I think it will come down to the F-18 vs the Typhoon. I suspect that the IAF will prefer the Typhoon but MOD and the Finance Ministry will prefer the F-18 from a political and financial viewpoint. Will be interesting to see which wins out. My money is on the Typhoon as I don’t see the US giving TOT or source codes etc. for the AESA radar and the EF engine can be used for Tejas Mk 2. Gripen is the dark horse that may yet spring a surprise.

Sounds very sensible to me, although the question remains if Typhoon is too expensive 🙂

What made you eliminate the Rafale?

AFAIK AIF liked the Mirage quite a lot.

General Juniti Saito says, Rafale will be chosen

http://oglobo.globo.com/pais/mat/2010/02/23/comandante-da-fab-espera-decisao-sobre-cacas-ate-fim-de-marco-915919513.asp

Well, that’s not exactly what he says — however what he says is that the air force will fully accept Rafale if it’s chosen.

“The three aircraft will serve well the Air Force, I tell you,” said Saito. Information disseminated by the press recently realized that the Air Force has a preference for the Gripen NG, which is the cheapest of the three models that offer greater participation by Brazilian is a project still under development.

I’d say it’s now 95% probability of a Rafale win in Brazil. Also note that the above is probably also linked to this:

http://www.ttu.fr/francais/Articles/Industrie%20%26%20materiels/brasdeferbresil.html

The tempo of delivery seems to be one of the key factors of decision makers in the Brazilian Air Force (FAB) and a French offer parallel with the delivery of Mirage 2000-9 from UAE Abu Dhabil, offering a speedier modernization means the FAB would join the military to the French solution.

I suspect one of the main reasons FAB was sceptical about Rafale was the price — now, if they can combine 60 Mirage 2000 with,a lower number of Rafale it may become more feasible to fit into their budgets.

Now Saab should offer 60 Gripen C/D to a very good price in addition to the Gripen NG… although I think it will not help. The combination of politics + the cheap Mirage 2000 will most likely win this for France now.

All these claims and counter claims are at the root of almost every territorial dispute. If those disputing the rights of the incumbent power have to go back 100 years or more to legitimise their claim then they should find something better and more constructive to devote their national energies to.

I am sick of historical claims, historical disputes, and historical apologies. We are living in the 21st century and the past is past. Of course we should be aware of it and learn from it but not hark back to it to try to change what we have now.

good point — should we suggest 100 years as a limit?

So if country A occupy land area B belonging to country C and manage to hang on to it for 100 years then country C lose all rights to it?

as I understand it Argentina is trying to gather enough support from the South American and Caribbean nations to put something to the UN.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8529605.stm

What is Brazil’s position on the Falklands issue?

The Rafale is too expensive if we consider the only conflict hypothesis Argentina has is the Malvinas / Falklands one, and Argentina is not seeking a war with England by know. The only possibility is an escalate of the conflict by England.
The Flanker is a good option, but the FAA officials are not interested on Russian weapons, they are looking for F-16s or Mirage 2000, but until now, the government is not interested on spending money on fighters. Almost for sure the next government will spend money on new planes, but this will be by 2012 and fighters will come after other things are fixed, as for example, restore the spares stocks, put all the existing planes in service, modernize others and buy or build new weapons.
One of the main advantages of the Flanker is its range, because Argentina’s mainland is 5,000km long and 1,100 km wide.

Although less range than the Flanker, perhaps Gripen NG could be a contender (assuming that Brazil, against all odds, actually buy it!).

1300 km radius with 30 minutes on-station in a2a config with one drop tank is not too bad. Maintanance costs will be much lower than for either F-16 or Mirage. OTOH it will of course be more expensive than second-hand planes…

Seems clear to me that if Argentina wants to ever get the Falklands back they should learn some lessons from the Russkies and Chinese… :diablo:

The first step would be to get Argentinians on the island. Start a sneaky immigration program that will gradually build up the presence of (civilian) Argentinians on the Islands, doing all kinds of work (sheep herding, fishing, or whatever). After 50 years of this, the number of Argentinians may become so large that a referendum could lead to the Falklands voting to “integrate” with Argenita… Or alternatively, Argentina could claim a more legimitate reason to “save our citizens” if the UK still refuse to give up the islands. And by having a large number of Argentitians on the island it could become easier to sabotage e.g. the 4 a/c on the ground….

And to shoot down this idea myself: Argentina probably don’t have the long-term planning skills to do such a thing; even if they did they would face another problem; the Argentinians that emigrated would after a while realize that they would be better of being part of the UK and therefore denounce Argentinian citizenship and become true “islander” :diablo: (Ref. the situation Marocco is facing in Western Sahara…)

Hammer Time!

@Hammer:

do you consider this to be a reliable source, or just some piece of disinformation — please note the highlighted text:

http://www.mre.gov.br/portugues/noticiario/nacional/selecao_detalhe3.asp?ID_RESENHA=667366

In addition to having been in last place in the technical evaluation of the Brazilian Air Force, which will operate the new fighters at least the next 30 years, the French Rafale from Dassault, was not considered the best in any of the seven final criteria.
The French jet was appointed as the worst option in these five criteria: technical, logistical, technological compensation / commercial, employment generation and price.
The winner, the Gripen NG was considered better in four requirements: technical, technology transfer, employment generation and price.

I thought this was in the overall evaluation, which included cost and offset figures.

EDIT:

See here:
http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/showthread.php?t=96345
post #26.

http://www.mre.gov.br/portugues/noticiario/nacional/selecao_detalhe3.asp?ID_RESENHA=667366

In addition to having been in last place in the technical evaluation of the Brazilian Air Force, which will operate the new fighters at least the next 30 years, the French Rafale from Dassault, was not considered the best in any of the seven final criteria.
The French jet was appointed as the worst option in these five criteria: technical, logistical, technological compensation / commercial, employment generation and price.
The winner, the Gripen NG was considered better in four requirements: technical, technology transfer, employment generation and price.