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JSR

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  • in reply to: RuAF News and Development Thread 9 #2343341
    JSR
    Participant

    it looks 150 combat/trainer aircraft per year. Yak130 will not be more than 15 a year. as 55 delivery date is 2015.
    In 2014 there would be 100 SSJ/An148/Tu214/IL476/BE-200 production per year.

    http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ain-defense-perspective/2012-07-20/russian-aircraft-developments-described-farnborough
    United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) president Mikhail Pogosyan told journalists at Farnborough that military production will fall from today’s 80 percent of the UAC total to 58 percent in 2014 due to the rapid expansion of civil and special-mission business.

    in reply to: Russian Navy Thread #2013794
    JSR
    Participant

    It may or may not be increased but we have no confirmation of it , right now its just Putins statement which could mean any thing could easily mean 8 -10 Yasen and 8 modernised Akula 971M or could mean 16 Yasen

    It is new nuclear attack submarines.
    http://larouchepac.com/node/23531

    No way SAP 20 Trillion Roubles is just for Weapons purchase it more likely the defence budget for 2011-2020 with 70 % being allocated for capital purchase and 30 % for Maintenance and Salary that is what i read in an article and it makes sense.

    There is another 3 trillion rouble for industrial development , SY/Factory upgrade repair

    There is no salary component & maintainance component in SAP.

    In 2011 budget was about $72b.
    http://www.themoscownews.com/russia/20120417/189640006.html

    In 2012 Salaries for most become double to triple. 2012 budget once year finishes will be in $90b. 2013 25% increase. Your looking over $120b.
    In 2020 defence budget will be closer to $300b.
    just 2017-2020 total defence budget will be closer to $850b.

    in reply to: RuAF News and Development Thread 9 #2344306
    JSR
    Participant

    Stop with this BS already. The F18E is too draggy to be used as a benchmark for range, unless you are claiming the Su is just as draggy which would be quite a shame.

    Nic

    you do know these ranges are calculated at subsonic speed at optimal conditions. in case of Su-35 with 4AAMs. Su-35 by its wing area is 30% larger airframe than F-18E.

    in reply to: Russian Navy Thread #2013819
    JSR
    Participant

    JSR we will have to wait and see if the news of 16 Multipurpose Submarine is true the original plan was for 8 Borei SSBN and 8-10 Yasen.

    The SAP program is not entirely procurement its 70:30 ratio where 70 % is for procurement and 30 % for Maintenance/Salary etc

    I dont see why it should not be increased. Nuclear subs have long endurance , speed and with automation less crew required compared to gas/diesel powered ships.
    newer cruise missiles make land and ship attack possible from long ranges. Any oil spike in future will so many ships unaffordable. There is no mention of maintainance/salary in SAP.

    in reply to: Russian Navy Thread #2013838
    JSR
    Participant

    The total number of conventional SSK was between 10 and 20 SSK depending on which figures you believe , so 16 multipurpose subs is an interesting statement.

    I dont think its Akula because they are not talking of modernised submarine but new built ones.

    16 SSN is not big deal. $32b at most
    8 borei. $16b
    Rest of 20 SSK. at most $10b.
    So now your at $58b.

    You still have about $90b ship building budget left.
    $1.7b for first two Mistrals.

    next 5 Yasen are at $9b.

    http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/11/09/idINIndia-60428820111109
    Russia orders five Yasen class nuclear subs

    in reply to: RuAF News and Development Thread 9 #2344857
    JSR
    Participant

    Of course, refined aerodynamic, better FCS, TVC and possible better weight distribution make SU-35S much more maneuverable plane than SU-27, but 2 tone empty weight increase would degrade some of its performance.
    I hope that empty plane weights no more than 17500kg.

    17.5tons is too heavy for Su-35.
    See 15 ton F-18E has 2300km range from 6.5ton fuel.
    Straight multiplication of fuel increase will give 4050km range for F-18E.
    increase weight of F-18E by 10% (about 1.5tons) to 16.5tons. and reduce the range of 4050km by 10% will give 3600 range.
    16.5ton is more reasonable figure considering stronger engines than baseline Su-27. and it proves in low altitude flight. 1580km range.

    in reply to: RuAF News and Development Thread 9 #2344860
    JSR
    Participant

    The 9-12 is the best variant in wing-load with helmet-sight and R-73. The 9-13 and later ones are worse about that. Maybe FBW will give that a faster response for inst. manuver maybe. 😉

    Wing area of MIG-29K/MIG-29M is increased 15%.
    33% increase in range with 37% increase in fuel capacity. since the newer MIG-29/35 are larger with bubble canopies. i assume there is increase drag. so that drag is overcome by stronger engines. weight stay the same. otherwise not possible to increase 33% range on internal fuel.

    in reply to: F-35 News thread. Part Deux #2346297
    JSR
    Participant

    The “yanks” could only afford 180+ F-22s in the end, despite the USAF’s huge budget. How many T-50s and J-20s will the Russians and Chinese be able to afford in the end?

