GoldenDragonI agree there are very few developing countrys who want to buy the F-16 even though its the most cost effective fighter on the market. That leaves russian jets most often bought used as the only real alternative.
There really isn’t a general market except in the third world. Most of the fairly well off nations are locked up by US. These countries will buy at a higher price to keep their ties to the US. The UAE’s $80m a piece F-16s constitute a prime example.
Russian jets, because MiG and Sukhoi had amazingly not developed a single-engined lightweight, aren’t a cheap alternative any more. And far more expensive to run if we looked at the numbers coming out of the Brazil competition. It was estimated that the Gripen costs $2,300 per flight, the F-16 $8,000 and the Su-30 over $25,000! (according to Saab, anyways :D)
People talked about older Mig-29s and F-16s. Well, the F-16s are restricted by politics and when they are upgraded (OCU) like Italy or the Czech proposal, the price goes up exponentially. Without the OCU (no AMRAAMs) or MLU (AMRAAMs), these are just maneuverable but old airframes from the ’70s and ’80s.
The old Mig-29s are not even in the picture. Bangladesh is begging for people to take the 8 it has off its hand and Hungary and Romania are dropping theirs. Between those three nations, we have around 50 Mig-29s that people can’t give away (Germany did give away theirs, though :p)
The FC-1 looks to be the only fighter capable of filling this nitch, I see this jet as being equal to the F-20 tigershark, but at an affordable price. I believe the engine will be a bit maintenaince intensive for this jet, but if the airframe is cheap and reliable, then I think they may pull this off.
The engine is a weakness. Not only maintenance-wise but politically too. But the WS-13 project (Chinese RD-93 development) would hopefully help in those two counts. At any rate, the FC-1 one will deal with only one, not two R-33s :p
Mexico is sort of a toothless giant with only 10 F-5s, but its not under any serious threat either, so I could see them buying L-159s rather than the big expense of used F-16s or russian fighters.
There are several countries in the world that could buy a fairly large air force if they so choose but hasn’t. The Philipines is another one. There is a possibility that countries like Mexico and the Philipines would buy in the future if their neighbors get too far ahead of them.
Both nothern and subsaharan africa have in the past bought mainly russian hardware, as there is no longer cheap russian fighters on the market, only a few can manage to keep old or newer used russian fighters operational. If a low cost fighter like the FC-1 meets expectations, it will be a big seller here.
In North Africa and the Middle East. the FC-1 presents an extra incentive in that it could probably be sold with ToT like the K-8. Egypt and Iran are both looking for manufacturing capacity. Also because there will be an assembly line in Pakistan, the FC-1 would be perceived as a plane as at least partially built by the Islamic world.
Traditional Chinese allies in Africa like Tanzania, Namibia, and Zimbabwe will probably look at the FC-1 as a natural progression from the F-7s.
GoldenDragonSchizophrenia 😀
No one is sure whether they could acknowledge the J-10 publicly.
GoldenDragonI’m trying to figure out the price for the T/A-50 because there isn’t a proposal or contract yet (the FC-1 numbers are helped by the PAF which basically acts as a foreign buyer.)
Also the Golden Eagle’s primary market is in the trainers one, not the light fighter. It is hitting a market dominated by the Hawk which would probably take up KAI’s energy. The fighter version will take time to develop and will probably be secondary to the trainer unless there is a push from the ROKAF to buy an indigenous light fighter. That is unlikely with the large fleet of F-16s and the F-15K coming on.
It does have a future as a light attack craft but there are already the Alphajet and AMX in that class. The big money for it will be in the training market.
GoldenDragonThe UAE contract is $6.4 billion for 80 Block 60s. About $80 million per plane with the spares, maintenance and training.
GoldenDragonThe F-10 news is interesting. It’s not a light fighter but price-wise it is the comparable to the Gripen which is heavier in its empty weight than the FC-1.
The F-16 is considered a light fighter but pricewise the Block 60 on the level of medium/heavyweight fighter.
At some point costwise, the light fighter no longer has the price advantage and the buyer would opt for a larger airframe and capability at a similar price.
Here’s a list off the top of my head for the competing planes (* planes not in light class):
Model – estimated price, caveat
F-16 Block 60: $60m(flyaway), limited to US allies
F-16 Block 52: $70m (based on $700m deal for 10 C/Ds to Chile and the $3.6b Polish proposal for 48 C/Ds)
*SU-30MK/K: $40m-$45m, Russian avionics
Gripen: $40m, US veto because of American content
Mig-29 upg variants: around $30m (based on the Algerian proposal), Russian avionics
*F-10: $25m(probably flyaway price), built by commies, possible Russian engine
FC-1: $13-$15m, commies, Russian engine
Used F-16A/B(1): free, some lucky US ally, not very likely
Used F-16A/B(2): $25m (lease, based on 30 A/Bs to Italy)
Used F-16A/B(3): $39m (full ownership, based on $550m proposal to Czech Republic on 14 A/Bs)
GoldenDragonSomeone posted an embossed picture of a J-10B trailing exhaust in the chinese language forums.
