GoldenDragonOriginally posted by GarryB
“Any declaration of independence would see an emptying of wealth from Taiwan as firms flee.”
It would also isolate the Chinese from the US and the West even further and may bring about interference by the US.
Isolate the Chinese or Taiwanese?
An unilateral declaration by Taiwan would probably isolate Taiwan from the US as Bush’s recent reactions showed.
Unless, the US feels that Taiwan can declare a war of independence with US troops, it would most certainly lead to a less enthusiatic US reaction especially if China reacts mainly with economic measures.
An unilateral declaration would also lead to mass exodus of firms and people who still feel Chinese from Taiwan. It could also lead to war between those on Taiwan who feel themselves part of the Chinese world and those who don’t.
There would also be a sundering of ties from all the Overseas Chinese. Most of the Chinese-Americans including many anti-Communist, pro-KMT members would turn their back on Taiwan shoud they declare independent.
It is truely sad when people focus more on their differences than what makes them alike.
The very issue of Taiwan is that the Chinese concentrate on the commonality while the Taiwanese independent activists concentrate on the differences. Many Taiwanese including the 500,000 to 1,000,000 who are living and working in China at any given moment do concentrate on the commonality of language and culture.
I doubt that there is much chance of war actually which is why China is willing to live with the comparative inferiority of the monkeyized Russian crap it currently owns.
GoldenDragonOriginally posted by GarryB
” The military is the lowest priority of Chinese Four Modernizations.”
And if it really were the lowest priority how long before a Taiwanese government tries to declare independance?
The Four Modernizations were declared by Deng Xiaopeng in 1979. The key focus is to be on the economy with agriculture, industry and science and technology above the military.
China’s declared policy was a minimal defense with most of its resources going to building a consumer society. China’s economy today is many times the size of the USSR’s. It’s trade is infinitely larger. But it’s military in forms of nuclear weapons, tanks and naval ship tonnage is a fraction of the USSR.
So if the Taiwanese want to declare independence they could do it in the next several years.
In fact, there are several articles in pro-independent newspapers that said Taiwan should declare before the 2008 Olympics with a conservative US Congress and probably presidency willing to let American blood be spilt for Taiwan. There was a reason why Bush declared a warning shot on Chen a few weeks ago not to push this too far. Bush sounded like he didn’t want a Taiwanese president to be the one to decide when and where to use US troops 😀
With China’s crappy Russian weapons and Americans seemingly willing to intercede and die on their behalf, Taiwan does have a good set of odds and that’s why they are pushing the referendums and threatening to declare independence.
The thing holding the Taiwan Independence folks back is the fear of catastrophic economic damage even if China never fires a shot and the real possibility of civil war. There are still a good amount of people on Taiwan that still feel part of the Chinese world.
Any declaration of independence would see an emptying of wealth from Taiwan as firms flee.
GoldenDragonOriginally posted by PLA
>>>The J-8F/G/H are the currently the lead items. These are not discussed in detail because they are still considered national security issues. But the author said they are far better than the FC-1 (no comparision against the J-10 because the J-10 doesn’t officially exist )Isn’t any plane with decent avionic set, radar and weapons better then the FC1 at this moment (which is nothing more then a test)?:D
Actually no 😀 The FC-1 is current poster child for the Chinese military aviation industry. It has more press than any other product out there.
Look at the news stories posted in the FC-1 pictures and discussion thread. No other Chinese plane had ever gotten this kind of attention and the heavy focus on the youth of the design team and the new production methods it employed.
So everything is compared to the FC-1. It is really considered a new standard in China, at least publicly anyways since there is no official comparision to the J-10.
So for people (Shenyang supporters) to say that the J-8F/G/H is better than the FC-1, it is already acknowledging the FC-1 as a standard, as a measure.
Whether those J-8 variants are actually better only time will tell but the truth is those come from a much older design.
Shenyang, Chengdu and other military aircraft makers like Xian are all part of AVIC I. AVIC II is mostly civilian. The companies in each grouping have the same parent and get some funding from them. But they are in direct competition with each other.
If they don’t produce, money from the parent would not be forthcoming.
The reason China has so many projects is because of this competition. Every firm is attempting to save its lines and its jobs. China has massive overcapacity in aircraft manufacture.
But you can see how certain companies are far more nimble in the new environment than others. CAC and HAIC (Hongdu) seems in ascendant while SAC looks mired in old politics and methods.
No one produces the Su-30.
