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Loke

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Viewing 15 posts - 1,006 through 1,020 (of 3,001 total)
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  • in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2196882
    Loke
    Participant

    Budget is between 6-10 billion and when Finland buys F-35’s the A model is probably one of the cheapest fighters country can buy (80-100 million). Eurocanards are only getting more expensive and air force personnel are heavily against purchasing two different fighters since it increases cost of training, etc. Some politicians are saying that Finland should buy to different fighters or only Gripen but our air force leadership clearly disagrees.

    The Swiss air force ranked Rafale first; Typhoon second, and Gripen third. Due to budget constraints they had to accept Gripen.

    I would not be surprised if the Finnish air force ended up with the same order, but with F-35 ahead of Rafale. Rafale and Typhoon will be too expensive (and less capable than F-35) so will therefore not make any sense. So it will be between the F-35, the SH, and Gripen E. Politics, costs, and capabilities (probably in that order) will decide who will win, is my guess.

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2196885
    Loke
    Participant

    Everything required to bridge the gap with its larger siblings – increased payload, increased range, AESA, GaN-based EW system, sensor fusion, IRST etc.

    Ah, OK I think I understand what you are trying to say… you talk about the Gripen E development program… (the way you phrased it, it sounded like the Gripen E would be in urgent need for upgrades!)

    India again is a very long shot. They’ve already got two types of cost-effective workhorses in the Tejas and Su-30MKI. The govt. will find it hard to justify a Gripen E acquisition without some sort of competition (SH? Viper?), which will inevitably take years to finalize (MMRCA redux), and is therefore something they’ll want to avoid. The only aircraft that they can justify as a single-vendor purchase is ironically the F-35 itself, offering capabilities (read: stealth) not currently available from other sources.

    I believe the IAF wanted Tejas mk2, not the current mk1; now they are forced to accept mk1a which does not really meet their requirements but they have no choice. Tejas mk2 will take much longer to develop than Gripen E.

    They have already made it clear that they are assessing different options. Since they go for goverment-to-government deals they don’t have to arrange competitions. They want a Western bird so MiG-35 is out; Rafale was too expensive so it’s out; the same is Typhoon. After the latest sales of F-16 to Pakistan, the F-16 is also out.

    That leaves the SH and Gripen NG… Let’s wait and see what happens!

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2196888
    Loke
    Participant

    F-35 is 5 percent of the Norwegian defense budget, and the defense budget is getting a 9.8 percent hike this year too.

    Actually there have been a lot of noise around the F-35 in Norway recently, in particular from the army.

    Due to a weaker Norwegian economy it looks like the Norwegian defence budget will not grow as much as they were hoping for. The F-35 is a major expense the next several years, and to keep that program going, other things have to be cut. In particular it looks like the Norwegian army will be hit. However we may also see reductions in the Norwegian navy. I hope not, in particular I am concerned about the Norwegian submarines, they are a very potent and important part of the Norwegian defence force, it would be tragic if they have to cut it to finance the F-35. We may also not get a substitute for the P3s.

    And of course all our F-35 will be in one base. This is also a concern to me. If there is a surprise attack knocking out the F-35 on the ground, the deterrence effect of the F-35 will suddenly be zero.

    The counter-argument is that our intelligence will be so good that nobody will be able to launch a surprise attack. (no, I am not kidding).

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2196890
    Loke
    Participant

    I think that has been said in the other Gripen threads as well. I believe spitfire say before Dutch were smart to be weary, and given changes to the aircraft itself that was prudent.

    I am curious about the cost to because i have heard Brazil cost is because of factory, but Swiss deal looked to be roughly the same and there was no plan for a factory?

    There are many factors influenzing the price, including:

    * exchange rates
    * the amount of ToT
    * the amount of offsets
    * the specific configuration
    * the amount of support included in the deal
    * the amount of spares

    In addition I wonder if the terms of the Swiss deal were negotiated before Brazil announced they were going to go for Gripen; if so, then I would assume that the contract for the 22 Swiss included quite a lot of R&D costs for Gripen, since Switzerland and Sweden would then basically have to cover the R&D costs.

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2197730
    Loke
    Participant

    Try $94.1 million with the engine. Unit recurring flyaway cost for 2016. Well on course to achieve the target goal (<$85 mil by 2019).

    In fact, if the plan for the block buy goes ahead, they could probably bring the cost in below $80 mil. The Gripen E will of course beat that figure but not by a huge margin, not with all the performance upgrades planned. The F-35 CPFH estimate was about 28% higher than the F-16C/D (in same weight class as the Gripen E), and that’s from when the oil prices were still sky high (and thanks to the shale revolution they’re unlikely to ever go up that high again).

    what are “all the performance upgrades” you are referring to?

    I think it’s difficult to predict Gripen E costs at this point in time; it really depends on how many customers they manage to get by the time Finland is doing the evaluation. Due to Brazil now being a partner in the Gripen project, there is a good chance that several South American countries will go for Gripen E. There are also several opportunities in Asia, of which the biggest would be India. If India decides to go for Gripen, it could change things, in particular when it comes to upgrade costs.

