mack8So, any more news or rumours on this front ? Thanks.
mack8Folks, your financial expertise is appreciated, but what the heck is this having to do with PAK-FA again ?! Isn’t it enough that some useless trolls are derailing this topic (and others) already? Please, use the general forum if you want to talk GDP and other such stuff. Thank you.
mack8Those Su-30M2 and Su-27SM3 are dirt cheap, a lot of bang for the bucks. They are only collecting dust from Storage.. much better to assemble them and get something of a capability out of them.
One of the arguments i saw, especially in regards to SM3, is to make room for T-50 production. Depending how many incomplete kits/airframes are still around, they are obviously taking space. As for Su-30M2, i guess after all they will be trainers for Su-35S, they are cheap, ready, available, and the man-machine interface would be pretty similar. Are there pictures of Su-30M2 cockpits by any chance?
mack8Don’t think that would happen mate! The MiG-31 production line has been shut since the early 1990s. On that point, if Iraq wait’s a few years then they might want to order the successor to the MiG-31 sometime around 2020/2025.
Actually, it appears the production line at Nizhni Novgorod is still intact, likely with some unfinished airframes around, not to mention those intended for Syria, R-37 is already offered for export as RVV-BD… so a MiG-31BMQ for Iraq is not that far fetched! 😮
I’d add that the Iraqis would want something like a modernised SU25 for ground attack. Sadly no one is making these anymore ….
Again, not that far fetched either. It seems there are something like 16 Su-25UBM on order from Ulan-Ude, this variant having significant improvements (including a podded radar), so the production capacity is or will shortly be there. Besides in about 2020 the PSSh (Su-25SM successor) should appear, not clear if it’s a further evolved UBM but it’s quite likely it is.
mack8I doubt they would be able to do that, the americans won’t allow them to put Meteor on F-16s, MBDA won’t be willing to integrate Meteor on Su-35 or J-10 etc etc.
Still that’s an interesting force, as will offer as pointed above a multitude of different systems for Iraq’s opponents to counter, especially SD-10 and RVV-SD. Interesting idea about the F-16 being relegated to aggressor role, it makes perfect sense.
I think in the next 10 years the iraqis will be better of to only buy non-critical stuff from the US to keep them happy, like EDAs (APCs, trucks, specialized vehicles and other similar stuff), helicopters like CH-47 and transports like C-17 and C-130J like f.e. India does, useful assets. But as for critical stuff, since the europeans are crazy and obviously they don’t need iraqi money(!), Russia and China and possibly other smaller yet competent produces (Serbia, SK, South Africa etc.) are the choice.
Mind you, if Iraq will have become and increasingly stronger and respectable force, and they will spend increasing sums for equipment and capabilities, at one point surely the europeans will say “screw the yanks, we want a piece of that!”. I mean they were courting Gadaffi and hugging him and all that just so he buys their stuff, iraqis will have far, far more money to spend. And yeah if that happens perhaps the yanks will eventually offer AMRAAM, JDAM and some other stuff , but will still be heavily conditioned and stringed so imo it’s hardly worth it.
Regardless, after 2020 IrAF’s future should be a mixed aquisition of T-50 and J-31, possibly with various western or even indigenous systems/ weapons integrated. It’s really a no brainer, NO ONE , not even the israelis would have anything better in ME then, even if F-35s will be exported in large numbers to ME.
mack8story of our life 🙁
You need someone made of the same clay as Putin. Highly educated, military experience, cold as ice and above all patriot. Find someone like that and in 10 year time all your ME neighbours will s**t bricks! If Saddam had in 1990 over 800 aircraft of all types, 500 helos and 5000 tanks, you surely can again.:)
(actually all the crappy countries of the world- including mine- need someone like Putin…)
mack8You mention Russian VVS and Navy aircraft so not just Russian VVS but also Rusian Naval Aviation? So all vanilla Su27 and Mig29 are to be retired by 2020,surely at least some might remain in service in 2020? Only 30 Tu22M by 2020,that can’t be right,Russian VVS had 93 in service and Russian Navy had 58 in service in Dec 2010 so from 151 Tu22M in service to just 30 that’s to drastic a reduction in number and capability, certainly more can be maintained in service until 2025 when PAKDA can start replenishing the bomber force. Also you forgot Su33,they will not be replaced by Mig29K but will supplement them,Su33 are buing refurbished and modernized at KNAAPO now so they won’t be retired and time soon and should serve Russian Naval aviation for 15+ more years not necceserally on a carrier but maybe shifted to coastal bases and have such tasks as escorting Russian Navy Tu22M for instance.
