Well I wonder if any knew owner would continue to operate from NRN. If he could get slots at DUS however ….

4 Mirages, 3 P3s and 6 F7s?

To be fair any package is going to stand a chance if they get the hits and in the right places. How many ASMs can a P3 carry? I assume its more than 2 or even 4 and I expect it would be a lot more. If you can get them into position without being detected or successfully intercepted they would have a good chance causing some serious damage. Are the Mirages carrying ASMs? If so how many? 2 each? Coming from adifferent direction very fast, very low? Well if so you have divided the defender resources and complicated their response.

What should the IN commander do? Go after the P3s who can fire a large amount of ASMs if they get in range, go after the faster moving Mirages assuming these are detected of course, or go after both? Surely the answer is to go after both, there really isn’t a choice. You can’t forego one threat in favour of maximising defensive effect on another. So at this point the question is one of resources. How many defenders do you have? What defensive systems do you have and what layers of defence are available?

Then we come onto the F7s. I know far less about this aircraft than I should. Is it a fighter, fighter/bomber, ASM shooter, escort fighter? What are its weapons, radar, range and payload capabilities. At this point some might say what are the calibre of the pilots but I don’t think the abilities of the PAF crews can be called into question. If I am right in assuming that the F7s are a bona fide escort group then the IN defenders not only have to direct resources onto the attacking P3s and Mirages, they also have to deal with the F7s tasked with defending the strike package. So in truth the IN defenders will have quite a job to deal with but that doesn’t mean the strike package is going to succeed. Personally I’d like a few more assets but hey what commander wouldn’t and also you can’t bring into question the abilities of the Indian Navy, their commanders, aircrews or ratings. If you are asking me the risk to both sides is not worth the bother. Either way it would be a close run thing leading to yet another stalemate.

Don’t get me wrong. Staff colleges in Pakistan and India will be working through these problems on a day to day basis and if they are as professional as I think they are they will be relying on the politicians to make sure they never have to do it for real. If the shooting starts, whatever the outcome it will not be the fault of the troops but rather the fault of the respective governments for failing to maintain the peace.

Does this go some way to revealing my views on the subject? 🙂

I strongly disagree with this assesment.

It strongly favors the attacker.

One thing you forget the take into consideration is the KA-31 AEW helicopter fleet. They should have no problem to detect the P-3 well outside the double launch range of the Harpoon. Given the speed advantage the Harrier FRS.1 enjoys over the P-3 it is unlikely to come close to launch range without being interecepted. However this intercept will draw away the airborne CAP. However every commander would launch the next CAP when commiting the airborne CAP. We can also assume that a further pair of hairs would be made ready to launch.

So the combined F-7 and Mirage III strike force would face at least 2 FRS.1 while being detected outside their weapons range. I believe that the F7 should be able to fight off the first pair heading their way. If htey can detect them early enough and they are not veectored into a favorable position by the Indian AEW support.
#The second CAP will launch once the incoming strike is detected. They would have to hurry to get the Mirages before they launch the missiles however. So 4-8 missiles would be inbound the carrier group. They would first be engaged by long-range SAMs. I think is is reasonable that at least one would be intercepted. Medium and close range missiles of the escorts should take 2-3 AIM-39 out. Jamming and chaff are reasonable to giude another 3-4 away.

CIWS should be able to get at least 1-2.

So at best 1 Exocets could hit a target.

I think that any comparison to the Falklands campaign is to be examined very carefully. this campaign was special in some aspects, that would not be the case in the conflict described in the first post.

First it was different as that the RN Harriers could project power on the Falklands isles and attack their main target, while the defending Mirage fighters were operating at their absolute maximum range. ,

Secondly the RN enjoyed the all-aspect AIM-9L Sidewinder, which was not matched by any weapon in Argetinian service.

In the PAF vs. IN conflict both sides would be equally equipped with AAMs at the moment.

So the question would be how woul the Indian carrier operate and where. If they stay far away from the Pakistan coast then the KA-31 AEW pickets and the escorts would mean a superior situational awareness for the defenders. That situation strongly favor the defenders. It will also mean that the carrier group will be subjected to only one threat axis in the AA arena. All this should see a victory by the IN.

However if the carrier is used to project power ashore and the Harriers might even trying to fly some strikes, then the carrier group must come closer to shore. Which means they will become within the range of coastal surveillance installations, which means thier position will be fixed by the PAF. That means the threat axis becomes wider. Which means AEW assests and CAPs have to cover more area. That means there will be more gaps an attacker could exploit.