    Public debt to GDP is low. and banking system is not exposed to bad loans. see equipment budget untill 2015 can be financed by banks with out taking money from main defense budget.
    http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2012/07/30/russia-fin-min-cost-rearmament-program-coming-from-budget-may-be-postponed/

    if 600 combat are built before 2020. than only T-50 will be built after 2020. my estimate is there will be more T-50 than Flankers.

    in reply to: J-20 Thread 7 #2347169
    JSR
    Participant

    As I don’t understand russian your link is wasted on me. I just read 16500 Kg which could be or couldn’t be exact, although I don’t understand why they would need to strenghten the front gear if there is no weight increase compared to other variants.

    Also why wouldn’t you take RAM into account? Nor the fact that early Su30s had a service life of 2000 hours to be upgraded to 6000 hours.

    Are you sure 18400 Kg is the weight for the upgraded version or is it the weight of the 2000 hours version. Surely tripling the service life of the plane includes quite a bit of strenghtening.

    Nic

    Also at lower altitude.
    Su-30 has range of 1270km
    Su-27SK 1340km. (Only 70km difference between Su-30 and Su-27 at lower altitude but 530km difference at higher altiude)

    Su-35 1580km

    in reply to: Will many NATO air forces be mainly obsolete by 2030? #2348259
    JSR
    Participant

    Why is the cost of an initial LRIP batch F-35 paid by the US DoD in 2012 relevant? By the time large scale dliveries of F-35 to European nations are underway, the quoted unit cost will be a lot lower. Have a look the cost history of programs like C-17 for example.

    quoted price of F-35 will depend on alot of factors. C-17 was developed in low inflationary environment of 1990s. A400M not.

    I dont see any one forming operational squardon of F-35 in EU before 2020.
    The problem is when host nations stop buying EF. It will raise the price of new fighters for export. See M2000 & Tornado examples.
    http://www.janes.com/products/janes/defence-security-report.aspx?ID=1065969970&channel=defence&subChannel=business
    UK slashes F-35B numbers but might look to split buy with F-35As

    in reply to: J-20 Thread 7 #2348483
    JSR
    Participant

    This is Official:

    http://www.knaapo.ru/eng/products/su-35/index.wbp

    Su-35S
    Take-off weight, kg:
    normal (2 x RVV-AE + 2 x R-73E) 25,300

    Su-27
    Empty weight: 16,380 kg (36,100 lb)
    Loaded weight: 23,430 kg (51,650 lb)

    So substract 55-60% of its total fuel fraction(11.500kg), which is part of its Normal Take-off weight on any regular mission.
    It should be around 6000-6500kg of fuel.

    And then substract the weight on those four missiles.
    Approx 600-700kg.

    Around 18,000kg. and then substract Pylons and chaff/flares etc etc.. to get empty weight.

    You get less than 2 tons weight increase..
    Much closer to 1 ton i’d say.

    Edit:
    Isn’t the overall notion that the Su-35S has a better W/T ratio over Su-27..

    Another way of looking at it is Su-35 takeoff run is 400~450m.
    Su-30MK2 is 550m.
    Takeoff run of Su-27SK 450m.
    http://www.sukhoi.org/eng/planes/military/su27sk/lth/
    If Su-35 takeoff run is identical or shorter than Su-27SK than it is practically same weight as thrust increase is 15% but fuel capacity increase is 22%

    in reply to: J-20 Thread 7 #2349338
    JSR
    Participant

    If so, it probably will exceed the T-50 in both range and internal payload. A little depressing to think about from an Indian POV…

    Word is, as with the PAK FA the AL-31 won’t be the ‘final engine’. Assuming the WS-xx that replaces it is successful, it should take care of the weight problem.