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2197753
    Loke
    Participant

    There is one but it is only used for training the pilots for international missions. It’s not used in the daily activities of the air force. This is unlikely to change in the future.

    My thinking was that if you were to have a credible defence alliance with Finland perhaps you would need a couple of tankers — after all Sweden-Finland covers a quite large land and sea area, and although the Gripen is long-legged in an a2a config, for e.g. an a2g config the range will drop quite a lot.

    Imagine if Finnish Gripen are to support defending south of Sweden; or that Sweden needs to support North East of Finland.

    in reply to: F-35 News and discussion (2016) take III #2197787
    Loke
    Participant

    I agree it sounds strange, OTOH it also sounds a bit strange that the US would not have some “back-door” or something else to allow them at least some control, these are extremely potent weapons.

    Remember what happened in e.g. Iran; The shah bought some very sophisticated fighter jets (at that time) which after the revolution were controlled and operated for quite some time by the new rulers.

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2197794
    Loke
    Participant

    I believe Sweden uses a C130H as a tanker? I may be wrong.

    in reply to: Saab's next generation AEW #2197819
    Loke
    Participant

    Janes’ article on Globaleye:

    http://www.janes.com/article/58158/singapore-airshow-2016-saab-introduces-new-globaleye-aew-c-concept

    (requires registration to access).

    Edit: Seems Aviationweek also has an article for subscribers only; presumably different from the open-access one linked to above(?)

    http://aviationweek.com/defense/globaleye-aewc-intel-aircraft-detailed

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2197827
    Loke
    Participant

    does any of the scandinavian nations operate tankers ?

    Sweden operates a tanker. Norway has access to tankers through NATO.

    in reply to: SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4 #2197837
    Loke
    Participant

    I think you’ve misunderstood the term “bang for the buck”.

    The current and most recent unit cost for the LRIP F-35A is $94.8 million [excluding the engine]. And that’s without any specific national requests. It has gone down from the LRIP 1 prices, as expected, but it’s not close to its target goal.

    The hopeful estimate of $60MUSD per F-35A was quoted at around 3000 A/C being manufactured in total, which included full orders from all expected customers and potential customers. The production rate has been ramped down with 20 A/C aswell. And this is all without experiencing any new problems that might ramp up the price. The costs are going down, I’m not arguing you on that, but to such a level that the F-35 would be cheap to buy, maintain and operate, now that’s a bold claim. Especially since the F-35 is still significantly more expensive to operate than the F-16 and F/A-18.

    Finlands “bang for the buck” is however something still rooted deep within its military structure. This is something the Gripens thrives in. The Gripen has excellent records of low maintenance per flight hour, low operational costs and is yet a fighter with relatively long range, more than capable of covering Finlands needs. Not to mention national cooperation and local industrial benefits that the Finns seem to value highly.

    The Gripen stands well above “a small chance” in Finland.

    No doubt even in 2025 F-35 will still be a rather expensive a/c; however I think the price will come down quite a lot compared to where it is today. The other important factor to consider in the “bang for the bucks” is not just the “bucks” but the “bang”. If they can afford the “right” number of F-35 then it can stand on it’s own without any further support. However if they go for Gripen, then, looking post 2030, I think more is needed; more fighter jets, but also other equipment.

    To be a credible deterrent I think Finland could do the following:

    1. Enter a defence alliance with Sweden
    2. Buy 50-60 Gripen E
    3. Together with Sweden buy and jointly operate 4 Erieye ER
    4. Together with Sweden develop, buy and jointly operate 12 (?) Gripen G; a Gripen “Growler” platform
    5. Together with Sweden operate a few tankers

    If they go for F-35, they could probably drop the Gripen G (which would be quite expensive) and perhaps also drop the Erieyes, and still have a credible deterrent. Which one is cheaper?

    Of course the best deterrent would be to enter NATO; then it does not really matter what they buy, Gripen or F-35 (or the SH).

    But a Swedish-Finnish defence alliance could also offer some deterrent, with 110-120 Gripen E; 4 Erieyes, a few “Growlers”, and a tiny tanker fleet.

    in reply to: F-35 News and discussion (2016) take III #2198572
    Loke
    Participant

    The F35 thrust to weight ratio is too low and the wing too small to permit tactics used with F22s.

    The Russians have been developing L-band radar, which reports suggest can detect a stealth fighter up to 169km away. Stealth was the great technological leap in air combat: the F117 Night Hawk of 1983 made an impressive debut in Baghdad.

    But advances in technology are eating into its advantages. The F35 is also supposed to be stealthy, except when it is carrying external weapons. Reports suggest the Russian infra-red search and track will detect a F35 at 32km.

    The latest Sukhoi Flanker derivative Su35 — with its thrust-vectoring super manoeuvrability — renders obsolete conventional Western fourth-generation fighters that rely on aerodynamic manoeuvring.

