at Irkut and industrial funding was simply not on this scale.
I knew but I only questioned if a nearly full autonomy from Ukraininian supply will be done within one year … like You suggested. And regarding my over-optimistic altitude in nregard to CHinese projects, the same could be said for Your altitude in regard to Russain projects … however I don’t tell the world that China will do or have this and that then and when … I present or post most of all images, which tragically seem to hurt Your Russian pride more than they feed my enthusiasm !
so the recent helicopters that keep exported to China. from where there parts coming from?. start with Mi-26, Ka-32 to Mi-171.
Again where do I overrate … I simply have that strange feeling that each and every new project from China is gaining momentum (even small one) it reminds You how far Your beloved Russian migh is falling behind, how much others (and not China alone) is catching up and that hurts You so much that You are blinded by anger to be rational … but O.k. … where did I celebrate the J-10B as being introduced into service (just quote my post !) and even more why has the maiden flight of the first serial versions anything to do with the lack of “TVC, CFT, no carrier version” ???? Are You stupid man ??? Give me that link and I promise You to resign from posting here in this forum for ever !
But just let us end this nonsense here … simply since You can’t proof any of Your accusations and You know it.
Have a nice evening and dream on Your day-dreams,
Deino
you already overrate couple of things in your current post. so what effort is even needed to search for your past posts about your over estimation of Chinese aviation products.
TVC/CFT/Carrier version/5 wet stations are mid life upgrades programs for MIG-35/MIG-29K. J-10B lacks those and still taking long time in operational service. AVIC is simply not upto task of real 4.5G fighter let alone 5G. so no need to overestimate them.
JSRNo but it answers your silly question about why he is mainly on Chinese aviation threads. Frankly I would take a published author in the military aviation field over yourself when it comes to assessing the Ukrainian defence industry.
Please Deino write a book about the Ukrainian defence industry, it would be rather funny.
I said his more optimistic about Chinese products not just his always present in Chinese threads. He has zero idea about Ukranian defence industry. considering he even did not know the Joint venture for Yak-130 engine and assuming everything coming from Ukraine.
Well I like toasted Cheese sandwiches with a splash of Worcestershire Sauce, that is pretty much as relevant as what you just written there. That those projects are not viable is your OPINION, your OPINION is not FACT. None of those projects you mention are failed as of yet because they are currently still in development and haven’t been cancelled. Maybe some will be in the future and then we can call them a failed project, but until then all you are doing is expressing you opinion.
my predictions are correct more often than his. he was celerabrating J-10B induction ahead of time (plane without TVC, CFT, no carrier version). infact this plane is flight tests for 5 years. all he do is overestimating Chinese success in aviation sector without zero indepth analysis.
JSRAhhhh it never gets tired!
Well he does write books about Chinese military aviation so I would guess that it is going to be a focus of his interest isn’t it, you can buy his book and maybe learn something:
so writing book about Chinese aviation makes him expert on UKranian defence industry and its prospects.
Oh no not that old nugget again, please buy a new record! A failed project is one that was started and then ended with nothing to show for it at the end. The ARJ-21 is still development, delayed certainly but not cancelled. The C919 is also delayed but again not cancelled. The L-15, well I haven’t heard of any significant issues and it has its first domestic and international orders.
well endless supply of money can continue projects for years but at some point this unviable projects. (building C919 in Shanghai with global parts. read about cost of living and pollution) will become unaffordable. Y-20 is another failed project in making. there are countless in helicopters. L-15 extremely slow production rate after 9 years in flight tests with imported engine.
JSRIf indeed it’s the Ukrainians who are culpable then I would expect the rebels to roll out the red carpet for crash site investigators instead of restricting their access and sending the black box to Russia. Action speaks louder than words and rebel action runs contrary to Russian explanations.
why would rebel roll out carpet for crash invistigators?. there are two parties to the conflict Kiev government (which has signed association agreement EU and funded by IMF) and Novorossia.
When you become party to the conflict than other side may not even bother with your independent investigators.
Why would the Ukraine shoot down an aircraft tracking from their territory?
they may be desparate for attention. see there inflation and interest rate. This the same EU that hasn’t compensated Italy for Libya losses. See the ENI.
Ukraine history about 2001 civil airline downing. They are still in old Soviet Model.
The credibility of Kiev elite is very low.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-30/dashed-ikea-dreams-in-ukraine-show-decades-lost-to-corruption.html
Compared with Ukraine, Russia, the most corrupt major economy, “is whiter than snow,” Lennart Dahlgren, the retired Ikea executive who spearheaded the company’s entry into Russia, said in an interview with Russkiy Reporter magazine in 2010. Dahlgren said he met with every Ukrainian president and prime minister since 2004 and all of them said they wanted to help Ikea enter the market.“But we weren’t able to make a deal because Ikea’s system didn’t have any money for bribes,” Dahlgren told the magazine.