Also currently there are 31 Su34 and 12 or so Su35 but there should be about 18-20 production Su35S by end of this year when latest batch is delivered soon.
Also Russian attack helicopter aviation has already beed massively revived and modernized with more than a 100 attack gunships build since 2008 for Russian VVS Ka52 36 production models delivered and more than 40 by end of this year 120+ planned for VVS and about 60+ planned for Russian Navy
Mi28 about 60+ production models build and in VVS service, will be more than 70 by end of this year and about 150+ planned
Mi35 about 20+ production models build for Russian VVS and about 60+ planned
Also many new Mi17 build for Russian VVS
Also a relaivelly large number 100+ modernized Mi24 should remain in service by 2020
Again, i was ONLY dealing with numbers regrading UPGRADED and NEW-BUILT aircraft by 2020. There will be of course un-upgraded aircraft of various types still in service in 2020, about 30% of the existing fleet if we go by press statements. They will be all replaced in the 2021-2025 timeframe.
Btw, haven’t compiled new and upgraded helos and transport numbers yet.
mack8I am not sure why PAK-FA number is 60. once it enter serial production in 2016 by that time industrial capacity will be developed for large yearly production.
Each year the claim for larger buys grows (2000 in total). so excluding helicopters. it is 1015 aircraft. So you exclude 100 transport/AWACS/Tanker/special mission.it still leaves 915 aircraft. now exclude 200 Yak-130 trainers. 715 combat aircraft still left. which gives 250 to 300 number for PAK-FA.
Well i was focusing on the 2020 time frame only for which there are more or less some figures available to work with, not after, and i’ve tried to get my figures from articles and reliable enough news as i pointed out, i didn’t wanted to make numbers out of this air. Obviously T-50 will be in production well after 2020 too, but speculating how many will be bought in total is difficult.
Regarding numbers , i think the most quoted figures BY 2020 ONLY is 600 aircraft of all types (including transports, trainers etc), and over 1000 helicopters. There will be of course more aircraft and helicopters ordered after 2020.
mack8There are 124 Su-34 on order to be delivered by 2020, so replacing the Su-24M is a long process. Meanwhile upgrading part of the Su-24M fleet offer this otherwise obsolete aircraft a useful increase in capability until they are eventually replaced, the units operating upgrades birds being logically the last ones to switch to Su-34. There are apparently well over 200 Su-24M and MR, so the current Su-34 order won’t be enough to replace them one for one (some sources say recce configured Su-34s might take the role of the Su-24MR) there will be more orders after 2020 (a figure of at least 200 Su-34s required in total was vehiculated i think), so upgrading some Su-24Ms to serve until then is sensible enough i guess.
mack8That’s alot of money there. Surely if they want to they can easily reach the minimum 200 fighters (though imo they need 300 at least to be equal to KSA and Turkey).
36 F-16, 72 Su-30 and/or Su-35, 72 MiG-35 and 36 KAI T-50 plus 6-8 advanced AEWs can easily be achieved!
Imo, the french and the british must be mad for making crap offers to a potentially very important future customer like Iraq, but i guess their governments are in the hands of US, even if it means BILLIONS lost for their own countries’ defence industry. (same like the Egypt story, the french were not INTERESTED to offer the Rafale to them! Are they nuts or what?)
They can get all the stuff that they need and is refused by the yanks, and China can start becoming an important weapons supplier by delivering and array of UAVs (refused by the americans) to help against the terrorist threat. This, IF there is the will and foresight in the iraqi leadership. I’m just hoping the russians won’t cave in to whatever pressure and /or empty promises the yanks, saudis, turks, israelis will put on them like with Iran, that would be a bummer…
mack8Zhukovsky MiGs:
747
http://russianplanes.net/id122484
741, march
http://russianplanes.net/id122471
upgraded SMT:
http://russianplanes.net/id122431
mack8mack8If you like so much the “USA strong!!!!111!!!” then why don’t you move over there? And take those government spineless serfs with you too, please… would do this great country and these great people a favour.