    Also, the larger even more powerful Sukhoi PAK FA 50 is close to production.

    Simulations show an F22 can shoot down two Su35s. One Su35 can shoot down 2.4 F35s. And one Su35 can shoot down eight F18 Super Hornets.

    In air combat, most missiles miss due to the high and near instantaneous turn rate that modern fighters are capable of. But the F35 performs poorly at such manoeuvres.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aviation/f35-already-behind-as-russia-leads-arms-race/news-story/1eae5192a7ac96c37a9b0a6a2e6bae8c

    I respectfully disagree with this old pilot on a number of different things… F-35 is probably the best choice for Australia.

    What simulations is he referring to!?

    in reply to: Indian Air Force Thread 20 #2198596
    Loke
    Participant

    This idea I haven’t seen before!

    This week India and Israel were poised to finalize a series of arms deals totaling $3 billion.

    The final package is set to be signed during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel later this year. The deal includes various missile and electronic warfare systems.

    In light of the F-35s massive vulnerabilities and the diminishment of US power in the Middle East and beyond, Netanyahu should view India’s enthusiasm for Israeli systems as an opportunity to end the IAF’s utter dependence on increasingly undependable US systems.

    Instead of going through with the procurement of the 14 additional F-35s, Netanyahu should offer Modi to jointly develop a next generation fighter based on the Lavi.

    http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/COLUMN-ONE-The-IAFs-Achilles-heel-444662

    in reply to: F-35 News and discussion (2016) take III #2198600
    Loke
    Participant

    Last October, Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon asked US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter to provide Israel with a new squadron of F-15s that Israel would outfit with its own electronics systems. Carter reportedly rejected that request as well as one for bunker buster bombs.

    Carter instead insisted that Israel use the supplemental aid to purchase more F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, US-made missile defense systems, and the Osprey V-22 helicopter, which Ya’alon didn’t want.

    The fact that the administration wants Israel to buy more F-35s instead of F-15s is alarming both for what it tells us about America’s commitment to maintaining Israel’s qualitative edge against Iran and for what it tells us about the F-35, which is set to become the IAF’s next generation combat fighter.

    By all accounts, the F-35 is an impressive next generation fighter. But at the same time, as Aaron Lerner from IMRA news aggregation service noted this week, the F-35 suffers from one major weakness that arguably cancels out all of its advantages. That weakness is the F-35’s operational dependence on software laboratories and logistics support computers located in the US.

    In a manner that recalls Apple’s ability to exert perpetual control over all iPhones by making it impossible for them to long function without periodically updating their operating systems, the US has made it impossible for foreign governments to simply purchase F-35s and use them as they see fit.

    As Defense-Aerospace.com reported last November, “All F-35 aircraft operating across the world will have to update their mission data files and their Autonomic Logistic Information System (ALIS) profiles before and after every sortie, to ensure that on-board systems are programmed with the latest available operational data and that ALIS is kept permanently informed of each aircraft’s technical status and maintenance requirements.

    “ALIS can, and has, prevented aircraft taking off because of an incomplete data file,” the report revealed.

    Given the F-35’s dependence on the Internet, such an attack, while directed at the US itself, would also ground the IAF’s main combat fighter.

    The second reason the F-35’s continuous dependence on a US-based logistics system is a critical weakness is that it would be irresponsible of Israel to trust that the US will not abuse its power to undermine and block IAF operations.

    This brings us back to the Pentagon’s insistence that Israel purchase only F-35s and missile defense systems. By giving Israel no option other than purchasing more F-35s, which the Americans control – to the point of being able to ground – even after they are deployed by the IAF, and defensive systems jointly developed with the US and built in the US, the Americans are hollowing out Israel’s ability to operate independently.

    http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/COLUMN-ONE-The-IAFs-Achilles-heel-444662

    in reply to: Saab's next generation AEW #2198611
    Loke
    Participant

    Great article by Bill Sweetman:

    Two years ago, Saab pulled a rabbit out of its hat by announcing that it was on the way to delivering the first production AESA radar based on gallium nitride (GaN) radio-frequency components, the land-mobile Giraffe 4A. GaN radar modules beat gallium arsenide (GaAs) in many ways, but chiefly they are more efficient (so they can produce more power without overheating) and have a wider bandwidth (good for jamming resistance) and lower noise.

    That last attribute is important to Saab’s radar development. When Saab unveiled the Giraffe 4A, engineers touted the “purity” of the new radar’s signal – a measure of how much of the energy is concentrated at the nominal wavelength. With a high-purity signal it is possible to measure very small Doppler shifts and pull smaller echoes out of clutter. The radar can detect targets with very small radar-cross section (RCS) measurements, such as micro-drones and stealthy aircraft.

    The new version restores its range against stealthy targets, against which it offers a 70% range increase or “the same range, against a target one-tenth the size,” a Saab engineer says.

    Read more: http://aviationweek.com/defense/counter-stealth-radar-key-growing-aew-market

Viewing 15 posts - 1,006 through 1,020 (of 3,001 total)