The on rebels have a history of recent shoot=downs including an IL-76/SU-35/AN-26 plus helos. The rebels are not using airpower todate hence no reported losses.
if rebels are regularly shooting down planes. it means they are competent at what they are shooting.
Please explain the phone intercepts. Russian weapon deployed and operated by “mercenaries/volunteers from there]…..
the people whose phones are intercepted may also know that there phones are intercepted.
JSRIts well known that Putin wanted Ukraine in the Eurasian Economic Union. Without Ukraine, the EEU is just a slightly enlarged Russia. Very far from the envisioned counterpart/counterweight to the EU.
And again, $100B in capital expenditure is not the same thing as $100B in imports, moron.
it is only known to extent that Ukraine used EEU entry as bargaining chip with EU to get money. Putin never made practical steps or monetary inducement for Ukraine to Join EEU.
slightly enlarge Russia? Kazakhistan is greater size than entire western EU with natural resources and transport routes to China. as I said Russia does not want any transport route through Ukraine or Industry and that is policy of past 15 years.
infact Russia may want it to be a failed state so that it can absorb the labor resources and does not become competitor to agriculture exports.
EU is not a counterweight of EEU. EU has neither surplus money/ natural resources or manpower. EU is complete depended entity that need US protection. (see Libya war example). or need US permission to attack Syria.
Also dependence on Russia/Arabian commodities and banking money makes EU closer to failed state.
I say greater land mass control make it bigger power.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/air-france-plane-diverted-by-russia-for-military-exercise/
Air France plane diverted by Russia for “military exercise
BERLIN – Air France says a plane carrying 495 passengers and 22 crew was diverted on its way from Shanghai to Paris after Russia announced at short notice that part of its airspace was closed for a military exercise.The company said flight AF111 was forced to land in Hamburg, Germany, early Wednesday to refuel because the plane had too little fuel on board to complete the flight following its detour
JSRThe current crisis ‘started’ with Ukraine’s attempt to forge closer ties with the European Union and the Putin govt’s attempt to sabotage that, presumably to further the interests of the Eurasian Economic Union, which without Ukrainian membership is more or less irrelevant.
Again big misconception on your part of Russia wanting Ukraine in EuroAsian Union.
This is actually worst than your $100b import claim for India.
In past 15 years since Putin came to power. Russia has done the following.
1. Complete Independence of Russian defence industry from Ukranian imports. There was still dispute on An-70 intellectual rights.
2. That $15b that was offered to Ukraine last year was strict loan based on international Law . with no lump sump tranche. even the Pro-Russian government does not have money to buy off Oligarchs.
3. building piplines that does not pass through Ukraine to deprive it of rents. Nordstream and Blue stream completed. South Stream No 1 priorty. The rest is all to Asia. with prepayment clause to China so Russia already got the money even if Ukraine pipelines are completely shut for couple of years.
4 the most important is agriculture. Creating war zone in Ukraine creates people to flee to Russia or EU and Ukraine never compete against Russian grain exports to Arab world and Iran. even Crimea started grain exports.
http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL6N0PT2MS20140718
5 Crimea is gone so no longer rent for Black sea fleet or gas discounts. Southern and western tip of Crimea S400 can create much effective no fly zone.
Between chaos in the Middle East and tensions in East/SE Asia, the US had enough on its plate not to want to adopt a new headache in Eastern Europe. The NATO wasn’t in the picture at all. Until recently even in western Ukrainian there was little support for joining the NATO.
actually Russia may want US back in EU. This rub EU in bad way of asking for external protection.
It also release pressure from China/Iran which is considered cash cow for Russia. The more Iran gets free hand in Middleast. the more terrified are Arab and higher the crude prices.
JSRjust a thought here, as the majority of the passengers were Dutch (155 passengers), could this incident blow the Ukraine conflict out of control.
there were also 5 (confirmed) Belgians on board, but from a NATO/Military standpoint, the shooting down of a civilian aircraft could be seen as an act of agression.could this incident escalate the (already tense) situation in that region, perhaps trigger a NATO active involvement?
Problem for Europe is they are trying to resurrect a dead horse. so all the money is already given to Ukraine so there is nothing else left to mobilize.
http://voiceofrussia.com/uk/news/2014_07_17/Ukraine-Follow-the-money-Putin-advises-IMF-7150/
Turkey and most of Southern EU is not even interested. infact they want Russia to built pipelines for them so they get the transit revenue and forget about Ukraine.
JSRGun + TVC = AAM shootdown
much better than your $100b imports.
JSRhow the hell is that even of consequence as to how the power supply was provided to them or how the flight testing was done? they were integrated and were in use during Cope India 2004.
so technicalities can be ignored in making claim.
JSRthe Bisons did- they used the Israeli Elta EL/L 8222 self-protection jammers in the Cope India 2004 exercise.
so bison had jammers in 2004. when they were integrated?. how was the power supply and aerodynamic testing.
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