If I just looked at the total cost comparison I would have concerns too. But, I would also want to know WHY the cost increased.

1. The biggest cause in price increase is slashing of the number of aircraft built. The FY2012 estimate in Feb 2008 was for 42 F-35A units (out of a total 82 F-35A/B/C builds). FY2012 has been reduced to 19 F-35As (out of a total of 32 F-35A/B/C builds).

This is a drop of 55% in the F-35As and a 61% reduction in overall F-35 builds. Anyone who thinks that when you slash a build year by that amount and STILL expect the price not to change dramatically is a fool.

2. In the Feb 2008 estimate the non-plane related (Wep System – Flyaway cost) was ~$6 million (5.5% of total cost). In the FY2012 docs this segment rose to ~$41.5 million which now accounts for 21.5% of the total cost. These costs are most likely related to the buildup of training units as the largest part of this cost is Airframe/Engine/Avionics PGSE, Peculiar Training Equipment, & Other ILS.

3. Three years of inflation would account for about 4-5% change in price.

You do realize that estimates for FY12 procurement have actually exploded from estimates made back in 2008 for FY12? What would Congress have done back in 2008 if they only knew what the costs for FY12 would actually be??

Spud, I’m sorry but F-35 cost estimates have exploded in cost estimates EVERY YEAR, from Lot 1 LRIP. Please give us one year where original estimates have come in less than the final cost. Please be more genuine on your cost related arguments.

What’s your point?

I am showing you what the F-35A has actually cost (flyaway) from LRIP1-5. In each LRIP, the F-35 cost dropped from 10-20 million. In LRIP4 it came in at $126.8 (flyaway). For some reason you think that this consistent price drop will somehow come to a halt and that the F-35A will only drop 2-3 million per year. That is ignoring the F-35’s price history.

We can put this to rest, the exact cost of the F-135 for LRIP IV was made public today, 14,99 million US$. The objective cost for the F-35A in LRIP IV is precisely 126,6 million US$, slightly less than the number in the Canadian report (I wonder if they are not counting has acquisition costs the 551 million US$ that Canada has already spent in R&D).

Cheers

🙂 I was only 2 million off.

Again, still cheaper than what that Canadian report says will be the AVEREAGE FY2015-FY2020 buy ($128.8 mil).

The engine will be well under the $17 million it was estimated to cost last year. The exact engine price has not been specified and did not make it into the FY2012 budget docs.

It was reported to be 16% lower than LRIP3 engine prices, which would make the LRIP4 engines for the F-35A cost about $13 million each. This puts the total Rec Flyaway LRIP4 F-35A at about $124 million.

This, btw, is cheaper than what that Canadian report claimed would be the 2014-2020 F-35A flyaway price ($128.8 million).

JSF Grounded For Generator Failure, Leak By Colin Clark Friday, March 11th, 2011

http://www.dodbuzz.com/2011/03/11/jsf-grounded-for-generator-failure-leak/#IDComment134325123

“…The grounding appears to have occurred because of the potential for loss of control posed by such a combination. The F-35’s flight control surfaces are controlled by electro-hydrostatic actuators made by Moog. If they don’t have power then the pilot can lose control. In this case, the back-up power system — the Integrated Power Package which also serves as the starter and air conditioner — kicked in as designed, allowing the pilot to return to base.

Kent noted that the F-35 has now flown 657 flights and this appears to be the first time a flight has encountered this problem. “Once the cause is known, the appropriate repairs and improvements will be made before flight operations resume,” he said.”

That Canadian report got the cost of the F-35A so wrong that they think it will cost more than what we just signed (LRIP4) for, and their deliveries don’t start till 2016.

The report is very clear, they based their report on 4th gen costs & weight growth, not what the F-35 has been actually costing.

hehe That Canadian report based the cost of the F-35 on it’s WEIGHT, not on what it has or will cost.

Cost forecast
The PBO forecasted the acquisition and long-term sustainment costs using a ‘top-down’ model. This model estimates cost by reference to historical trends of previous fighter/strike aircraft and key cost drivers. The PBO engaged a specialist firm to undertake this modelling (see Note to Reader on page 2).

There has been an exponential increase in the cost to manufacture one kilogram of fighter jet over the last six decades. This cost has risen from under US$ 1,000/kg in 1950 to approximately US$ 10,000/kg today (both in 2009 dollars). This represents a real annual rate of increase of approximately 3.5%. [10]

During the same period, the average weight of jet fighter aircraft has increased by about 0.5% per year. Given this, the cost of fighter aircraft has increased 4% per year in real terms since 1950—doubling roughly every 18 years.

Relying on these historical trends and applicable cost drivers, the PBO was able to forecast a total ownership cost of approximately US$ 29.3 billion for the 65 aircraft over a 30-year period. This includes both acquisition and long-term sustainment costs and reflects a 75% confidence interval