mack8What I find most astonishing about all this is the non-zero chance of major conflict between NATO and Russia emerging out of the Ukrainian crisis. It is IN-*******-CREDIBLE to think that conflict is more plausible today than at most points during the Cold War. And the responsibility for that must be laid clearly at the feet of the generation of western politicians and bureaucrats who haven’t the slightest inkling of strategic thought.
George Kennan warned the world twenty years ago that expanding NATO eastward was a disastrous miscalculation that would eventually lead to conflict with Russia (which he also correctly predicted we would blame on Russian aggression). Today, we have heavyweights like Lech Walesa warning of the dire consequences of sending arms and supplies to Ukraine as many western politicians are now advocating. Meanwhile, the reality-TV-show circus of blunderers in the form of Obama, Cameron, et al. seem intent on spiralling this situation well and truly out of control. Until now the damage these people (and their predecessors) have wrought has been limited by their selection of targets: Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq, etc. (no consolation to the citizens of those nations) But this is something altogether different.
Unless some grown-ups take control of this situation fast and begin negotiating for Ukraine to serve as a neutral buffer state, I fear the very worst out of all this. And of course, under almost all conceivable scenarios it is Ukraine’s people who will suffer the most from the totally inept bumbling of the west, as they have to date.
The same unsettling feeling i’ve begun to feel after reading in the US-led media that despite all this, read “evil Putin and Russia’s aggressive invasion of the peace loving people of Ukraine that the US only want it to be free and democratic let’s arm Ukraine let’s expand NATO let’s create rapid reaction force against evil Putin and Russia let’s sanction evil Putin and Russia!!!111!!!11!!”, a war between Russia and the US-led NATO is being impossible. I think anyone with a head can realize for themselves that when the US and their cronies say something, the truth and intentions are probably the exact opposite of what they say. Are the lunatics preparing to and pushing Europe to a war against Russia??! Are they beginning to zombify peoples into being passive to all out nuclear war?! (just like the continuous wars in the last 25 years). This is beyond scary and beyond any political views or games. Maybe the hawk nutters in the Pentagon believe they can somehow one-up Russia and launch and all out nuclear war betting on little damage in return and having the “action” happening mainly in Europe and Russia- there was a creepy article from some years back speaking of the US’s nuclear primacy and the risk of an all out nuclear war precisely because of that. One has to be crazy to believe the russians are dumb and just stand to get butchered like that, they won’t go down without a fight. Regardless, in such a scenario Europe will have practically been melted to glass literally, we will almost all be dead, charred, burned alive. It’s beyond scary.
I’ll just say this to anyone who can think for himself though (and no i am NOT crazy): while it may sound surreal and impossible, if this happens and you will find yourself one of the few survivors, remember WHO started this and did this. It should never be forgotten if we are still going to survive as a species. REMEMBER.
mack8Apply to Lt. Anderson & Paralay, derailers in chief.
That’s beyond rich coming from you, don’t you think? 😡
As expected though, no whiff of a mod doing anything about this topic, even if a few days ago the following has been posted in the MH17 topic:
Thread cleaned up.
The one who derails it again with their political views or propaganda will get a ban for disruptive behavior. This thread is to discuss the shoot down of MH17, not to try to show the world how Russia / Ukraine / NATO / the USA are good or evil.
This is an aviation forum, let’s stick to it. If you wish to open your political blog, this isn’t the place.
I hope I’m clear.
Presumably, Schurem and Swerve f.e. are not using this whole topic a platform for their political views and propaganda?
Hell, considering past actions of the mods here, it is ME who might get banned here for daring to point this… 😡
mack8A blatantly politically motivated topic from the get go and the poster has the nerve to say this:
Please keep things on topic, no politics, military aviation only.
Would the moderators see fit to intervene, or that only happens when someone dares to disagree with the official White House line… 😡
mack8Hell i was expecting it to be offline for a year. Perhaps the damage was not that bad then.
Berkut, you mentioned earlier that the prototype numbering might have changed for the subsequent airframes. Any more details on that? Thanks.
mack8You mean the downward firing CHFL dispenser? (didn’t noticed until your post)
Domna Su-30SMs:
mack8Do not have access to read that article, but i would caution that is likely mr. Cooper’s evaluation of the russian and chinese aviation industries might be heavily influenced by his (demonstrated) strong russophobe sentiments, unfortunately.
Now, me i have immense admiration and respect for China’s achievements in the aviation (and pretty much everything else) domain, but i would say it’s quite premature to say the chinese aviation industry is ahead of Russia’s right now. Especially in the last 20 years, the base for the huge advances of it’s aviation and associated industry is russian technology (radars, aircraft themselves, missile technology, assistance and so on). Today the best in production chinese aircraft are the J-11B and soon to be J-16, J-15, J-10A and now B, L-15, plus older generation aircraft- but with state of the art electronics, and thoroughly redesigned in the last 2 cases- like JH-7A and H-6K or JL-9. As you can see most of these are either local variants of russian Su-27/33, or have benefited from russian input (L-15), or local deep upgrades (H-6K, JL-9), and most are still heavily reliant on russian (or ukrainian) engines (AL-31, D-30KP, AI-222 etc.). Even the latest prototypes like J-20 and Y-20 are said to have benefited from russian and ukrainian assistance, and (like J-31) are still powered by russian engines.
