Russia Joins the Fifth-Gen Game
Konstantin Makienko
Russia flew a prototype of its fifth-generation fighter on January 29, 2010, in what analysts agree was a major milestone for the national aerospace industry. The Sukhoi corporation’s T-50 jet, developed under the PAK FA (Future Front Line Aircraft System) program, took off from a Komsomolsk-upon-Amur airfield for a 47-minute maiden flight. The aircraft is the first radically new Russian design that looks likely to enter commercial production since the first MiG-29 and Su-27 prototypes of the previous fourth generation took to the air back in 1977.
The maiden flight of the PAK FA has broken America’s complete monopoly on the development and production of fifth-generation fighter jets. It has also demonstrated that while not America’s equal militarily, Russia is still a solid second in terms of defense technology, outranking both Western Europe and China and punching well above its economic weight.
But while the maiden flight itself was a major coup for Russia, the success of the PAK FA program is not a foregone conclusion. Serious financial, technical and even political hurdles still remain. They have the potential to cause major delays or even stall the program completely.
– In terms of technology, the biggest worry is the remaining uncertainty over the so-called “next engine”. The existing T-50-01 prototype is equipped with deeply upgraded fourth-generation engines. And while they provide the necessary amount of thrust (even for supersonic cruising), they are not up to the fifth-generation spec in terms of the thrust-to-weight ratio and fuel economy. Many observers are skeptical about Russia’s chances of creating a proper fifth-generation engine that could compete with America’s Pratt & Whitney F119. Problems also remain with the new radar and other onboard equipment, but recent progress suggests that the risks here are moderate.
– The financial risks stem from uncertainty over Russia’s economic prospects, which are too dependent on exports of oil, gas and other natural resources. The PAK FA project could well grind to a halt if the country suffers another economic shock like the one it went through in 2009, when the economy shrank by 8 per cent and the budget deficit spiraled to 5.9 per cent.
– The political risk is that cumbersome Russian bureaucracy could well stymie Indian participation in the program. And without the Indians, mass production becomes commercially unviable because the Russian Defense Ministry’s order for the new jets will be very modest.
But although it would take at least another decade to turn PAK FA into a proper combat system, the maiden flight of the T-50 has been a major boost for the Russian aerospace industry. Its existing customers can now see a clear way forward for their national air forces, and their choice of Russia as a supplier has been vindicated. Russia can now negotiate with potential foreign customers from a much stronger position, and that includes civilian contracts as well as military. Several countries, including Libya and Vietnam, have already expressed their interest in the future Russian fifth-generation fighter.
Of course, any serious military, political or commercial dividends of the PAK FA program hinge on Russia’s ability to take it from the prototype stage to mass production. If that happens, America’s F-35 and the Russian T-50 will be the only two players on the world market for combat aircraft after 2020. The European offerings, which are all based on essentially fourth-generation technology, will be marginalized, and Europe itself will most likely be eliminated as a serious competitor. That opens up very alluring and hitherto inconceivable prospects of cooperation between the Russian aerospace industry and some European aerospace powers which still retain a large degree of sovereignty and independence from the United States.
At present, very little is known about the T-50’s onboard equipment, and even less about its future missile systems, so there is no point trying to compare the Russian and American fifth-generation fighters in terms of their combat capability. But it would not be much of a stretch to say that regardless of the T-50’s actual strengths and weaknesses, it is guaranteed to seize up to 30 per cent of the market simply by virtue of not being American. The new Russian-Indian fighter clearly has excellent prospects on the Asia-Pacific markets, especially those which Russia has already staked. What is more, when paired with the Su-35, the T-50 could be an even more enticing offering that America’s much-vaunted bestseller of the future, the F-35.
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