GoldenDragonInteresting interview from The News (Daily Jang) a Pakistani newspaper
The PAF would have to work on a three-pronged programme for creating a semblance of balance of air power in the region – upgrade the existing fleet and acquire the JF-17, go for advanced Chinese J-10s in the coming few years and acquire hi-tech western jetfighters as soon as possible. “The question is, will the PAF have the resources to fund all these programmes?”
It sounds to me that acquiring the J-10 in the near future is one part of the three pronged plan. He stated that rather clearly: 1) JF-17 to upgrade the current fleet, 2) J-10s in coming years and 3) hi-tech western aircraft.
Now, it is possible that the hi-tech aircraft might be later versions of the J-10 or a J-10 with western avionics.
There is a recent article posted at CDF and in Huitong’s board that the J-10 is going for export and the J-10 with TVC would be exported later. Because China had not talked about exporting the J-10 before, this story must have come out after talks with Pakistan. The prices quoted, $25m for the basic J-10 and $29m for a vectoring model might actually be those being discussed by the PAF 🙂
A J-10 with vectoring and western or even Chinese avionics (as long as it doesn’t take an abnormally long time) would be pretty competitive, especially at $29m 😀
GoldenDragonThe story was posted in the Chinese forums (I’ll leave some pertinent quotes in babelfish :D) It is from a mainland Flight mag and the writer is not a CAC official so there is little partiality. It’s very long but reason why it’s long is his indepth opinion on each part of the FC-1.
His opinions are very hard hitting with a sharply critical eye.
The article starts off with a little history that we all know, Super 7, the PAF’s requirements and the begiining of the current program in 2002.
The really interesting part begins with a virtual walk-around by the author of the FC-1. He is using the FC-1 01 prototype in his description from photos, articles and TV interviews and specials (most of which we on the outside have not seen yet.)
The overall design: The author sees that the influence as being mainly western with elements influenced by the F-16, F-18 and even F-22. The evidence is seen in the blended body and wings, the LeRX (“side strips”) and the V configurated inlet arrangements. How well this mixture of western design will operate together in the air is a key question.
Cockpit/canopy: The cockpit/canopy on ptype 01 was big “shock” to him and others.
Our cockpit cover highly low, the pilot basically only reveals the head; But the F- 15 cockpit covers contours are big, the pilot nearly has 1/3 body dew in outside. Two arcs of visibility also therefore have the obvious difference.
It seems that forward vision is good but nothing like the American planes. The reason for this is two-fold, aerodynamics over the airframe shape and the expense of building a single “bubble canopy” like the American fighters.
He also went into LeRX, engine, and fuel fraction.
He is looked at the difference between ptypes 01 and 03. He saw large differences between 01 and 03, including the lower deflection angle of the tailplane in 03 (some here mentioned that, PLA, Phrozenflame :)) and also this very interesting observation on the pitot tubes and pressure vanes:
03 incidence vanes still used with 01 same weathercocks types sensor. What seemingly only is different was around 03 incidence vanes has sectioned out the weathercock deflection scope.
According to picture estimate deflection scope for > + 60/< – 30. What did this indicate? This scope certainly is not the airplane stable controllable flight angle of attack scope. Because after the angle of attack surpasses not the assymetrical nose which 35 appears ?, causes any not to have the big angle of attack three-axis control ability airplane all to be unable stably to fly. Then the incidence vane gathers this kind to far exceed the normal flight scope the data to do any. A possibility explanation is: The airplane fax flies controls has changes the abnormal condition in such angle of attack scope the ability ??otherwise these data speaking of to fly controls the computer fundamentally is useless. If really so, then to all hoped FC-1 has the good mobility even ultra mobile to live together harmoniously says, ?? on a good news. Because this requests the airplane after surpassed the normal angle of attack scope still to have the maintenance stable flight the ability (although not necessarily controllable), as well as the enough pitch control ability (produced including the behind strip lowers the head moment of force) otherwise the airplane to enter all of a sudden deeply loses speed or spiral good flies controls the system to be also helpless.
He is saying that the FC-1 is actually seems less stable than most outside observers believe.