The J-11 project itself is a tie to the past, not the future. When the older officials retire, the new generation educated in the US, Europe, Hong Kong, Japan, etc. in the 1980s and 90s would have even less attraction to Russian technology.
SAC’s J-12 or the J-11B indeginization programs have better work or else I doubt even its political connections could save it.
GoldenDragonOriginally posted by zheng1980
I think GD is right about Russian exporting downgraded stuff, but they are not the only ones, US was trying to sell F-16-79 to China before the 89 incident. The Su-27 was only considered when US cancelled the peace pearl program to upgrad the J-8IIs.
China was also looking at the Harrier at that point too. They didn’t want Russian. When there is competition, China goes with western. Russian stuff is crap. Blaming the pilots for 0-100s is idiotic. There should be at least a few kills. But being blanked, being shutout in hundreds of engagement points to severe inferiority.
The Flanker has shot down nothing except Mig-29s and Mig is synonomous with the word “target” in the modern history of aerial warfare.
The problem is, although we know we are recieving downgraded stuff, they are still better than what we had in the early nineties.
It’s true and this exactly what I’ve said. It’s crap but the Chinese have no other option.
Actually, the real Chinese option is to simply concentrate on the economy. A war over Taiwan would involve economic pressure first because outright war would mean American massacre of China’s crappy Russian equipment. The military is the lowest priority of Chinese Four Modernizations.
Economically, Taiwan would be devastated in any outright hostilities with China even if China never fired a shot since denial of access to the Chinese market (Taiwan’s largest export destination and surplus) would bring down the Taiwanese economy. But that’s outside the scope of this discussion.
GoldenDragonOriginally posted by Arthur
GD,
Apart from large numbers of tankers and refuellable aircraft, the Backfire might be the only way for the PLAAF to employ offensive airpower in a conflict with India at all.
Gathering offensive firepower on that front is the least of China’s worries. Any possible payoff there would be worth less than the money paid out for old crappy and traditionally downgraded already-inferior Russian aircraft.
Taiwan is the main objective whether economic, political or military. Japan and the US are the militaries the PLAN and PLAAF have to plan for. The subcontinent is simply irrelevant in Chinese affairs (Pakistan being more important as an entry to Central Asia and a bulwark against Russia. Participation in the Afghanistan war against the Russians which China saw as encirclement being the most important during 1980s.)
And don’t stare yourself to blindly on the monkey-version thing. That was something from the days when Soviet aircraft were still given to allies/friendly countries/useable countries. Today, Russian aircraft are sold to make money, and somehow exporting monkey versions isn’t the right way to do so.
The Chinese military market today is not substantially different from the Russian clients of bygone day. There is no competition. The SU-27SKs were only bought after the Western embargo of 1989. If that had not happened then there would have been no Su-27 contract. It was a last resort.
The only think monkey-like about the Su-27SK i can think of is the ECM gear which was considered to be of to great strategic importance.
The SU-27SK is monkeyized with downgraded avionics, radar, ECM suite and downgraded weapons. The contract was restrictive where Flankers muct be sent back and overhauled in Russia.
GoldenDragonInteresting tactically. But strategically, the subcontinent is simply not worth buying a bunch of overpriced, downgraded Tu-22 “monkey” versions for.
China’s threat radar is pretty much full with the US, Japan, the Korean Peninsula and, most importantly, Taiwan. The rest is pretty much irrelevant, especially the other side of the naturally defensive Himalyas. There are only so many assets you can afford and allocate. And China isn’t the one with a $400 billion dollar budget.
GoldenDragonOriginally posted by Arthur
What’s the problem with somebody making an error, or not knowing something completely? We’re here on a public forum not only to debate and have fun but (IMHO) also to help others with an interest matching our own. Now what’s wrong if you can help someone expanding his knowledge (and hence his base of opinion)?
There are those who’ve shown they want to learn and those who simply want to perpetuate stereotypes. I reply to the first and soon learn to ignore the second.
As far as debating and having fun here, I wholeheartedly agree 😀
I do a lot of both.
GoldenDragon,
Thanks for that.
And thank you for imparting knowledge on the barbarians and idiots 😀
GoldenDragonCustomers’s as monkey’s uncles
Here’s a nice little thingy from Mike Spick’s The Illustrated Directory of Fighters ( illustrated because I like pictures 😀 ) on Russian practices involving exports:
A downgraged Mig-21PF, known as a “monkey” variant, was produced for export. This was the Mig-21FL. It had the inferior R-2L radar, and the same powerplant as the [earlier model] Mig-21F.
