Finally I am finished with this!

Okay, here is the final final final product. Hope you enjoy! Thanks for all the comments and angry disagreements, most entertaining and sometimes informative. 😀

Its about 2,000 words long and has a table that I don’t know how to embed in a forum post so am just posting a link and the first para.

Analysis of the PAF vs. IAF – Air Combat Over the Subcontinent

Pakistan and India. Two regional powers, frequently at war, armed to the teeth, possessing nuclear weapons and with no end in sight to their mutual animosity. War in the Subcontinent today has very high stakes. But none higher than in their respective air arms. Given the importance of air combat to modern warfare, a crucial factor to analyze the outcome of any conflict between them becomes analyzing the viability of each air force. For wars today always begin in air combat, and the successor there often has Fate decide in its favor.

Will shortly post the final product from my analysis. I have balanced it out significantly from comments and cues from keypub.

Just one advice.
Please remove the footnote from your posts, i.e. To underestimate your enemy is the biggest mistake.🙂

haha. I second that.

Edit: Meanwhile, here is my latest spreadsheet:
Spreadsheet.

This discussion is futile based on jingoism and not reason. There is no doubt that on paper IAF is much superior to PAF in almost all aspects. In a classic IAF versus PAF battle, IAF will ultimately prevail, however PAF can inflict enough damage to the Indians to think twice before they initiate hostilities. Also Pakistanis have a way of springing surprises which makes the outcomes uncertain for the IAF. They did it with their nuclear capability and then the missile capability and PAF can do the same with a so far unannounced BVR and standoff capability. If IAF was themselves so confident about their ability to dominate the skys with little downside they would have done so during the current escalation. The problem with the above scenario and this discussion is that in reality it will not be an exclusivly PAF vs. IAF conflict. In case of a war all elements will come into play. Pakistan can retaliate to an IAF airstrike with cruise or a ballistic missile stirkes. Other factors also can come into play for example right now all the northern plains of India and Pakistan are covered with a thick fog which is yearly phenomenon this time of the year and under these conditions air operations are next to impossible and any aerial superiority is effectively neutralized.

Very well put, most balanced perspective on this thread!

Let me address this JF-17 issue, since it tends to become a really touchy one.

So, the original deal required that PAF purchases 150 and PLAAF purchases 250. However, PLAAF was never that excited about JF-17 in the beginning. And it never appeared as if they were putting in an order until after 04 came out. JF-17 improved due to a lot of good work from CAC and might be able to satisfy PLAAF requirements. And it seemed like CAC was developing ground attack version and twin-seat version (which could be the basis for a LIFT in the future). Since the current JF-17 is designed PAF, PLAAF is unlikely to accept it the way it is. It might accept JF-17 once WS-13 becomes available and also performs well against J-10/11B at CFTE. It might get orders from the twin-seater version. All I can say is that the article I posted last time provides some optimism for the aircraft. But we will have to wait, people who don’t follow PLAAF do not understand that things can change and you really have to be patient and wait.

Its only because people cannot wait and see that we hang around in these forums at all 😀 Otherwise we could just wait and see how the world turns out in 100 years, no?

1. PAF Had no BVR capability until AMRAAM and SD-10 were recently ordered. All of the “PAF has BVR” nonsense was people (mostly reporters) misinterpreting the whole H-2/H-4 issue, which were found to be air to ground weapons.

2. Were it me I’d rate the air combat effectiveness of the MiG-21BISON significantly above that of the PAF Mirages and arguably equal to the PAF F-7PGs. The Mirages have no BVR capability to consider and aren’t going to be carrying an AAM load exceeding that of the BISON anyway. From an air combat standpoint the BISON is more effective in a 1v1 fight than a Mirage III/V. First shot, move in for an R-73 shot if you missed.

3. PAF SAM support is a complete disaster except at low altitudes where air combat performance breaks down anyway. They have one HQ-2 battery, that makes up their “long-range” SAM force. Everything else is short-ranged and low altitude, predominantly MANPADS and Chinese shorter-range systems. I’d leave the SAM support element out of it and concentrate on the airpower element. And for the record IAF SAM support is no better, they rely on S-125 batteries at airfields. Neither nation has a serious SAM defense network, although a few hundred MKIs does make that a secondary concern on India’s part if you ask me.

4. Air combat effectiveness of the MiG-27 should probably be pretty low, no AI radar and no serious WVR AAM as far as I know makes for a very poor air combat platform.

Very interesting analysis.

And good job everyone, this has been kept civil despite the potentially volatile subject matter. Just goes to show you that it is in fact possible to have a mature discussion around here.

First of all to everyone: Thank you so much for your replies! Excellent!
SOC: Having visited PAF bases and followed the PAF over 12 years, I can assuredly say they have had and have other BVRs (AAMs). I am assuming this to be the case in my model and any serious Pakistan defense analyst would as well. This, with other upgrades to the Mirages make them very potent.

I am assuming that A2G will also be an important aspect as destroying enemy aircraft on the ground or important installations is a significant element of the air war. I therefore am holding higher numbers of effectiveness for the MiG-27. Of course, a2a is more important, but strike missions should also be considered relevant.

PS: I agree with you that the PAF F-7PGs and Bisons are about equally effective (in their own ways) and I have assigned both 0.75. I think that’s fair.