LokeI disagree about Gripen’s chances in Belgium and Canada — it is much less than far fetched. Both are NATO countries; in addition Canada is F-35 partner; and even if the current PM is “against” the F-35 (for whatever reason) there is no doubt they will purchase an American a/c. Thus the F-16 has a bigger chance of being accepted in Canada than the Gripen.
For Belgium there is a clos collaboration with Holland; in addition there is the “nuke requirement” which is not expressed clearly but nevertheless it’s there. And again, Belgium is a NATO country and will prefer to fly what most other NATO countries will use.
For Finland Gripen’s chances are perhaps slightly above zero, but no by much (1-2%?). Thus very close to zero. Since the cost of F-35 is dropping and will keep dropping there will probably not be much cost benefit of purchasing Gripen instead of F-35, in particular when taking into account that Gripen will not offer the same “comprehensive” solution as F-35. You would need some extra assets to reach the same capability level. Also, the F-35 is bigger and has longer range, and longer-ranged sensors thus you probably need X+Y Gripen to do what X F-35 can do. As stated previously Sweden will have to supplement the Gripen with other assets and how will they do that without losing money on the deal (and without losing the deal)?
Saab should concentrate on countries where F-35 is an unlikely contender; e.g., India, Malaysia, Philipines, Indonesia, South America, Switzerland, Austria. A few years down the line perhaps also some African countries.
LokeI thought the Typhoon flew with “combat load”, at least on some airshows?
Loke“Any aircraft, including planes and drones belonging to the international coalition operating west of the Euphrates river, will be tracked by Russian anti-aircraft forces in the sky and on the ground and treated as targets,” the Russian defence ministry said.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-40329036
Perhaps we will soon see the F-35 operating in the area? Or will they stick to the F-22?
I hope this will not escalate any further… Does not look good at the moment.
Lokefind the Canada effort particularly puzzling. Outside of a few goofballs with blogs nobody thinks the Gripen would be anything but an absolutely nutty choice for Canada.
I agree — OTOH one could argue that ordering 18 SH as a “stop gap” is also an absolutely nutty idea, and still, that is what they planned on doing (at least until Boeing started accusing the Canadians for subsidizing Bombardier…).
LokeStudies are already being done to consider the successor to the Gripen, which “will be a significant change,” he said. There needs to be a “community of thinkers,” who will consider factors beyond artificial intelligence and big data.
http://www.defensenews.com/articles/sweden-could-move-ahead-this-summer-on-trainer-competition
LokeThey, along with every other weapon & fighter manufacturer needs to read the writing on the wall. It spells “UAI”. NATO has their own version called NUAI.
Since this is the Gripen thread:
The project has attracted the attention of many of NATO’s key air forces. Aside from Canada, which is leading the effort, NATO nations Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Turkey and the US are involved, plus nonmember Sweden…
So perhaps Gripen E will have this interface?
LokeEven as Saab celebrates the first flight of its JAS 39 Gripen E-series aircraft, the bulk of its near-term international sales opportunities center around the in-production C/D model.
The aircraft manufacturer says that three sales opportunities are on the near horizon: new C-models for Botswana in Africa and for NATO members Slovakia and Bulgaria in Eastern Europe.
Elsewhere, Saab is offering either the Gripen C/D or E/F, depending on budget and capability, to Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Columbia, Finland, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Switzerland.
Read more: http://aviationweek.com/paris-air-show-2017/saabs-never-surrender-global-gripen-campaign
Belgium, Canada and Finland: chances are 0 (Belgium/Canada) or very close to 0 (Finland) in those competitions. I don’t understand why Saab bothers to stay in them. F-35 is too strong and the price keeps dropping.
LokeClearing the architecture before flight should speed the test program as new functionality can be added and tested without having to be re-qualified as successive iterations of the basic architecture are introduced. Based on RTCA 1788/C civilian standards, the DIMA avionics architecture allows developers to concentrate on software functions without having to take into account how they might affect the aircraft’s systems–in much the same way as app developers can plug in functionality to smartphones. Not only does this speed the pace of initial development, but in the future it will permit the rapid insertion of new technology and functionality without the need to re-qualify flight-critical systems every time.