Other “monkey” variants were exported …
The Su-27SK is a “monkey” version with downgraded avionics fit. This well known within Chinese circles and is one of the leading reasons for the indigenization program. But again, China has no choice because of the embargo.
When it comes to civilian markets from canned peas to airliners where there are no embargos, China would rather work with countries like Brazil than the Russians. That pretty much speaks volumes.
GoldenDragonOriginally posted by Hydropod
There is no Chinese official designation of J-2, J-4 or CJ-3 . Those are all made up by people who dont know how designation naming worked. ALL chinese plane’s starts from “5”. IE: J-5, H-5, Y-5,Q-5,CJ-5…and the list goes on. I alsways chuckle when I see people say things like PLAAF J-4, because they dont exist. They all start from 5 because 5 is the same sound as ÎÞ(nothing) pronounced WU. This is suggested by Mao himself to show chinese aviation industries developed from ÎÞ (nothing) to what it had achieved £¨´ÓÎÞµ½ÓУ©.
P.S. Another chinese plane that is quite succesful and is still in service today: SH-5 seaboats
EDIT: P.P.S: Another chinese development I had nearly forgotten: Y-12 light transports.:D
There is a huge difference between people like Arthur and Rick though both have said things that Chinese nationalists don’t want to hear and blabbering young idiots like Erez (whom I do like in spite of harsh words – anyone who can 3D model is worth saving from a life of bigotry) and older fools who simply see China as a stereotype.
Arthur and Rick actually put time and effort into understanding the industry. The other idiots don’t and simply throw in stereotypes.
When a person mentions stupidities like the J-2 and J-4 for the purpose of denigrating then the idiot’s not worth responding to.
GoldenDragonIt’s a site set up by people from Vortex’s end of the US political spectrum.
Alway lumping China in with the Evil Empire.
GoldenDragonOne more thing
Originally posted by dirtyharry
Erez:Dont be upset by those reckless mannered opinions,keep coming & posting to J10 thread, we are much happy to read your post.
By the way, Chinese people were much welcome Israelis. And our country welcome your country’s president “Mr Katsav”just visited China two weeks ago! And China welcome Israelis leader!
DirtyHarry. Don’t talk like a Chinese communist party representative. It is anachronistic and silly.
Don’t ever repeat something as stupid as “our country welcome your country’s president Mr Katsav” again.
This is an absolute embarassment. Erez doesn’t represent the Israeli people or government. He is an individual racist and in fact has repeatedly hinted that the Israeli government is lying to the US by selling the Lavi to China when it had stated outright that it hasn’t.
So don’t worry about ruining the relation between Israel and China because I and others have pointed Erez’s youthful idiocy.
And brush up on your English 😀
GoldenDragonfor archival purposes
GoldenDragonRe: Gentlemen please be gentle!
Originally posted by dirtyharry
The J10 was inherriated from Lavi? GOOD! we can get rid of those AWFUL Russian stuffs,we are much appreciated!Regards
One, I agree we should get rid of the awful Russian stuff.
Two, Erez continually add that the Chinese could not do anything except copy even when the evidence from the Israeli government said there is no connection to the Lavi.
He is an insidious racist, though young.
But I have already warned him for asserting that Jews have lied and backstabbed the US by lying that they have not sold the Lavi to China and also for asserting that the Chinese are capable of nothing but copying.
If you are okay with Erez saying that the Chinese are incapable then that is only you and not me.
I have to confess my English was terrible made you missed my meaning. Thanks reply!
Maybe your English is too terrible to comprehend the sly, sneaky tone of Erez’s racism.
Sorry, but I will not allow that little racist to grow up into a big racist without verbally beating some sense into him.
And to you, Erez, it is for your own good to learn that your racism will not be tolerated.
GoldenDragonYou mean you GOT us. The Chinese are paying you BILLIONS for degraded inferior crap 😀
So good work, Russkie 😀
GoldenDragonIdiots
Read what I wrote, numbnuts, Russian crap is inferior to Western aircraft. I’ve no comment on them being inferior to current Chinese products. If they were than China wouldn’t be buying them.
China buys Russian because it is embargoed from buying western. Furthermore, the Russian machine when exported is degraded further from its already inferior abilities.
Where China is today? It is decisively inferior to China’s major rivals: Japan, Taiwan and the US, all of whom are armed with US/western planes.
Sign In