    J-20 has small wing area relative to its size. No spacing between engines and with duck like profile. weight and drag will kill its range.
    It is more in F-18E/EF/F-22 class (that is big if ) interms of range than Su-35.
    why do u think onle one or two are flying and it does not have complexity of TVC.

    looks almost 1.5 times wider from the front. just look at the canopy area. it will be very heavy stuff.

    http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/4fcd0dde6bb3f7f00e00000e-650/j20raptor.jpg

    in reply to: Will many NATO air forces be mainly obsolete by 2030? #2349407
    JSR
    Participant

    What you say does not make sense. EADS does not have to finance projects out of current profit being generated or otherwise need to borrow from governments and banks. You have forgotten/don’t know that companies can have cash reserves. These can be used to cover development costs. How much cash has EADS got at the moment?

    “EADS, the owner of Airbus, built up a record €12.2bn (£10.6bn) cash pile by the end of the first quarter, on new orders for Airbus planes.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/8513047/Airbus-owner-EADS-builds-up-10.6bn-cash-pile.html

    TTotal $15b cash reserves is nothing. This size firms have alot of obligation for payrolls and huge number of suppliers. they need to maintain cash.
    Apple which is less R&D intensive with far less complex supply chain has $110b of cash.
    Just the one MFD screen in Airbus is more complex than all Apple product.

    in reply to: Will many NATO air forces be mainly obsolete by 2030? #2349730
    JSR
    Participant

    Your comments don’t make sense to me. The EU banking system doesn’t work now but Airbus seems to have no problems selling the A320. What alternative assembly lines are you talking about?

    EU banking system works otherwise debt wont be increasing.

    No? After Airbus announced the A320NEO (incorporating new engine technology) they received 1000+ orders in less than a year. The A320NEO became the fastest selling jet airliner in the history of aviation.

    Even start up airlines in dead economy like Japan can get lease.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aviation/jetstar-japan-completes-a320-leases/story-e6frg95x-1226424344602

    IF you look at net income for first half for EADS. it is not that much. You simply cannot fund new complex projects with this small NI figure. They will have to go back to banks or Government for new projects.

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-07-27/eads-profit-almost-doubles-on-airbus-even-after-a350-charge
    First-half net income rose to 594 million euros, or 73 cents a share, from 109 million euros, or 13 cents, a year earlier, the company said. Six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News had estimated a figure of 497 million euros

    Russian and soon Chinese will copy it as long as aircrafts are certified.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-12/russia-to-boost-financing-guarantees-to-help-new-aircraft-sales.html
    “You create a system of sale financing for the aircraft you’re manufacturing,” Pogosyan said in an interview, speaking through an interpreter. “We’re actively working on creating an export agency in the same way as in the Western countries.”

    In the U.S., the Export Import Bank guarantees bank loans to some airlines outside the U.S. to help support job creation at home. France, Germany, the U.K. and Spain also have export credit agencies to help support sales of Airbus planes.

    in reply to: Will many NATO air forces be mainly obsolete by 2030? #2349796
    JSR
    Participant

    As per wiki:

    Type – Empty weight – Dry thrust – Wet thrust – Dry TWR – Wet TWR
    Su35 – 18400 kg – 172.6 kn – 284 kn – 0.94 – 1.54
    Rafale C – 9500 kg – 100.08 kn – 151,24 kn – 1.05 – 1.59

    Su35S is underpowered?

    Interesting 😮

    These are inaccurate estimation of weights.
    Su-35 cannot have 3600km range with 4AAM on internal fuel if it weighs 18.4 tons.
    F-18E has 2300km range on internal fuel. that is 15ton aircraft.
    so if 6.5tons fuel provide 2300km range. 11.5 tons should provide 4050km range. that is 10% more efficient.
    You come into 16.5tons empty weight figure for Su-35.
    It will be too optimistic for 18.4tons aircraft having 3600km range on internal fuel.

    Extra 2300 litres of CFT fuel provide 20 to 25% range improvement. Assuming Rafale internal fuel capacity of 5800L. that is 39% of internal fuel but only 20 to 25% range improvement.

    http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/dassault-reveals-conformal-tanks-131841/
    Dassault reveals conformal tanks
    The company says the extra 2,300litres of fuel provides a 20-25% range improvement.

    Su-35 2*2000L ET provide 900km of extra range. that 900km is 25% of 3600km. but 4000L is 27.8% of internal fuel.
    So even Su-35 ET are more efficient than Rafale CFT.

Viewing 15 posts - 3,661 through 3,675 (of 4,319 total)