First deliveries of production aircraft are due in 2019. Initial aircraft for Sweden will have the MS21 software load that provides a basic air-to-air fighter capability, but by the end of 2023 the first true multi-role squadron with the full-specification MS22 software is scheduled to become operational. The Swedish air force plans to have all six of its fighter squadrons operating 60 Gripen Es with MS22 by 2026.
LokeThe US has (unfortunately) from time to time worked with various dubious organizations in different parts of the world to reach a specific objective. This does not mean that the US is embracing the long-term goal of that organization. It’s just the “enemy of my enemy” thingy.
I also don’t think Turkey has completely clean hands in this respect.
LokeNot as agile as the Super Hornet nor as fast as the Typhoon? Don’t you believe it, says Lockheed Martin test pilot Billie Flynn. He will put the F-35A through its paces at Le Bourget this week, proving that the aircraft is more maneuverable than any he has flown, he says, including Boeing’s F/A-18, the Eurofighter, and his own company’s F-16 Viper.
“After 10 years since first flight, with our first opportunity to demonstrate the capabilities and the maneuverability of the F-35, we are going to crush years of misinformation about what this aircraft is capable of doing,” Flynn said in an interview with Aviation Week.
The F-35’s maneuverability is all the more impressive because, unlike the F-16s that perform at air shows, the Joint Strike Fighter flying the demonstration this week is fully combat-ready. Flynn’s F-35A will move easily through complex aerial maneuvers loaded with everything it needs to go to war.
So finally everybody will see that the F-35 is no slouch after all — in addition to great kinematic performance there is also the stealth, the sensors, and the sensor fusion, and the data links, and the price that is finally getting down to acceptable levels….
Only those who cannot get the F-35 will consider anything else… why pay more and get much less?
LokeConsolidating fighter manufacturing is a noble vision – but is it one that makes practical sense?
As seen during ambitious initiatives over the past few years, such as on the pan-European Neuron unmanned combat air vehicle demonstrator and the Anglo-French future combat air system, manufacturers are willing and able to work together… right up to the point where someone has to give up work to a foreign partner. Would Airbus sacrifice a Spanish final assembly line for a future type, or France export opportunities, for the greater good of the continent as a whole?
Having the Rafale and Typhoon go head-to-head – and in competition with Saab’s single-engined Gripen in some cases – is good for Europe, and for the industry champions in all those nations which want to retain vital skills and national control over their combat assets. One may triumph in Egyptian and Indian contests in part due to industrial heritage or geopolitical influence, while the other can win in Gulf states such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia for the very same reasons. It is by no means certain that a combined entity would win both.
Perhaps the Paris air show will offer an indication of France’s response to Alonso’s call to join formation on future fighters. But with the Rafale’s production backlog currently stretching beyond that of the Typhoon, it would seem unlikely that it would decide to apply full afterburners just now.
Read more: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/opinion-dont-bet-on-dassault-joining-euro-fighter-438272/
LokeSweden reports Tu-160 in the Baltic Sea today:
http://www.forsvarsmakten.se/sv/aktuellt/2017/06/incidentjakten-overvakade-rysk-flygning/
However the Finnish AF reports several other Russian planes in the air:
including a Ilyushin Il-22 and a Beriev A-50.
I wonder — a coincidence that this happens when Gripen E is executing it’s first flight…!?
LokeIf you do that you kill the other two bidders that don’t get chosen and the corresponding skill set in the corresponding countries.
What countries?
The UK is leaving the EU.
Welcome to the United States of Europe.
LokeRafale and Typhoon will be more expensive than the F-35, at least for the time point when Belgium is ready to order…
Only Gripen will be able to compete on cost, but it is a lightweight 4.5 gen fighter and most likely will not be able to meet the specifications of the Belgian air force which seems tailormade for the F-35 (this is why Boeing dropped out already, I am surprised the other three are still in the race, maybe just to get some publicity?).
LokeCongratulations to Saab and Sweden!
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