However China actually outmatches Russia as far as modern combat aircraft are concerned, China has more of them built in the last 15 years or so, i would rate the 300 J-10 and 250 J-11A/B or Su-30MKK as superior to legacy MiG-29s and Su-27s, even SM, but like i said the increasing production and delivery of modern russian fighters is constantly reducing this advantage, plus China does not have something in the league of the 120 MiG-31s or so (the 150 or so J-8 have of course modern electronics, but nowhere near the raw capability of the MiG-31). Not sure how to rate the 250 or so JH-7A, but it certainly has state of the art electronics as compared to most Su-24M/MR. Same as Q-5 (on it’s way out anyway as far as i know) vs. Su-25, though the Su-25 is likely better at the CAS role. Strategic aviation is though a domain Russia still have a big advantage, even if the new H-6K have state of the art electronics, while older H-6s are upgraded too.
In the civil aviation domain thing are less favourable, as ARJ-21 production has not even taken off yet, C919 is still a project so in this domain China is still far back.
By comparison, despite 15 years lost in the post-soviet meltdown, Russia’s increasing production relies on Su-30SM, Su-35, Su-34, Yak-130, MiG-29SMT and soon to be MiG-35 (plus upgrades to MiG-31 and other legacy aircraft) which in general apart from being completely russian, i would rate them (or at least the Sukhois) still ahead to varying degrees to the current chinese counterparts. As far as civil aviation is concerned (not being exactly up to date there), like i said at this time there is really no comparison yet, SSJ goes in full swing right now for instance. More knowledgeable (into russian civil aviation) members can hopefully tell us more here.
Still, China is advancing at breakneck speed, so in 10 years time i would say they will be fully and completely on their own feet, especially the all-critical engine technology so it’s ten or even better, 15 years from now when we should have this discussion again. Indeed, i do believe that eventually it is beyond that time when China’s aviation industry could actually outmatch the russian one, not as much as technologically but in size, raw numbers and diversification. After all, China should become world’s number one superpower sometime before the middle of this century, they certainly have the manpower and the capability for it.
mack8Thanks Berkut, been actually trying to find those pics.
As for the Ka-52, the camo seems to be about same style as the new one for Mi-28 and Mi-35 innit?
mack8Paralay, is that just fan-art photoshopped from a B-2 or it is actually close to the real configuration of PAK-DA (grid intakes, winglets etc.)? Thanks.
mack8Thanks for the insight Berkut.
mack8Btw, looks like there might not be any new prototypes this year.
Any additional info Berkut? Would this be because future airframes will have significant changes based on flight testing so far (sorta like J-20 had)? If my memory doesn’t fail me LIS at KnAAZ was supposed to receive T-50-6-1 (or was it -2?) for testing in May this year, does that mean it will be a static or the whole schedule changed? Thanks.
mack8Holy crap, did he managed to recover ok? Why do they keep doing these single wheel landings…:eek:
mack8When it comes to air strikes and air cover this conflict affects Iran who has an up and running air force send them 10 high time Mirage F-1’s (a type already in services) from French stocks and drip feed them weapons to use add to this 10 or so Cobra AH-1’s from US stocks also a type in services with Iran and that way all that has happened is we have added 20 old but capable platforms with limited life to the region
Actually, all it takes to keep the iranians reasonably effective against a hypothetical ISIS advance are spare parts and some “non-threatening” (to Israel and GCC cronies) munitions for their aircraft and helicopters, mostly of US origin. I was looking through some figures, they are debatable of course but an influx of spare parts could make fully functional (at least air to ground), something like 40 plus F-14, 50 to 70 F-4, 50 or so F-5 of various types, this in addition to spare parts from Russia and France for 20 or so Mirage F1 and 30 or so Su-22M (both ex-iraqi) types, all this in addition to 24 or so MiG-29, a similar number of Su-24 and 20 or so F-7. Helicopters wise, some outlets like IISS suggest something like 60 AH-1 plus about 300 or so assorted other helos (mostly Bell-205, 206, 214, but others like Mi-17 etc.)
In addition they have 20 or so EMB-312 plus 40 or so PC-7 which would of course be excellent COIN aircraft.
One can assume at the moment serviceability must be very low, but even restoring and upgrading all these assets to reasonable operational effectiveness coupled with reasonable training for the aircrews would provide a huge force far in excess of what Iraq and even Syria have available at the moment.
Of course like i mentioned the AIPAC would go absolutely berzerk if anything like this transpires.
mack8Our leadership is even worse than our financial state, mind you, so it was not unreasonable to expect those criminals to actually ruin us even more while at the same time do what’s morally wrong.
Nic
Perhaps you guys should get out those guillotines again, now would be a jolly good time to put them to good use on those who are selling your (once powerful and proud) country to a foreign empire.
If the french leadership would have any cojones left (like de Gaulle had in 1966) they would sell Russia not only those Mistrals, but also say two or even more of those very nice DCNS carriers if the russians would be interested, they would get some badly needed ships to replace Kuznetsov and strengthen the navy well before the domestic preparation and production would be ready. Technology transfers from DCNS would greatly speed things up. The gains for the local french industry and workers would also be astronomical!
As for the swiss, one can image they were threatened at “gun” point, gangster-style by the americans to do this.
mack8Just in case this has been missed among the vociferous russophobe rantings here, a call to reason from none other than AMERICAN ex-intelligence veterans:
http://consortiumnews.com/2014/07/29/obama-should-release-ukraine-evidence/
mack8To add insult to injury, the few MiG-21s back from Ukraine (not sure how many) had poor quality overhauls done on them, there was an article recently listing a whole lot of problems with them. Not unexpected, considering what a mess Ukraine is now, and they’ve never been great at “quality” anyway. Maybe the croats should have sent them to Aerostar, perhaps they could have done a more decent job (although still have my doubts about them too), but that’s just hindsight.
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