In the coming years IAFs ODL (Operational Data Link) will allow all its air assets to communicate with each other and ground based surveilance/defences. Imagine non emitting Rafales sneaking behind the Super 30s making use of the Su 30s larger radars, sharing SPECTRA information with Su 30 etc.

MM Rafale.

Only leaks but I won’t dismiss them.

This somewhat throwaway comment has sparked quite some discussion. Would you care to supply the source of your assertation?

http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2012/01/31/dassault-parvient-enfin-a-exporter-ses-rafale_1636901_3234.html

look at the comments as well.

http://www.liberation.fr/economie/01022387046-reactions-sur-dassault-va-vendre-126-rafales-a-l-inde

That theory failed the Litmus test last time around.

That’s because you’re looking at numbers on paper rather than looking at how real wars (and fights in general) tend to pan out. Equipment is important, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. What plane is better isn’t going to make much of a difference in a war between India and Pakistan. Hopefully we won’t have to see how things work out in reality, it’s never pretty. The other reason you may not follow the logic of course is that it you don’t want to hear anything that you don’t like, shocking 😎

Partially that, yes, but also the simple fact that the Indians will be the majority force and will be having to take more care not to blast each other. For the Pakistanis, assuming they are losing from the outset, the stakes are much higher and so risks are worth taking, which may or may not pay off.

You are right on some counts but you are forgetting the deterrent value of a stronger Air Force equipped with Rafales with a license from the French to use it in whatever role necessary including Nuclear Strike

India has one thing going for her as well, she is perfectly happy with the borders as it is on the West and on the East so the onus is on Pak/China to make the first move not India.

Ain’t Brazil wanting an assembly line for a much smaller order than 80 ?

IMO the 80 may well be Gripens, IAFs insurance against LCA delays/failure.

Ok, so what does this mean for the regional balance in airpower between China and India? Are we likely to see some form of response from China over the next few years or is it a negligible impact on the regional balance?

I don’t think its going to be negligible. Finally India has got something that has a good chance of penetrating Chinese Air Defenses along the Tibetan border in case of a localised War.

But via-vis Pakistan this is a big thing if India can get these planes inducted at a decent pace I can’t see PAF lasting more than a few days in a conflict.

Yeah … the aircraft that’s unnecessary on account of LCA vs. the aircraft that’s unnecessary on account of AMCA. Tough call that one.

You are right at this point it makes sense to order more Rafale. But if the news is true that is not happening in that case one could assume two things.

1. India want to buy a U.S jet to please Uncle Sam.

2. A cheaper aircraft to keep things in balance, as obligatory pointed out the F 414 is already being ordered, Meteor can be used with Rafale as well so it may not be a logistical Nightmare to order 80 Gripen.

3. If that part of the news is true, Rafale and Eurofighter won’t be considered for the follow on order.