GD’s note: If we look at the tailplane angles and the small wing fences on 01, we see devices possibly coping with pitch and roll instabilities.
In the 03, the author continues, we see many changes. The tailplane angle is much less. The wing fences are gone. 03 is fully FBW.
The author actually hit the FC-1 rather hard in that it was designed to replace the Mig-21s and F-5s but its major competitors even in the low end market would be the Gripen and the F-16 which to him are high medium level planes.
A big disadvantage is the FC-1 does not have a complete set of weapons yet and this needs to be developed by commitment. So even though the initial requirements for the PAF were a lower to save costs, the plane has built in potential. There is a big plug for the PLAAF to take the plane in large amounts 😀
Speaking of FC-1, calculated initially was specially develops for Pakistan, but circumstances changes with the time, the situation already completely was different. The air strategy transformation, caused us compared to the before any time to be all urgent need multipurpose fighter bomber. Soviet – 27/ – 30, the new fighter plane no doubt is the quite good choice, but price soaring, the equipment quantity not impossible to be very many. And uses in this kind of airplane to the ground non- high value goal attack really has disliking of the waste. Once is shot down on the gain does not equal the loss. In as mentioned earllier majority small national incapable establishment numerical advantage. But we different, with it opposite, we must use the considerable amount the airplane to replace retire annihilate – 7, are strong – 5. Requests differently with the Pakistani air force is, this kind of airplane ground-to-air performance requirement general, but is more prominent to the place performance need. At present looked that, FC-1 is one of best airplane platforms which we in the near future will be able to obtain. If can make the suitable improvement, will take ?? in the order form, brings the greatest income to the entire FC-1 plan.
The potential is there though at present, the Western Gripen and F-16s seem better.
the domestic market potential will be huge, the scale benefit which will form greatly reduces FC-1 the single plane cost.
…
Although cannot count on FC- 1 achieves JSF the level, but if can complete as far as possible. Not only front states the compatible question to be easily solved, moreover will enhance the function regarding the FC-1 next rapid promotion which the battle efficiency will have cannot estimate sets. Not only that, if can borrow this turning point to develop a set to have the China independent intellectual property rights the interface standard, then all will have the profound influence regarding the Chinese aviation next trend world.
…
If can complete, then FC-1 not only may surmount F-16 in the mobility later period (to need to explain, F-16 later period mobility was inferior to in fact F-16A/B), achieves in the third generation fighter plane a better level. Compare in the synthesis operational capacity aspect and F-16 also has no time to let. Considered the small national air force speaking of the majority in, most is suitable is 8 ~ 10 tons levels fighter planes, in addition FC-1 in aspect and so on structure life superiority, even if the price rises to 15 million US dollars, said regarding the user still extremely has ???. The happy viewpoint thought that, besides the Chinese fighter plane traditional customer, possibly also has a part presently to equip F-5E, the Mig – 21 countries can become FC-1 the user. Worst situation, 15 million US dollar, F-16 intermediate stage operational capacity, also enough attracts the Chinese air force (certainly to receive is the Pakistani air force), took the low-grade fighter plane provides the ordinary army. Has written such many, analyzes well to also, wrong also good, conceives reasonably good, is also absurd. In the final analysis a speech: “Hoped FC-1 can smoothly finalize, writes down in the blue sky belongs to it.”
😀
He beats the heck out of it at first but sees great potential if China buys it and continues its development.
GoldenDragonGood post!
If sales of the J-10 (F-10) is a real possibility then China’s shroud of secrecy around the J-10 would have to come off.
This would explain the recent rumblings of the J-10 going onto the export market in the Chinese boards.
The PAF had said last year that they would pursue a plane with a higher tech level beyond the 15-200 FC-1 project. They didn’t mention the J-10 specifically. The PAF ACM then only said an advance plane from the West or China.
If the report is quoting directly ACM Saadat as saying “F-10” then it would be the first time that the J-10 is mentioned for sale by anyone!
But, as a note of caution, sometimes the ACM can say “advance planes” and the writer would get ahead of himself in his excitement and put down “F-10” because he had heard the rumors 🙂
Anyways, a very good post and if Saadat did “F-10” specifically then it is a major announcement because as of today, the J-10 still doesn’t officially exists according to Chinese officials!
GoldenDragonThis is my model from many months ago. Pretty close to the actual thing, no? 😀
GoldenDragonOh yeah!!! 😀 😀 😀
Say, has any of the early tidbits from the Chinese news groups/forums been wrong? 😀
We knew about prep work for the J-10B’s first flight during the FC-1’s first flight. We heard about the flight itself before the end of 2003.
Oh Yeah!!!
