I use the term operational in the lay sense. For IOC, I would use IOC. For mere show trials, they’re progressing rather quickly. Some people thought it would take years more for China to actually land a plane on a carrier. I’m not going to be one who says that China will have a fully capable carrier group ready in the next year. However, to assume they will never get there, or get there at a pace that maintains a capability gap with other countries, I think, would be naive.
how are the progressing quickly? by refurbishing 1970s era carrier with 1980s era fighter jet that was not built with supercomputers & CNC machines from start. THere is not only lack of innovation but lack of confidence. considering short trials.
You and I can argue about China’s hypothetical potential capabilities, but the truth is we’re both so ill informed it would be nothing more than an imaginary exercise in bs abilities. I do not know if China can operate a stealth aircraft against all kinds of new radars for the next 40 years, but you do not know if it can’t. (so, moot premise, really)
thats why i ask before calling some thing steath is it has been universally tested against the best radars.
What is not so imaginary is that China has caught up rather quickly, and has in the last two years constantly surprised many who have insisted Chinese military technology will advanced at a slower pace. I don’t know about you, but given the assumption that we’re all following these sorts of things because we want to be better informed, I would much rather be accurate rather than arrogant or presumptive about where the PLA will be in the near future (this is true for both naysayers and fanboys).
I think China is falling behind every year as it has started too many mediocre projects simulatneously. thats why it always need external assistance. see Bombardier example. Seeking help for heavy lift chopper.
You can simply assume that the J-20 is all looks and no show, but given the evidence and what we do know for sure about recent developmental trends in Chinese military technology its history, that interpretation does not seem compelling, especially when the argument is that China still lacks capability A or B. Where something was or is, is not always indicative of where it will be in the future.
All we have seen some low altitude flying at this point from J-20. there is no data about flight tests. and how many prototypes have been built?
If China weren’t capable of supplying its own engines it wouldn’t be flying flankers with WS-10s or testing the J-10B with WS-10As.
we dont know about lifespan/reliability/maintainability of those engines or even production process behind. (It may even cost $1m to $10m a piece). All we know that majority of k-8/JF-17 are exported with foreign engines.
We will see if China can build a reliable supercruising engine when we see what engine the J-20 has going into production, but to automatically assume that it cannot and will not succeed is grossly ignoring the pace and progress which China has advanced in military technology.
It is very correct asssumption considering China dont have that much success even in heli engines. only some low power short span cruise missile or UAV engines at best at this point.
This is indeed China we’re talking about, and in the last 20 years China has not only made generational leaps in its military capabilities, but has done so by moving away from reverse engineering to indigenous development. It would be silly to think that a country with 1.3 billion people and the world’s fastest growing economy would depend solely on reverse engineering to develop its own technological base.
how u came to conclusion of world fastest growing economy?
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