May i remind you that at the hands of the very iraqis were are talking about now, your beloved AIM-7M and AIM-9M were proved to be rather easy to defeat and flame eaters respectively in 1991, and that from an opponent that didn’t even used ECM pods or internal jammers as far as i’m aware during air combat in that war, and only a part of their fighter fleet had flare dispensers (which proved very effective when used).
So what do you think the situation with largely the SAME missiles, 20 years later, versus state of the art equipped opponents-AIM-120C, AIM-9X, ASRAAM, Meteor in the future etc. will be ? 10% hits if they’re lucky- and if they survive to even launch any missiles?
Oh and regarding your “superior” Block-52, maybe on paper, with the latest missiles, it is far superior to a legacy MiG-29, yes. But the AIM-7 and 9M are roughly equal to R-27R and R-73 and actually inferior in some respects. The radar detection range for the APG-68(V)9 of 130km vs a 5 sqm target in a good day vs N-019s 70-80km ( though some account put that figure at 100km in a good day) for the same is largely unusable , because the ranges of the BVR missiles are about the same, plus the MiG will no doubt pick up the APG-68 on the RWR. The only difference MIGHT be made by the F-16s ECM system, IF it is usable in any form, and IF it will be programmed to actually jam the N-019, and maybe AWG-9.
mack8Thanks JSR. So are they getting an extra squadron (or more?) of SM3s or not ? They are mentioned in the first part of the article, but not the second (unless they are already built and on verge of delivery?).
mack8Anything else that the iraqis evaluated or are interested is above the NEW junk F-16s, even the JF-17, because one, it will have SD-10 missiles, and two it will be pretty much unknown to Iraq’s neighbours, so with it’s plus and minuses it can actually stand up if need be to a turkish F-16 or even a saudi F-15S (i’m not saying it is a “better” aircraft that those, but at least the iraqis won’t find out that their computers froze, or the radar won’t lock, or the missiles are going in the other direction etc…)
For a cost of as much as 6.5 billion for those F-16s, their deterrence value is practically nil, maybe only against Iran, and even there the F-16 will be pressed to stay on top of iranian MiG-29s and even the few F-14s. By the way, some of you should cut the patronizing “oh why do you need better aircraft/missiles than we gave you, what, are you preparing for a war ?!”, and look up what deterrence means, and also ask yourselves the same question about the saudis, turks etc, why do they need all those fancy toys (not to mention the monstruous american military spending, but hey, at least they proved that they actually DO go to war against any poor weak *******s they can justify it -or just lie- with the “toys” they buy).
Buying those F-16 is a huge waste, either they were coerced by the “liberating” yanks (like apparently they did with many of those small polish or ukrainian deals), they probably went to the new government THEY installed and said “we’ve put you here, now show your gratitude and buy our crap, or else!” or perhaps it’s simply an attempt of the iraqi government to appease the americans and avoid getting into their crosshairs again, at least for the time being. I’ve tried to calculate once how much stuff they are buying or will buy from the americans, and it’s on or around 25 BILLION already! Most of that, especially the strategic systems (fighters, tanks, SAMs) are inferior crap to pretty much anything their strong neighbours (Turkey, KSA, Iran) have unfortunately (except maybe Iran).
The sooner they look somewhere else and get actual relevant and competent systems, the better. In order to curb this grievous terrorist threat they are confronting with now, they need the strongest military they can get as a DETERRENT, those terrorists are coming and/or are sponsored from the outside, and of course their “neighbours” can afford to mess with them now because they can’t strike back . It will be a different story if the iraqi army will have half a million well prepared and equipped soldiers, 200-300 good fighters, and 2500-3000 good tanks, and a strong AD network (and preferably also a ballistic deterrent too). Their neighbours and other regional opponents will think twice then to support or send terrorists into Iraq.
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