And now, here’s the picture! 😀
GoldenDragonThe fact that Walmart can sell so much Chinese stuff means that those are the best quality at the lowest price that people are willing to pay.
This is true across the board on Chinese products. A country exports don’t grow if the price/value is crappy. And China exports has grown faster than any other country’s in the past decade. It’s imports has also grown just as faster which signifies an internal engine (Chinese people buying both Chinese and foreign stuff.)
The truth is real crappy stuff comes from countries whose products you can’t find anywhere in Walmart.
These nations are either irrelevant as producers or whose names are like death to customers and therefore Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, doesn’t carry them.
GoldenDragonThe FC-1 is envisioned for countries who either can’t afford or are not allowed Western aircraft and that includes the Gripen, the cheapest of the western lot. It has a very realistic goal. All of the other planes listed depend on US engines/weapons which preclude them from those very markets that FC-1 is targeting.
I’m unsure about the J-10 for export because it’s not even acknowledged officially yet but if it was, it would be a high end complement to the FC-1 not really an competitor on the price range if the FC-1 stays at $13m that FC-1 project director talked about.
But a $29m TVC F-10 would be a serious competitor to any plane, hi, lo or med on sale 😀
GoldenDragonIn the FC-1’s case, it has a captive customer in the PAF and a semi-captive one in the PLAAF/PLAN – semi-captive in that we know China needs a low end machine and it is the home country of the developing company.
That gives a little bit of an advantage over the T/A-50.
Chengdu also has a list of clients which is a leg up because it means that people who’ve bought from them did so for a reason and those same reasons might still be around.
So for the list of potential customers, Chengdu/China has:
For captive audiences/partners:
1. China
2. Pakistan
For former clients:
3. Bangladesh
4. Sri Lanka
5. Burma
6. Egypt
7. Iran
8. Zimbabwe
9. Tanzania
10. Namibia
11. Albania
12. N Korea
13. Vietnam
14. Iraq
Now we begin to eliminate them on terms of requirements and politics at first.
Politics would eliminate Iraq, most likely eliminate Vietnam and N Korea. Economics and requirements would eliminate Albania (even though it recently signed a maintenance contract with China) because the Albanian air force is moving to a helicopter force.
For the T/A-50, while the ROK doesn’t have a client list, the US does. If the US markets the Golden Eagle, it will have access to smaller US clients like Guatemala, El Salvador, the Phillipines. But the major US clients would buy high end US machines like the F-16 block 60s and the JSF.
The SD-10 will be a huge factor. It can tip things in the FC-1’s favor even for potential F-16 users if the US decides not to release the AMRAAM for
whatever reason to a particular country.
Egypt might be a possible case in point. If US decides not to allow the AMRAAM into its inventory (and I can’t see how Israel wouldn’t fight to stop this if possible), it might buy the FC-1 just for the SD-10 and ARH AAM capability.
Also, another advantage for the FC-1 is that the Chinese could sell entire production lines like they did with the K-8. This will help them in countries like Egypt and Iran who want an indigenous manufacturing capability. The T/A-50, otoh, will require US approval.
GoldenDragonmixtex, srbin..
if you two do not mind, I will create a seperate thread on this. My intention was more towards operation costs and competitiveness of the new light fighters (FC-1, Golden Eagle, etc) vs existing ones like earlier F-16s and F-5Es, etc.
Please do. It would be a very interesting thread and I’ll throw my cents in 😀
As for third world.. I don’t really like the term because it’s too broad.. most countries use the terms such as NEC (newly exporting countries) to classify 3rd world countries that are not quite underdeveloped but not on the same scale of development as say the US, etc.. examples would be Malaysia and S. Africa which obviously can afford gripens. But if in reference to sub-saharan africa..that is a different story.
The more common term is NICs, Newly Industrialized Countries, which like Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore have per capita income pretty much on par with any country in Europe. And similar populations (between 3 and 30 million people) to many European states.
The ones that have decided to operate large air arms, S Korea and Taiwan, have massive air forces that could give any European force up to and including Germany and the UK a serious run for the money if not an outright beating. You are talking over 400 bvr armed fighters on Taiwan. And 150 AMRAAMed F-16s in the ROKAF with F-15Ks coming. Both with US training. Singapore’s is smaller but pretty potent.
Though part of the third world by tradition (3rd World was coined in the early 1960s), they actually throw the whole term out of whack.
Similar logic could be applied to the large S American countries like Argentina, Chile, Mexico and especially Brazil who have per capita income that are very high compared to most of the others in the “third world.” If they so chose, they would end up with very large air forces.
Yeah, the “third world” term is too imprecise to be really useful.
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